MLB Trade Grades: Cubs make splash by adding Kyle Tucker, but it comes with massive risk

The biggest trade of last offseason saw the San Diego Padres trade Juan Soto to the New York Yankees in exchange for a slew of pitchers. As much as it hurt to lose a player of Soto's caliber, the deal made sense. The Padres weren't going to pay Soto what he was going to fetch in free agency the following offseason, and sure enough, he signed a ridiculous deal worth $765 million with the New York Mets.

One offseason later, the Houston Astros found themselves in a similar dilemma with Kyle Tucker. Yes, he's a superstar, but he is also set to hit free agency after the 2025 season. Figuring that they weren't going to pay him what he was worth, the Astros placed him on the trade block, giving teams the chance to acquire one of the best players in the game.

The Chicago Cubs leaped at the opportunity and officially sealed the deal on Friday, acquiring Tucker in a deal that sent three players back to Houston according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

MLB Trade Grades: Who won the Cubs-Astros trade for Kyle Tucker?

Declaring an easy winner in a deal like this is easier said than done. The Cubs are obviously acquiring the best player in the deal by landing one of the game's best 10 or 15 players. With that being said, though, Tucker is in the final year of his deal. This might be just a one-year stay for Tucker in the Windy City, and they sent three valuable pieces back to Chicago. There are risks for both sides.

Cubs trade grade: A

It was so apparent that this Chicago Cubs team desperately needed some star power, and Kyle Tucker is a bonafide superstar. He changes everything for the Cubs.

He might not be Juan Soto, but Tucker has been one of the best hitters in the American League in the last four seasons. He led the league with 112 RBI in 2023 and while he only played in 78 regular season games, Tucker did have a .993 OPS. He hit 23 home runs in just 339 plate appearances.

Giving Paredes up just months after acquiring him hurts, but Paredes was never the best fit for Wrigley Field and struggled in his short Cubs stint. Watching Cam Smith - the team's No. 7 prospect according to MLB Pipeline - depart after he played in just 32 games in the organization also hurts. Even Hayden Wesneski has some value as a swingman. The Cubs gave a lot up here for only one guaranteed year of Tucker.

Still, as much as it hurts, Tucker gives them a legitimate shot to win the NL Central. For the Cubs to acquire Tucker just hours after the Milwaukee Brewers traded Devin Williams away, they made a statement. Chances are, since the Cubs were willing to give all of that up for Tucker, they'll be willing to pay up in free agency. That doesn't ensure that they'll end up with the player, as the Yankees learned with Juan Soto, but, it does give Cubs fans hope that the 27-year-old will be with the team long-term. Even if it doesn't end up that way, this is a risk worth taking.

Astros trade grade: B

The Astros had a decision to make. They had to either ride the year out with Tucker and give themselves the best chance to win the World Series before he inevitably walked in free agency, or they had to trade him to ensure that they got more than just a draft pick for when he would leave as a free agent. They chose the latter, and it's hard to blame them too much.

In terms of a return, the Astros did pretty well here. Paredes wasn't a good fit at Wrigley Field, but his swing is tailor-made for Daikin Park. He should dominate playing with the Crawford Boxes 81 (or more) times per year. The 25-year-old is under club control through the 2027 campaign, giving the Astros a corner infielder for the future.

In addition to Paredes, the Astros acquired Cam Smith, Chicago's first-round pick from the 2024 MLB Draft. He only appeared in 32 games after being drafted, but he hit over .300 in those games with seven home runs and a 1.004 OPS. He impressed so much to the point that he ended his season playing five games in Double-A. He might be the No. 7 prospect in the Cubs system, but he's the No. 73 prospect overall, according to MLB Pipeline. He's going to be the new No. 1 prospect in this Astros farm system.

Hayden Wesneski might appear to be more of a throw-in, but he's coming off a season that saw him post a 3.86 ERA in 28 appearances (seven starts) and 67.2 innings of work. He can start and work out of the bullpen, and doesn't even hit arbitration until 2026. Getting four years or a capable swingman is valuable with how expensive starting pitching is nowadays, even if Wesneski doesn't have an ace ceiling.

The Cubs getting as good of a player as Tucker makes them the winner, even with the obvious risk. If the Astros had to lose him, getting multiple years of an All-Star-caliber player in Paredes is an awesome start, and adding on a top prospect and a capable swingman makes it a very nice return. They take a hit in 2025, but are better set up to compete in the future. Perhaps knowing that Tucker won't be part of the equation, the Astros will be able to consider bringing Alex Bregman back to Houston.