First Pitch: Ranking known Juan Soto suitors based on rumored wish list items

With the MLB offseason officially under way, the Juan Soto sweepstakes have officially begun. It's not too often that you see one of the best players in the game hit free agency at just 26 years old, and the outfielder has a chance to cash in to a historic degree. Whether Soto eclipses the $700 million Shohei Ohtani got last offseason from the Los Angeles Dodgers remains to be seen, but we know Scott Boras is going to try to do just that. Regardless, it's going to be one of the biggest contracts in sports history.

With that in mind, not all 30 teams are realistically involved in the bidding for Soto. The money will just be too unreasonable for most small-market teams to even think about. Just seven teams are known to be involved, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, with another four teams being labeled as "real mysteries."

What Soto is looking for beyond money in free agency is unknown. Things like the ability to win and long-term security are certainly up there, and playing in a big market would probably help as well. As of this point, these wish list items are nothing more than rumors. But rumors are all we have to go on at this point, so let's give it a whirl: Here are all seven known Soto suitors, ranked based on how desirable they are according to Soto's rumored wish-list items.

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7) The Rays being involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes is fun, but won't amount to anything

The Tampa Bay Rays being revealed as a team interested in Juan Soto is obviously pretty shocking, but also not completely unexpected. They've been linked to some big-name free agents in recent years, and even made a surprisingly competitive offer to Freddie Freeman before he signed with the Dodgers ahead of the 2022 campaign. With that being said, though, they're not getting Soto.

Soto is expected to sign a contract worth at least $500 million and likely into the $600 million or $700 million range. His AAV will presumably be at least $40 million per year. The Rays opened the 2024 campaign with a payroll under $100 million. How likely is it that they allow one player to make around or even more than half of that total?

Could the Rays sign him? Sure. Would it be fun? Absolutely. Is it something actually worth thinking about? Not in the slightest. Even if the Rays had the money and the willingness to make a competitive offer to Soto, he'd probably prefer a bigger market anyway. Fun dream, but not worth considering.

6) The Giants don't have much to offer Juan Soto

The San Francisco Giants have the money to give Juan Soto what he wants. We saw them offer Shohei Ohtani what he wanted to come to the Bay Area before he eventually joined the Dodgers. We saw them offer Aaron (and Arson) Judge an enormous amount of money to return home. We saw them sign Carlos Correa before his physical went awry. They've got the money in a big market. But what else does this franchise offer?

San Francisco went 80-82 this past season and has made the playoffs just once in the last eight years. Their best hitters are Matt Chapman, a streaky third baseman, and Tyler Fitzgerald, who broke out last season but has a limited Major League track record. One of their two best starting pitchers, Blake Snell, is now a free agent. Their once-lockdown closer, Camilo Doval, was moved out of that role due to his struggles last season and could be traded this winter. To make matters worse, they're in the same division as the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres. Even with Soto, they could easily finish in fourth place again in 2025.

As if the team situation wasn't bad enough, Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the mMajors. It ranked 24th in park factor per Baseball Savant, which for an offense-first player like Soto is the kiss of death. Not to mention that the outfield dimensions aren't exactly stellar for left-handed hitters.

The Giants have the money, but the team isn't very good, the division is loaded and the ballpark is not the best fit. The money makes them part of the conversation, but Soto has better options.

5) If the Red Sox remember they're the Red Sox, they'd be a fun Juan Soto destination

How wild would this be? Could you imagine seeing the Boston Red Sox steal Juan Soto away from their most hated nemesis? That would instantly reignite what has been a bit of a quiet rivalry in recent years.

The thing holding Boston back regarding Soto is their refusal to spend like the Red Sox of old. Despite glaring needs last offseason, the team refrained from making big moves. The biggest moves that they did make (signing Lucas Giolito signing and trading away Chris Sale) wound up aging horribly, and the Boston skidded to a distant third-place finish. But if (and it's a big if) the Red Sox are willing to spend like the Red Sox, Soto is in the cards.

They've certainly got the money to get it done, and Soto would then be joining a team on the rise. Sure, Boston faltered down the stretch this past season to finish with a record of 81-81, but they've got a core in place with Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas, plus young pitchers like Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. They've got one of the best farm systems in the Majors, and most of their big-name prospects are very close to being MLB-ready. The Red Sox also happen to have Fenway Park, a great hitter's park, to pitch to Soto, and they can even stick him in left field with the Green Monster behind him to help his so-so defense.

On paper, the Red Sox are a great fit for Soto considering their market, their roster, their farm system and their ballpark, but their recent refusal to spend like the Red Sox should bump them lower on this list.

4) The Blue Jays hope Juan Soto boards the plane ride that Shohei Ohtani missed

For a brief moment, it appeared as if Shohei Ohtani was going to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately, Ohtani wasn't the celebrity on that plane to Canada, and he signed with the Dodgers soon after.

