MLB Power Rankings: Corbin Burnes preferred destinations based on early free-agency rumors

Juan Soto's free agency has taken up most of the Hot Stove oxygen so far this offseason, and for good reason; players as good and as young as Soto don't hit the market all that often, and his next contract could very well be the richest in MLB history. Soto is the first and biggest domino to fall this winter, and wherever he decides to sign, he'll reshape the landscape of the league.

But while Soto is the most important free agent available, he's far from the only one. This is one of the deepest classes for starting pitching that we've seen in a while, and it's headlined at the top by a bona fide ace: 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.

Burnes might not be as flashy as Soto, but he could have just as big an impact on the 2025 World Series. The righty was brilliant for the Baltimore Orioles this past season, helping to carry the team to a playoff spot (and doing just about everything he could in a Wild Card sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals). He's one of the league's preeminent workhorses — 2024 marked his third straight season of 193 innings or more — and every contender would kill to put someone so reliably excellent at the top of their rotation.

But who will wind up landing him? As the baseball world (and more than a few front offices) waits on Soto, the Burnes sweepstakes have yet to get fully cranked up. But recent reports have given us a preliminary idea of which teams are in on the righty and which should be considered the favorite, so let's break down how things stand.

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6. Corbin Burnes is another free agent for the Blue Jays to miss out on

Both ESPN's Jeff Passan and MLB.com's Mark Feinsand tossed out Toronto's name when listing potential Burnes suitors, and GM Ross Atkins has made clear he's looking for rotation upgrades this winter. And for good reason: The starting pitching situation is thin beyond Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, and both Bassitt (one year remaining until free agency) Gausman (two years) could be out the door fairly soon. The Jays desperately need to make a splash after a last-place finish in 2024, and Burnes would be a big one.

Unfortunately, it's hard to see how the math might work. Toronto is reportedly all-in on chasing Soto, but even if they don't give the outfielder a $700 million contract, there's still an extension for either Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette or both to worry about (plus holes to fill in the infield and outfield). At this point, a more mid-tier option like Yusei Kikuchi or Jack Flaherty would seem to make more sense.

5. Red Sox won't be willing to meet Corbin Burnes' asking price

On paper, this would seem to be an ideal fit. Boston wants to convince everyone that they're finally ready to spend big after years of sliding payrolls, and the rotation would be an ideal place to do so; Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are nice, but would look even nicer behind a true No. 1.

Much as I hate to pour cold water on the Red Sox hype train, I'll believe that John Henry is willing to shell out $200 million+ to a 30-year-old starting pitcher when I see it. It's just too out of character for this ownership group based on how the last few years have gone. There's a reason why Boston has been linked to trade targets like Garrett Crochet; it's far more likely they address pitching by dipping into their stash of top prospects.

4. Why the Giants could be a sneaky Corbin Burnes dark horse

I know, I know, the San Francisco Giants are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football when it comes to landing big-name free agents at this point. But it seems like the team is about to strike out on Juan Soto, meaning there will be money to spend, and Passan went out of his way to name-drop San Francisco in the Burnes sweepstakes.

The Giants have some pitching depth with Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks and Hayden Birdsong back for 2025, but an ace would really tie that group together nicely. A middle-of-the-order bat is the top priority here; if the team can't lure Soto or, say, Willy Adames to the Bay, however, they could pivot to Burnes — and they might be able to lure the Bakersfield native back to California with the right offer. Burnes played his college ball nearby at St. Mary's, and Oracle Park is one heck of a place to pitch.

3. The Orioles face an uphill battle to bring Corbin Burnes back

The good news is that, from all available evidence, GM Mike Elias has made bringing back Burnes a top priority — and new owner David Rubenstein has the financial might to back that up. Baltimore has decent depth options, but they don't have anyone who can reasonably replace their star righty atop the rotation, especially not with Grayson Rodriguez a question mark as he returns from an injury-shortened season. If the O's want to keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox in the rugged AL East, they need impact pitching, and Burnes is their best shot at getting it.

Unfortunately for them, their primary competition might be the two richest teams in all of baseball. Baltimore's newfound payroll aggression is good to see, but there are levels to this, and no matter how much they want Burnes back, it's hard to imagine a world in which they outbid the two teams ahead of them on this list.

2. Mets could target Corbin Burnes if Juan Soto gets away

Most of the Mets offseason so far has revolved around Soto, and whether owner Steve Cohen can lure the outfielder across town with a record-breaking offer.

But let's say that Soto stays with the Yankees, or, even worse, decides to head back to the West Coast to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that case, David Stearns would need to immediately pivot to his rotation, where Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are all free agents. There is no other position player who would merit a deal anywhere near Soto — at this point, New York seems more than willing to let Pete Alonso walk — but there are a few pitchers, headlined by Burnes.

Landing Burnes would be the ideal way to stabilize this pitching staff, and the next-best use of Cohen's money if Soto winds up elsewhere. And New York would have a lot to offer beyond that nine-figure deal, with a team coming off a trip to the NLCS and rabid fan base. But the team that ranks ahead of them here has all of that and then some.

1. The Dodgers are the favorites for Corbin Burnes for a reason

When MLB Network's Jon Morosi handicapped the Burnes sweepstakes earlier this week, he highlighted two teams: the Orioles and the Dodgers. L.A. is sniffing around Soto, but the majority of the team's attention seems to be directed toward the rotation: Flaherty and Walker Buehler are both free agents, while Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May all have serious health concerns, and the team needs to add more behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto ahead of next season.

Of course, being the Dodgers, they're going to look to do it in grand style. Burnes grew up just 110 miles north of Dodger Stadium, and he'd be an ideal stabilizer for this pitching staff in 2025 and beyond. Plus, getting to play for the defending World Series champions is always a compelling sales pitch, especially when it comes with a $200 million+ contract.