On Tuesday night, the Indiana Fever lost 85-79 to the Phoenix Mercury, dropping the team to 21-20 and, for the moment, pushing the Fever down into the No. 8 seed in the WNBA playoffs, a half-game behind the No. 7 Storm and a game ahead of the ninth-place Sparks. Notably, all three teams are tied in the loss column, so it's really anyone's guess which of the three misses the playoffs.
Luckily for Indiana's playoff case, their remaining games are against the Sky, Mystics and Lynx. The first two aren't playoff teams. The latter is the No. 1 seed and will have nothing to play for in the season finale against Indiana, unless the Lynx simply want to go hard to prevent the Fever from making the playoffs.
So let's assume Indiana makes the playoffs. The Caitlin Clark injury situation is still hanging heavily over their heads. On Tuesday, Clark was spotted running with the team's backups during their 5-on-0 drills, but head coach Stephanie White made it clear that Clark hasn't done any contact drills yet.
With the regular season winding down, the fact that Clark still feels so far away from returning has to mean we should start doubting the whole idea of Clark returning for the playoffs, right? And if she is out for the playoffs, what does that mean for Indiana?
Without Caitlin Clark, the Fever don't have much of a chance
This isn't just about Clark, though. Injuries have really ravaged this team, with Aari McDonald and Sophie Cunningham injuries being notable impediments to the team this season.
This Fever team had a chance to be something special this year, especially in a world where every good team outside of Minnesota seems to have some kind of major flaw.
Per PBP Stats, the Fever were really, really good when they had their big three on the floor. When all three of Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston have been on the court, the Fever have a net rating of plus-11.04. That drops to plus-4.44 when it's just Mitchell and Boston out there, which is still good, but not quite at the same level.
Maybe a bigger concern for the Fever, though, is simply how the team has played against playoff teams. Clark hasn't played since July 15. Since then, the Fever are 4-7 against teams that are currently in the playoffs, including a 1-4 mark in the last five games against playoff teams.
This is probably where the biggest concern lies. Without Clark's playmaking and shotmaking ability, the Fever don't have the firepower to consistently beat really good basketball teams. Not that having a hobbled Clark would suddenly change things, but it's clear that this version of the Fever we're watching right now just doesn't have the elusive concept of it.
If the Clark-less Fever face the Lynx in the first round, there's pretty much no hope here. Indiana is already 0-2 against the Fever, with both games being played in August, so we know what a matchup of the two teams looks like.
Maybe the Fever can force a Game 3 against the Aces, but that's a big maybe. Yes, Indiana has a win over Vegas since the Clark injury, but that was before the team moved Jewell Loyd to the bench and unlocked its full potential. The Aces are playing the best basketball in the league at the moment, and the Fever aren't winning a series.
Their best bet here is to get to the No. 6 seed, but to do that, they'd need to win out and get some good luck, as the Valkyries are two games up in the loss column. That's probably not happening, but machups with the Dream or Mercury are winnable, even without Clark. I don't think I'd bet on the Fever actually winning those games, and I definitely wouldn't bet on them being any higher than the No. 7 seed, but in theory, it's possible.
In practice, though, the Fever are cruising toward a first-round exit. It's a disappointing end to the season, but without Clark, this team just won't be able to escape the first round.