The dead sprint to the trade deadline is here, and for the Chicago Cubs, it's no secret what the priority is before July 31 arrives. Heck, president Jed Hoyer has said as much for weeks: This team needs pitching help, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
And the former in particular has to be a priority: Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd have been stalwarts in Justin Steele's absence, but with Jameson Taillon currently on the IL and not a ton of proven depth behind them, the Cubs need to come away from this deadline with a starter they'd feel comfortable starting in a postseason series.
The market right now doesn't figure to have a ton of those available, but Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller might fit the bill. He's not the flashiest or the most overwhelming arm, but he eats innings as well as anyone, using his kitchen-sink mix (he throws six different pitches) to surpress hard contact and work deep into games. He posted a 3.48 ERA and a 3.33 FIP in the first half over an MLB-leading 20 starts, and he'd slot in nicely as a No. 3 behind Imanaga and Boyd. Plus, with Pittsburgh buried in the NL Central cellar and looking to get out from the four years remaining on the five-year, $77 million deal Keller signed before last season, he's very much available.
There's just one problem: There are far more teams looking for starting pitchers than offering them right now. Very few teams are both 1) clearly selling with two weeks remaining until the deadline and 2) willing and able to give up arms that contending teams would view as a legitimate upgrade. Add in down years from trade bait like Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Sandy Alcantara, and you've got yourself a seller's market.
The good news is that the Cubs are as well-positioned to navigate that market as anyone, in large part thanks to the work Hoyer and Co. have done stocking this farm system. And one prospect in particualr is having a midseason breakout at exactly the right time to get a deal done.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Jefferson Rojas is peaking at the perfect time for the Cubs
The jewel of Chicago's farm is outfielder Owen Caissie, who might be the hottest prospect in the Minors right now. But the Cubs will likely balk at including him in a Keller deal, given the money left on the latter's contract and the uncertainty surrounding the team's outfield moving forward. Luckily, they can leave Caissie off the table and still have enough to entice Pittsburgh (and beat out the competition).
With Paul Skenes and Jared Jones already in the Majors and prospects like Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco and newly drafted Seth Hernandez waiting in the wings, the Pirates need bats at the deadline, not arms. And young Cubs infielder Jefferson Rojas can help with that: The 20-year-old, currently ranked as the No. 62 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, has been scorching at High-A of late, slashing .300/.340/.660 so far in July. The power isn't huge, but he makes a ton of contact and could develop into a .275 hitter with 15-20 bombs in the Majors. Combined with solid defense at short or second base, that's a very valuable player, one that Pittsburgh could really use.
Chicago will likely wince a little at giving up Rojas, given Nico Hoerner's looming free agency next winter and Dansby Swanson's decline as he gets into his 30s. But it takes value to get value, and the Cubs can't afford to let this Kyle Tucker window close without doing whatever they can to make a run at a title. Rojas is the sweet spot between a stud like Caissie and a player Pittsburgh would have no interest in, and besides, Chicago has young middle infielders like James Triantos and Fernando Cruz behind him to take his place.