Alex Bregman rumors: Cubs trade potential, rejected Red Sox offer and more

In a shocking twist, free agent third baseman Alex Bregman inked a five-year, $175 million contract with the Chicago Cubs late Saturday evening. About an hour later, the Chicago Bears completed their historic comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers in the NFL Playoffs. Have a night, Chicago.

This move came not entirely out of left field — the Cubs were definitely linked to Bregman along the way — but certainly as a surprise. Boston was the incumbent and the heavy favorite, while Toronto and Arizona were also frequently mentioned as potential destinations. As the dust settles on this transformative decision, here’s everything we know about the lead-up and the aftermath of Bregman signing on the North Side.

Cubs are now positioned to potentially trade Nico Hoerner

This signing does two things for Chicago. It provides the Cubs with a strong bat in the middle of the lineup to “replace,” on some level, the outgoing Kyle Tucker. It also increases their flexibility as it pertains to future maneuvering. Nico Hoerner, their All-Star second baseman, is on an expiring contract and has become a frequenter of trade rumors. Now, Chicago has the depth to adequately fill that void if — or when — Hoerner gets traded.

As MLB insider Bob Nightengale points out, the Cubs can now easily move Matt Shaw to second base. Part of the concern with Bregman as a Chicago target was that he’d block Shaw’s path to regular ABs. Shaw didn’t exactly light the world on fire as a rookie — .690 OPS and 98 OPS+ — but his numbers improved greatly as the season progressed. He also only recently turned 24, so a learning curve was always baked into the equation.

Shaw hit .231 with a .766 OPS over the final two months of the season. He’s quick on the bases, a promising defender, and very much on a rapid ascent offensively. If the Cubs see a breakout coming, it becomes far more palatable to trade Hoerner, recoup assets, and move on with Bregman, Swanson, Shaw, and Busch — the entire infield, essentially — locked up for multiple years.

Now, Hoerner is a great player. He finished last season hitting .297 with a .739 OPS and a career-high 114 OPS+. He’s a perennial Gold Glove candidate at second base, a 30-plus stolen base threat, and generally one of the most fundamentally sound baseball players in the world. Can he hit for power? Not really, but Hoerner does all the small things to help a team win. His 4.8 fWAR last season was second to only Pete Crow-Armstrong on the current Cubs roster.

Chicago might not get a return on par with Hoerner’s abilities, just because his archetype is less valued around the league. It’s also worth wondering if Chicago should try its hand at extending Hoerner, who’s just as valuable as Bregman in a certain light. Regardless of what the Cubs should do, however, it’s clear that Hoerner is on the trade block more prominently than before.

Red Sox were straight up outbid in Bregman sweepstakes

The goal for Bregman was always to play well, opt out, and sign a more secure long-term contract this offseason. The Red Sox made tremendous sacrifices to maximize Bregman’s year in Beantown, moving Rafael Devers off of his preferred position of third base and ultimately trading their young cornerstone due to the resulting internal strife. And now, after a single season that resulted in a first-round postseason exit, the Red Sox just couldn’t stomach matching an offer from the Cubs.

Boston was willing to stretch out to five years, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, but the Cubs’ $35 million annual value — which is actually less than $35 million, as $70 million of the total $175 million contract is deferred — was too rich for the Red Sox front office. Currently sitting on the fringe of the first Competitve Balance Tax line, it seems like Boston is being a bit stingy with its finances. Not ideal.

Now, look. Bregman is 31. He was hurt for a good chunk of last season and there is an imminent decline on the horizon. If the Red Sox just prefer to allocate those funds elsewhere — Kyle Tucker (the pipe dream), Bo Bichette (the most logical alternative), Nico Hoerner (the ironic alternative) — that’s all good and well. Bregman’s leadership will be missed, and there are a lot of intangible qualities that Boston is sacrificing here. But Bregman, on paper, is not irreplaceable. Especially with Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Franklin Arias all coming up through the Red Sox pipeline.

This is, however, a major credit to the Cubs, owner Tom Ricketts, and president Jed Hoyer. For so long, the narrative around Chicago has been risk aversion to a fault — cheapness in one of baseball’s most profitable markets. This was a gutsy swing and an impressive response to Kyle Tucker’s imminent departure. Good on them.

Red Sox expected to set their sights on Bo Bichette

With Bregman unavailable, the Red Sox “will now set their sights” on Bo Bichette, per Nightengale. This feels like the best possible outcome involving a straight swapping out of infielders. Bichette would presumably move to second base, with Marcelo Mayer relocating to the hot corner full-time.

That said, Bichette has other suitors, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays particularly strong and smoky in the rumor mill. He also has a reported asking price of $300 million. Whether he gets $300 million is another matter entirely, but Bichette is four years younger than Bregman and a far more impenetrable offensive talent, even if his defensive issues hold him back from true superstardom.

I’d bet that Bichette does not get $300 million in the end, but can Craig Breslow really outbid his predecessor Dave Dombrowski? Or the money printers in Toronto right now? I’m not so sure. The Red Sox may be more comfortable spending on Bichette given his more favorable age and timeline, but Boston has already taken on significant money between the Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras trades. This will be a real test of how far Breslow and ownership are willing to go.

If the Red Sox whiff on Bichette (and don’t splurge on Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger in an unexpected pivot), their next-best options are Eugenio Suárez on a more affordable short-term deal, or a trade for Nico Hoerner. Ketel Marte is off the table, per Chris Cotillo, and the odds of the Yankees trading Jazz Chisholm to Boston are next to zero. Brendan Donovan is another trade option — and Cardinals president Chaim Bloom is clearly willing to converse with Boston’s front office — but the Red Sox are quickly running out of ideal replacements.