The Chicago Cubs made a big swing on Wednesday, sending top prospect Owen Caissie and two other pieces to the Miami Marlins in exchange for righty Edward Cabrera. There's risk involved, no doubt, but Cabrera is one of the highest upside arms around, and if he clicks, he'd give Chicago's rotation exactly the sort of shot in the arm it desperately needs. Jed Hoyer has addressed his team's biggest need, and did it without touching his Major League roster or hamstringing his team's finances.
Given all of that, you'd think that this would be a real blow to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Crew have won the NL Central three years running, and dispatched of Chicago in the NLDS last year, but they've also had an awfully quiet offseason while their foremost rival adds a big piece. And yet, if anything, the Brewers might be in a better position on Wednesday than they were yesterday, as their biggest trade asset just keeps appreciating in value.
Cubs' Edward Cabrera trade is more evidence of a red-hot starting pitcher market
So far this offseason, would-be contenders seem far more motivated to spend prospect capital than money on starting pitching. Dylan Cease's massive seven-year, $210 million contract notwithstanding, the free agent market has been relatively muted, with Michael King taking a short-term deal and the other big names (Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen) still unsigned with little movement in sight. The trade market, though, has been bananas.
First came the Shane Baz deal, in which the Baltimore Orioles sent an absolute haul (four top-20 prospect plus a draft pick) for a pitcher who, while certainly tantalizing, put up a 4.87 ERA in 2025 and comes with injury concerns. And the Marlins have flipped Cabrera for Chicago's No. 1 prospect, a potential 30-homer bat in Caissie (albeit with real swing-and-miss risk).
Cabrera is a good pitcher, and you can absolutely see why the Cubs were enamored with his potential. But that potential hasn't matched up with his production very often in his MLB career, and there are shoulder and elbow issues in his recent past. Yes, three years of arbitration are valuable, but there's still not a ton of evidence that Cabrera can actually be a frontline guy.
What should the Brewers expect in a Freddy Peralta trade?
Which brings us to Milwaukee's frontline guy: Freddy Peralta, a two-time All-Star who's been caught up in the rumor mill recently as he enters his final year before free agency. That lack of team control no doubt hurts his market; no team wants to pay full freight for a rental. But if you're just looking for the best bet to be a No. 2 starter in 2026, there's no question that Peralta stands out far more than either Cabrera or Baz.
Which puts Milwaukee is excellent position. The Brewers don't have to pull the trigger on a Peralta trade; this team is loaded for bear, and they can contend this season while letting him walk for a compensatory draft pick next winter. But they also have pitching depth behind him, and the Baz and Cabrera deals have set such a lofty bar that you have to wonder whether Milwaukee could ship out its best arm while getting pieces that can help both in the short and long term.
If a team is willing to offer, say, an MLB-ready arm like the Mets' Jonah Tong along with other prospects who could play roles in the bullpen and infield in years to come, why wouldn't Milwaukee seriously consider it? Again, Cabrera came with two more years of control, but his track record isn't anywhere near what Peralta's is, and big-market suitors like the New York teams, the Red Sox and the Dodgers should have no problem acquiring a pending free agent.
For now, the Cubs have taken a big step forward in their hopes of catching Milwaukee this season. But while they won the battle, the Brewers still may win the war.