Tarik Skubal trade chatter dominated much of the MLB offseason, but after signing Framber Valdez to a massive three-year deal, it's abundantly clear that the Detroit Tigers will not be trading the back-to-back Cy Young winner before Opening Day. Pablo Lopez's injury should change their mind, though.
Lopez ended his live batting practice session with elbow soreness on Monday, raising the question of what's next for the Minnesota Twins right-hander. Sure, Lopez could be fine, and the Twins certainly hope he is by saying Lopez getting imaging on the elbow is precautionary, but time will tell. What this injury proves, though, is just how fragile pitchers are. The Tigers need to keep this in mind in what could be Skubal's last season in Detroit.
Pablo López cut short his live batting practice session with elbow soreness.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) February 16, 2026
Twins say it was precautionary, especially this early in camp, but López will go for imaging on his elbow.
Why Pablo Lopez's injury should convince the Tigers to trade Tarik Skubal
It's never fun to expect an injury to happen, but an injury can happen to anyone at anytime. Lopez, by all indications, was completely fine until he wasn't. A Skubal injury would be a nightmarish scenario on multiple fronts.
Not only would the Tigers have a whole lot of trouble winning enough games without him if he were to miss substantial time, but what if he were to suffer an injury around the trade deadline? If the Tigers have a down year, trading Skubal, as they might've otherwise hoped, wouldn't be possible. That'd be heartbreaking.
The worst-case scenario in the next year is the Tigers hold onto Skubal, fail to get to the World Series, and then lose Skubal for nothing more than a draft pick as a free agent. Keeping him past Opening Day increases the odds of that happening, thanks in part to the possibility of a major injury making him untradable. It's not as if Skubal hasn't been hurt before, either.
Tarik Skubal has an injury history worth keeping in mind
A pitching injury could happen at any moment, even for a mostly durable pitcher like Lopez, who was limited to just 14 starts in 2025, but had made 32 starts in each of the previous three seasons. Skubal has been healthy the last couple of years, making 31 starts in 2024 and 2025, but he hadn't made 30 starts in a single season prior to 2024 and has dealt with his share of arm injuries.
It's one thing to assume a starting pitcher who has been fully durable throughout his career will stay healthy, but how can you assume the same for Skubal, who has also cleared the 200-inning mark when combining regular season and postseason in each of the last two seasons?
It's far from a sure thing Skubal will be healthy. Are the Tigers sure they want to risk an injury when this is their last chance to get a haul for him?
Twins injury shows how worst-case Skubal scenario is most likely outcome for Tigers
As mentioned above, the worst-case scenario for the Tigers in their last year of Skubal is keeping him around all year, failing to do damage in October, and losing him for nothing more than a draft pick in free agency.
It's pretty clear that the Tigers intend to keep him for the year, barring a truly awful first half. Are we sure that even with Framber Valdez, this Tigers team is capable of going on a deep postseason run? I mean, Valdez helps, but their issue last October was their lack of offense, and they're running back the exact same lineup. The Lopez injury just shows how fragile pitchers are, and a Skubal injury would make a trade less likely.
As much as it hurts to trade a player of Skubal's caliber, Lopez's injury should steer them further in that direction. The risk/reward just isn't worth it. The Tigers aren't good enough to win on paper, they've shown they're extremely unlikely to pay Skubal what he's worth in free agency by refusing to do so in arbitration, and there's a real chance Skubal will suffer an injury, preventing the Tigers from competing or trading him.
There's a good chance the Twins will have missed their best chance to trade Lopez if his injury is serious. The Tigers risk that same outcome with Skubal. Trading him now ensures they'll receive a worthwhile haul, allowing them to be competitive in 2027 and beyond. Risking that, when he's unlikely to deliver them a World Series in 2026 and is unlikely to re-sign, feels foolish.
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