Despite that gut-wrenching miss, and a disastrous 2024 campaign that saw them finish in last place in the AL East, the Jays are big-game hunting again and are expected to be in the mix for Soto. With that Ohtani money still in hand, they've got the funds to make the outfielder an enticing offer and steal him away from their AL East rivals.

Unfortunately for the Jays, there isn't much else to sell Soto on. The team, as evidenced by their brutal 2024, is not very good. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being on expiring contracts doesn't inspire confidence that they'll be good in the future. The Jays inking Soto makes it more likely that at least one, if not both of them depart after the year, at which point Soto would have some real concerns about his supporting cast.

The Jays' best pitchers — Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt — are all 30 years old or older. Their best relievers, Jordan Romano and Chad Green, are both over 30 and are set to be free agents after 2025 as well. Their farm system, even after selling at the trade deadline, is still among the league's worst, which limits their future upside. They've got the money and the proven willingness to spend it, which puts them above Boston for now, but their lack of much else to offer Soto makes them long shots at best.

3) The Yankees need Juan Soto more than Juan Soto needs the Yankees

If we're being objective, the New York Yankees need Juan Soto more than Soto needs them. The Yankees need Soto to win a World Series, but Soto has better options out there.

The Yankees, being the Yankees, have a lot going for them. Wearing pinstripes is special. Playing at Yankee Stadium for the most historic franchise in the sport is special. Being in the New York market is awesome. Playing in front of an extremely passionate fan base every night is an added bonus. Hitting in front of Aaron Judge in a ballpark that is perfect for Soto's swing is even better. But despite all that, there are some questions that need to be asked.

Even if the Yankees do bring Soto back, will they win the World Series? Anything can happen, but with several holes to fill and others likely departing in free agency, will this team be better in 2025 than it was in 2024? Can Soto trust Judge to find a way to contribute in October?

Also, what's the money going to look like? Hal Steinbrenner has not spent like George. He has spent a lot relative to most, but these aren't the "Evil Empire" Yankees who go after every big-name free agent. The Yankees weren't even the highest offer for Judge when he was a free agent; will they be for Soto?

The Yankees can win with Soto, but will they give him the best chance to win? They can pay Soto a ton of money, but will they offer him the most money? They can offer him familiarity, comfort, and being a Yankee, but is that really enough? Soto re-signing is absolutely possible, but there are better fits out there.

2) Will any team outbid the Mets for Juan Soto?

The New York Mets are in prime position to land Juan Soto thanks to their owner, Steve Cohen. If this comes down to money — and it very well might — how would the Mets not be the favorites? Cohen has proven on several occasions that he's willing to spend to win, so you better believe that he's going to spend on the generational 26-year-old.

While having money is important, the Mets have even more than that to offer Soto. No, they didn't win the pennant as the Yankees did, but they lost in the NLCS to the same team that the Yankees did in the World Series, and they took L.A. to one extra game. Core players like Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga and Edwin Diaz aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Neither is Cohen. The Mets hired David Stearns, an executive who worked wonders with the small-market Milwaukee Brewers, to run their baseball operations. They have an owner willing to spend what it takes to win, and an executive who has proven he can field winners.

The Mets might not be the Yankees when it comes to popularity, but they are in the same New York market. Citi Field might not be as hitter-friendly as Yankee Stadium, but Soto does have a 1.175 OPS in 35 games throughout his career in Queens, his best mark at any stadium in which he has played in at least 15 games.

The Mets have money to spend thanks to a slew of cash coming off their books, they have a strong farm system, they have a core locked in and they have stability in the organization. If we're talking about teams that have a better chance to win in 2025, it wouldn't be a hot take to pick the Mets with Soto over the Yankees with Soto. Cohen's money makes them, if not the favorites for Soto, right behind whoever is the favorite to land him.

1) The Dodgers have everything Juan Soto could possibly want

Is it the most likely scenario that Juan Soto signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers? Probably not. Should anyone want this to happen? Absolutely not. Can it be ruled out? Unfortunately, no. The Dodgers just won the World Series and should absolutely be seen as a threat to land this offseason's biggest prize.

When Ohtani signed the deal he did to join the Dodgers last offseason, he deferred most of the money for a reason. He wants to win now, and doing so gave L.A. immense flexibility to get deals done. They took advantage of that flexibility by bringing in guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernandez, and it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest to see them make a run at Soto.

Just imagine a top four consisting of Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Soto and Freddie Freeman. How do you pitch to that? It wouldn't even be fair. There's no such thing as a sure thing in baseball, but if the Dodgers got Soto, they'd be as close to a sure thing to winning the World Series every single year as there could be. It'd truly feel like Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors.

The Dodgers have everything he could want. The team is stacked, the market is huge, the stadium is packed every night and they have the money to get a deal done. The only questions are: Does Soto want to go back out west, and does he want to join the team that just beat him? If the answers to those are along the lines of "yes" and "I don't care", then the Dodgers don't have a single thing going against them.

It isn't what anyone who roots for the 29 other teams should be rooting for, but at this point, it sort of feels as if the Dodgers are inevitable.