March Madness Bracket predictions, picks for every game: Caleb Love stops Duke again

The March Madness bracket is here, the field of 68 has been revealed, and now it's time to put pen to paper (or, you know, click the buttons on the app or website of your choosing). Whether you've been watching college basketball religiously since late October or are just here for the NCAA Tournament, everyone's ready to make their predictions from the First Four to the Final Four.

What makes March Madness beautiful, of course, is the amount of chaos that we root for every year. Sure, you don't want your favorite team to be part of that chaos and have your bracket busted early but, at the end of the day, this is the best time for college hoops and sports in general because of how unpredictable a 68-team, seven-round tournament can be.

Even if it's unpredictable, though, that's not going to stop us. Specifically with me, it's not going to stop me from sticking my neck out and making full March Madness bracket predictions with picks for all 67 games in the NCAA Tournament. We'll start with the First Four and make our way all the way to crowning a national champion.

Onto Dayton we go.

First Four predictions for the action in Dayton

In the two 11-seed matchups to start, North Carolina doesn't play in the Mountain West, which has historically struggled in the NCAA Tournament. That's one factor but the Tar Heels have also seemed to find something of a groove down the stretch and, against a SDSU team that's offensively challenged at times, that's enough for me. I'm more confident in Xavier, though, as I simply believe the Musketeers have a better defense than Texas, which will play better no matter which team controls the pace, meaning even if the Longhorns can slow things down.

When it comes to the No. 16 seeds, let's be real, anyone and everyone is just throwing darts trying to predict these games. Alabama State gets the nod simply because St. Francis comes in as by far the worst team in the field of 68, so I'll give the Hornets the edge. I'm actually more confident in Mount St. Mary's advancing, though, as their pace could cause problems for a slow-crawl American team with both squads looking quite similar in terms of overall efficiency.

March Madness Bracket predictions for every First Round game

Upset Alert! Kansas, Ole Miss, Texas Tech all go down, among others

Who doesn't love the upsets and we have some big ones going down, starting with Kansas as Bill Self's team takes on John Calipari and Arkansas. This should be a defensive affair largely but, at the end of the day, I refuse to trust Hunter Dickinson. He's one of the most overrated players in the sport and his 30-year run in college hoops needs to come to an abrupt end.

As for Ole Miss, UNC is a pretty even matchup, only the Tar Heels have underperformed. If they get out of the First Four as I predicted, though, they're going to be a little dangerous. The Rebels don't have someone in the rotation that truly strikes me as a game-changer outside of Sean Pedulla. That's something every team will recognize and will prove to be their Achilles heel.

There are plenty of other upsets, including Missouri, Marquette, Saint Mary's, Memphis, BYU and UCLA all going down. I'm not going to lie to you, though: Texas Tech losing to UNC Wilmington is just a pure homer pick for my alma mater. Feel the Teal, y'all.

Chalk advances at the top of each region

While there is one No. 3 seed going down here, each of the other Top 4 seeds in each region are advancing to the Second Round of March Madness for me. That's probably dangerous because, well, chalk has been dangerous in recent years. Yet, I still am all the way behind it.

The top of college basketball this season, in my opinion, has separated itself from the rest of the country in a pretty meaningful way. While we might see some scares, I think it's far more likely than not that 14 or 15 of these 16 teams advance than any number much lower than that. Though I'm picking UNCW, I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Top 4 seeds go 16-for-16 in the First Round.

Second Round predictions for the NCAA Tournament

Upset Alert! Kentucky, Purdue, Iowa State sent packing in the first weekend

The upsets in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament won't stop after the First Round!

Kentucky is arguably the biggest name to fall in the Second Round here but, with Mark Pope's injuries he continues to deal with, I don't know how you can trust the Wildcats. That's exacerbated by the volatility of Illinois, which feels like a prime candidate to get hot. It won't be a blowout, sure, but the Illini will ge the win.

Beyond that, I just don't trust Purdue. They're a better overall team than McNeese but I also don't believe that they do anything particularly special. Against a good defensive team that plays a similar pace, I do think Will Wade finds a way. Then there's Iowa State. Are they better than North Carolina? The numbers say so — and yet, don't the Tar Heels feel like the team that's going to make the Sweet 16 after getting a little hot in the First Four (and really at the end of the season) and take down a top seed? This is, admittedly, all vibes, but we live on vibes around here.

Rick Pitino wins the battle with Coach Cal

Two pariahs in Lexington walk into a bar (or, you know, an arena) in Providence. There isn't really a punchline here, but Rick Pitino is going to get the best out of John Calipari and Arkansas if the two former Kentucky head coaches clash in the Second Round.

There remains a ton of upside with Arkansas in this tournament — I fully believe that. This team underachieved to many degrees in the regular season. But what stands out is how mightily the Razorbacks struggled against some of the best defensive teams on their schedule (and even some who don't fit that bill). Whether it was Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M or so on, the offense showed it can be severely limited. Well, St. John's is best defensive team in the sport. That worries me too much to think about taking the Hogs to advance in this matchup.

