Cubs' surprise trade deadline fit could wind up deciding the NL Central

Chicago has checked in with the Royals ahead of the trade deadline, and it could be a match made in heaven.
Kansas City Royals v Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals v Texas Rangers | Richard Rodriguez/GettyImages

Although the Kansas City Royals have disappointed this year, it doesn't mean they can't contribute to a division title in 2025 — it just won't be their own. At 49-52 entering Tuesday night's action, the Royals are 11 games back in the AL Central; and while they're only 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, they'd also need to leapfrog five different teams in the standings to reach the postseason.

Given all that, it's probably time for Kansas City to face the reality of their season and sell at the trade deadline. And if the Chicago Cubs play their cards right, that choice could wind up deciding the NL Central.

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Hot Brewers have passed the Cubs

The Cubs are looking for reinforcements at the trade deadline to get back into first place ahead of the surging Milwaukee Brewers. Since May 25, Chicago has gone from holding a 6.5-game lead in the NL Central to trailing the Brewers by one game. It's not like the Cubs have been bad either, going 27-20 during the past two months. But Milwaukee has been on an insane 34-12 run to jump their rivals in the standings.

At this point of the season the Cubs may not have to worry about missing the playoffs — they have the second-best record in the National League, after all — but if they want to better position themselves for a deep postseason run then they have to upgrade via trade. And the Royals have several players that could improve Chicago's chances at returning to and remaining atop the NL Central.

Cubs desperate for rotation help

No. 1 on the Cubs' wishlist is starting pitching. The need to boost the rotation was on full display Monday night, when Ben Brown and Chris Flexen each struggled against the light-hitting Royals, who scored a season-high 12 runs.

The Cubs have been hesitant to use any of their young pitchers as a permanent solution at the end of their starting rotation after Jameson Taillon landed on the IL prior to the All-Star break. Jordan Wicks, who made seven starts down the stretch in 2023 and began the 2024 season in the starting rotation, has only been used in three-inning stints this month, while Brown is most likely not going to start moving forward after being relegated to a bulk role.

Flexen is showing signs of regression after his phenomenal start to the season and we haven't even gotten to Colin Rea pitching out of his mind for the past month, which surely won't continue. Taillon could be back in August, but there's no official timetable for his recovery after going down with a calf strain. The Cubs are hoping Javier Assad will be back next month, but there's no guarantee he'll be able to produce positive results after being out most of the year.

Cubs fans have been frustrated seeing the Brewers climb up the standings, but sometimes you have to give credit where it's due. Milwaukee continues to churn out quality pitching, and through 100 games the Brewers rank No. 2 in the Majors with a 3.38 starter ERA. Chicago has to close the gap (No. 12, 3.94 ERA) if they want to win the division in 2025.

Now, as we approach the MLB trade deadline, the Cubs may find a remedy for their starter troubles with help from the Royals.

Cubs have checked in with Royals ahead of trade deadline

Who knows, maybe Jed Hoyer walked directly to the visitor's clubhouse at Wrigley Field sometime in the past 24 hours. MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported on Tuesday that the Cubs have checked in with the Royals ahead of the trade deadline.

Veteran starter Seth Lugo has a $15 million player option for the 2026 season, so the Cubs will likely talk down his price despite the right-hander's impressive numbers.

Lugo, 35, has a 2.94 ERA through 18 starts with the Royals this season and has been one of the more effective starting pitchers in baseball since the beginning of 2023. During the past two and a half years Lugo has recorded a 3.17 ERA in 77 starts.

While Lugo presents the Cubs with a solid option to plug into the rotation down the stretch, left-hander Kris Bubic may ultimately be the better choice at this year's trade deadline. Bubic is younger at just 27, guaranteed to be under team control via arbitration in 2026 and has better overall stuff, leading to more certainty that he can continue to put up good results.

Bubic was named to his first All-Star team this year and currently has a 2.38 ERA with a 24.9 K% in 113.2 innings with the Royals. If you're the Cubs, you'd also love to have Bubic's 47.4% ground ball rate behind Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner in the middle of the infield.

Of course, a deal between the Cubs and Royals only works if the price makes sense. But Hoyer may feel more pressure beyond his own fan base to respond with a big move at the trade deadline as the Brewers show no signs of slowing down.