Nearly three months have passed since Opening Day. To say there have been a lot of moving parts during this span would be a massive understatement. Yet, the crazy part is, we're not even halfway through this MLB campaign; there's so much more in store.
There may not only be plenty of player maneuvering as we approach this year's trade deadline, but also team movement up and down the standings. Some clubs will be jostling for postseason positioning, while others will be selling parts with eyes toward the future. Regardless, the hierarchy we have today might not survive tomorrow.
With that in mind, let's evaluate the state of every divisional race. To do so, we'll use a scale of "sewn up" to Jim Carrey's "so you're telling me there's a chance?" to "wide open."
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Assessing every MLB division standings race on a scale of 'sewn up' to 'wide open'
NL East
Despite the Philadelphia Phillies doing their best to hang around, the New York Mets have a chokehold on the National League East. The Mets have a 5.5-game lead over the second-place Phillies, with at least 14 games separating them from the No. 3 Washington Nationals.
New York boasts baseball's best starting rotation, though losing league ERA leader Kodai Senga to the 15-day IL could complicate matters. But they have the depth to overcome his absence, assuming it's not too lengthy. Not to mention, offseason acquisition Frankie Montas and ace Sean Manaea are inching closer to returning.
The Mets also have the offensive firepower to make up for some pitching regression. While his throwing woes remain a concern, Pete Alonso is hitting like a dark horse MVP candidate. Moreover, superstar outfielder Juan Soto has yet to fully live up to the 15-year, $765 million contract New York signed him to this past winter.
Verdict: Sewn up
NL Central
Considering the Milwaukee Brewers are two-time defending NL Central champions, they deserve the benefit of the doubt to keep pace with the Chicago Cubs. However, the North Siders' high-octane lineup is showing no signs of slowing down, and the team figures to bolster its pitching staff soon.
Chicago's president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has signaled that the Cubs could add multiple arms in the weeks leading up to the deadline. Doing so would fortify an already strong roster that is among the favorites for the NL pennant. Besides, Milwaukee has hovered around .500 with a near-even run differential and doesn't seem to pose a legitimate threat, regardless of their pedigree.
Aside from Milwaukee, the overachieving St. Louis Cardinals are lurking, but they've hit a wall following a strong start to the season. Given the circumstances, the Cubs should comfortably secure their first NL Central crown since 2020.
Verdict: Sewn up
NL West
Who thought the Los Angeles Dodgers would take a step back after adding two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki? The reigning World Series champs surely didn't, but here we are.
The NL West race is shaping up to be the tightest of them all (excluding the historically awful Colorado Rockies, of course). Only one loss differentiates the Dodgers from the third-place San Diego Padres, with the San Francisco Giants sandwiched between them. The surging Arizona Diamondbacks are also entering the mix, even after losing ace Corbin Burnes to season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Injuries, specifically to their pitching staff, have plagued Los Angeles, giving the Padres, Giants and D-Backs a chance. For whatever it's worth, the Dodgers have claimed 12 of the past 13 NL West titles, suggesting they're still in the driver's seat. But this could be the best shot San Diego, San Fran and Arizona will get.
Verdict: Wide open
AL East
New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is not of this Earth and well on his way to a third MVP in four years. Worries about the Bronx Bombers' third-base situation and starting pitching beyond southpaws Max Fried and Carlos Rodón remain. Nonetheless, they counteract these problems with an ability to put up runs in a hurry.
Be that as it may, the AL East is highly competitive, especially with the dead-last Baltimore Orioles finally showing signs of life. The Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays are all top-12 in total Wins Above Average (WAA) by position. The Yankees are second in WAA, leading their divisional counterparts by a good margin, so there's a definitive gap here. Still, New York isn't entirely scot-free at the moment.
Verdict: "So you're telling me there's a chance?"
AL Central
Like the Mets (somewhat), it's the Detroit Tigers and then everyone else in the AL Central. The "Gritty Tigs" were a fun underdog story last year; now they're a juggernaut. Their success has been a collective effort, including unexpectedly spectacular contributions from a few players.
Tigers veteran Javier Báez has not only accepted his newfound utility role this season but also embraced it. The ascension of former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize has been a long time coming. Being without young right-hander Jackson Jobe moving forward stings, but Detroit's equipped for AL supremacy either way.
Verdict: Sewn up
AL West
If last year's AL West race taught us anything, this is far from over. The Houston Astros were 12 games below .500 after May 8 and in last place, while the Texas Rangers were sitting atop the standings. Eventually, the 'Stros dug out of their rut en route to a fourth straight AL West title and their seventh in the past eight years. Conversely, the Lone Stars finished 78-84.
That being said, a four-game gap between the Astros, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels in early June doesn't mean much. Houston has the edge, but they're a below-average scoring unit in runs per game and OPS. The lack of consistent offensive production could come back to haunt them.
Verdict: Wide open
Note: Stats are via Baseball-Reference entering play on June 12.