Excuse me? The one move that could finally force Blue Jays to fire Ross Atkins
Offseasons do not get more make-or-break than the one that Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins is staring down right now. As if finishing last in the AL East this season wasn't motivation enough, Toronto also has just a year of team control remaining over its two foundational stars, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette. If the Jays are going to contend with this core, it has to be now; and if it is going to be now, that's going to require plenty of wheeling and dealing from Atkins this winter to plug the many holes on this roster.
The fact that Atkins and the Blue Jays front office seem to be approaching this offseason with the appropriate urgency is undoubtedly a good thing. It's one of the main reasons they landed a meeting with superstar outfielder Juan Soto, for starters, and you'd always rather a team go for it than simply sit on their hands and hope for the best. But if the history of MLB free agency has taught us anything, it's that while aggression is good, desperation is something else entirely. Toronto seems to be flirting with that line right now, and it could set the team back years — while costing Atkins his job.
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Blue Jays seem primed for a panic move this offseason
Ideally, a front office approaches a given offseason with several plans in place — plan A, and then plans B, C, D and E in case something goes awry and plan A falls through. Do your scouting, be confident in your knowledge of your own players and players around the league, and calmly go about addressing your needs in as efficient a manner as possible. The one thing you don't want to be is on tilt; that's how mistakes happen, and how you sign players to deals you'll regret the minute the ink dries.
Unfortunately for Jays fans, it seems like Atkins and Co. might be the latter right now, desperate for some big swing that can turn this franchise's trajectory around. Appearing on Toronto radio's First Up on Wednesday, ESPN insider Buster Olney claimed to speak with executives at last week's GM Meetings who described the Blue Jays as "reeking of desperation.
Again, "big stuff" is just fine. If the Jays manage to land Soto for $700 million, Atkins will never have to buy a meal in Toronto again. But doing big stuff for the sake of doing big stuff, without thinking it through, is something else entirely. Atkins isn't in a spot to execute the team's long-term version; he's playing for his job this season, and that means he doesn't have the luxury of walking away should a free agent's asking price get to high or a team's proposed trade package gets too rich. Coming out of this offseason without several impact additions to his roster isn't an option, and that's a recipe for bad decision-making.
Which brings us to another item in the rumor mill recently, involving a player the Jays reportedly have interest in.
Breaking the bank for Willy Adames would be a big mistake
Toronto needs major help in the infield, even if it manages to come to a long-term agreement with Bichette (or doesn't and just decides to ride out his contract year anyway). The Jays ranked 24th in the Majors in OPS from its second basemen last season, 15th at third base, and is currently slated to start Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement, respectively, at those two spots in 2025. For a team that wants to keep up with the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and suddenly revitalized Boston Red Sox, that's simply not good enough.
The one problem is that there might be a dearth of options for Toronto to choose from. If Alex Bregman does indeed head back to the Houston Astros, things will get awfully desperate for teams looking for help at the hot corner. And the only other impact option is only going to see his price continue to skyrocket:
Former Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has signaled an openness to sliding over to third base, making him a compelling option for teams like Toronto. But he's also the only star shortstop available this winter, and with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves looking for help at the six, his bidding war is set to get outrageous. So outrageous, in fact, that the most recent estimate on his next contract is seven years for $211 million.
Don't get me wrong: Adames is a very good player, one of the better two-way infielders in the sport. But it would be quite simply disastrous for Atkins to panic after swinging and missing on Soto and respond by handing him an absolute monster deal. For starters, it figures to alienate Bichette; even if Adames is ready and willing to be a third baseman moving forward, the calls from the fan base will get awfully loud whenever Bichette struggles or makes an error. And it's simply not a smart use of the team's resources: For as much as Adames would help plug one hole, he'd leave Toronto unable to fill the several others it needs to in order to make a playoff push next season.
Under normal circumstances, it would be easy to convince the Jays to walk away if the bidding gets this high. If Atkins is as desperate as his colleagues seem to think, however, all bets are off.