Blue Jays' rumored Juan Soto backup plan could seal Ross Atkins' fate

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the thick of the Juan Soto sweepstakes, but we've all seen how this story ends. Last winter, Toronto made a hard push for Shohei Ohtani and almost pulled it off. When Ohtani decided to sign in LA, however, the Blue Jays' offseason plans fell apart.

There is an expectation that Toronto will spend aggressively with or without Soto, but that can be said for every team engaged on the Soto front. Both New York teams, Boston, and Philadelphia are all expected to pursue multiple All-Stars in the weeks ahead. Many of the best non-Soto free agents are pitchers. The Orioles, Braves, and Giants will all hammer the pitching market. Toronto is not alone in its ambition this winter.

So, what happens if (or when) Soto signs somewhere other than Toronto? Ross Atkins will presumably look to get into the mix for Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, and others, but the Blue Jays aren't hailed as favorites for any of these folks. There's a good chance Atkins gets desperate and, rather than underspending like last winter, overspends on the wrong "star."

Jon Heyman of Bleacher Report recently pegged New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso as a potential Blue Jays Plan B. That would mean moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base and installing Alonso at first base for the next five-plus years, which seems like an ill-fated plan.

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Blue Jays' Pete Alonso backup plan could blow up in Ross Atkins' face

There is a tremendous amount of pressure on Atkins and the front office this winter. The Blue Jays have two stars who are ostensibly willing to extend their contracts in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and yet neither has inked a new deal. Both are free agents in a year. Toronto finished last season 14 games below .500, so it's hard to view them as contenders without substantial additions.

Alonso is very good. Let's not undersell his ability to impact winning as arguably the best pure slugger in recent National League history. The 29-year-old finished in 2024 campaign with 2.6 WAR, .240/.329/.459 splits, and 34 home runs. His hot-and-cold tendencies are maddening, but Alonso peaks as high as anybody in the MLB. His postseason heroics for New York are a mark in his favor.

And yet, Alonso's impact pales in comparison to Soto — and other free agents in the second or third-tier after Soto. He's a mediocre defender at first base, and he will only get worse over time. First basemen tend to age in complicated ways, especially without outlier-strong defense or extremely disciplined approaches at the plate. Alonso has raw power for days, but his strikeout numbers aren't great. You just know he's due for a plummet in production sometime in his early to mid-30s.

Guerrero's glove is fine at first base, but a move to third would put an unrealistic volume of defensive responsibilities on his plate. There is tremendous upside with Guerrero and Alonso in the heart of Toronto's lineup, but unless the Blue Jays flesh out the roster with multiple high-level defenders and solid contact bats, the holes will remain prevalent. Alonso is a four-time All-Star — a true impact bat — but the Blue Jays' issues range far beyond what he is capable of fixing.

Atkins needs to put Toronto on the postseason track and convince his current stars to re-sign. If the Blue Jays put all their eggs in the Pete Alonso basket and hit another snag, that franchise could collapse in record time. Alonso is great as a piece of the puzzle. If he ends up as Toronto's main star in a year after Guerrero and Bichette leave, the Blue Jays will be in trouble. And Ross Atkins... well, he probably won't have a job north of the border.