Predicting the Sweet 16 of March Madness

Caleb Love sends Duke packing one final time

Remember the time that Caleb Love, then residing in Chapel Hill, put a dagger in the heart of Coach K not once (shouts to Cameron Indoor) but twice (shouts to the Final Four)? I sure do! While Arizona is a frustrating team, which is largely a mirroring of who Love is as a player, he's also the type of player that can get white-hot and allow his team to feed off that. I'm still skeptical of Duke outside of the ACC against top competition, especially when I don't see reasonably how Flagg is going to be at 100%.

If that's the case, Duke is still good enough to make it out of the first weekend but a powder-keg like Love and Arizona are the exact type of team that could make it all come crumbling down.

Illinois whittles SEC representation down to three

Much like Arizona, Illinois has been a deeply frustrating group throughout the majority of the 2024-25 college hoops season. At their best, however, the Illini are absolutely legit with an impressive resumé of wins. I also come back to their two-point loss to Tennessee in December, though. While it was in Champaign, it gives me quite a bit of hope that Illinois can get revenge and keep taking down SEC teams in the tourney.

Even with Tennessee's stout defense, I have a hard time believing Illinois will shoot 29.4% from the floor and 4-of-23 from deep in a rematch. It's less hard to believe that their defense can limit Tennessee's offense, though. In a game that was decided near the buzzer, that minor switch is enough to push the Illini to the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight predictions for the March Madness Bracket

South Region Champion: 2 Michigan State

I'll say it — I'm glad Michigan State and Auburn didn't have to play for a conference tournament title. Give them some rest. Picking this matchup was like choosing your favorite child, honestly. Having said that, I still trust Tom Izzo slightly more than Bruce Pearl in March while also believing that the Spartans Top 5 defense has the ability to cause Johnni Broome and Co. real issues. Throw in the suspect defense Auburn played down the stretch, Jase Richardson and his cohorts can exploit that to get the best of the No. 1 overall seed.

West Region Champion: 2 St. John's

Florida comes into March Madness as the No. 1 offense in the country according to KenPom. St. John's comes in as the No. 1 defense. Who wins in that matchup? The way that the Red Storm defend on the perimeter continues to stand out. As good as the Gators have been playing, I can't escape the thought that a hero-ball-gone-wrong situation might be awaiting in the NCAA Tournament with Walter Clayton Jr. specifically. The Johnnies are a team to bring that out of him, so Rick Pitino is going back to the Final Four.

East Region Champion: 2 Alabama

There are some concerns with Alabama with the Grant Nelson injury hanging over the Crimson Tide but I still believe that Nate Oats' team, especially against an Arizona team that just runs too hot and cold (as mentioned, the Caleb Love special). With Mark Sears' ability to attack a player like Love on the perimeter in addition to Bama just being better playing at such a fast pace, the Tide will move to the Final Four once again.

Midwest Region Champion: 1 Houston

It's a great run for Illinois, but Houston is just a superior foe in the Midwest Region. We've watched the Cougs in the Big 12 routinely shut down offenses that are as good or even better than the Illini, not to mention more consistent groups. I maintain that Brad Underwood's team can get hot and make an Elite Eight run, but they're going to just simply be outmatched top-to-bottom against Kelvin Sampson's group.

Final Four and National Championship picks for March Madness

Final Four Predictions

While I think Pitino's Johnnies can go on a deep run, at the end of the day, it does feel like their lack of an elite offense is going to catch up to them. Michigan State is the right team to make that happen after a run where it's hard to see that happening. In essence, there are a lot of similarities between Sparty and St. John's but Tom Izzo's team simply plays a more consistent brand of offense. Given that, they'll advance to the title bout.

On the other side of the bracket for the Final Four, there is such a contrast between Alabama (the No. 1 team according to KenPom in terms of Adjusted Tempo) and Houston (360th in tempo). There's never totally an advantage for either side of that equation but, for the Crimson Tide, if they made it this far with Grant Nelson either out or limited, this is where the buck stops. Houston is too good defensively and too efficient and balanced offensively for Nate Oats' team to withstand a pace battle with, so it's the Cougs advancing.

National Championship Predictions

Ultimately, Houston to me feels like the sleeping giant in the NCAA Tournament and Kelvin Sampson is primed to get over the hump. So much oxygen on Selection Sunday was exhausted with Duke and Cooper Flagg's injury, Auburn and their limp to the finish line in the regular season and SEC Tournament, and Florida's hot run they're on. Yet, it didn't feel like many people were keen on mentioning the Cougars.

That wouldn't register in some cases but, when Houston hasn't lost since in overtime by a point to Texas Tech on Feb. 1, it matters. This team is uber efficient on offense, stifling on defense and balanced as they come. I think they're perfectly constructed to cut down the nets in San Antonio, so that's where I'm putting my stock.