How the Pirates are grooming Paul Skenes replacement well ahead of time

The Pittsburgh Pirates are finally on a contending path, with a compelling mix of proven veterans and highly talented up-and-coming prospects, led by 20-year-old Konnor Griffin. The face of the franchise, of course, is 23-year-old Paul Skenes. He won Cy Young in his second MLB season and has a career ERA of 2.06 through 65 starts.

Folks show up to PNC Park just to watch Skenes pitch. But in this league, the future comes at you fast, and even winning won't help Pittsburgh escape questions about Skenes' long-term outlook. He's a free agent in 2030, with the potential to receive a historic contract when the time comes.

Thankfully for Pirates fans, their next homegrown ace is already on a meteoric rise.

Seth Hernandez is the most electric pitching prospect in MLB

Seth Hernandez was Pittsburgh's first-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, at No. 6 overall. Fresh out of high school, the hard-throwing righty has made seven appearances this season between Low-A and High-A, with a 0.82 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, recording 57 strikeouts in 33.0 innings pitched.

Hernandez has allowed zero hits in three of his seven professional starts as a 19-year-old. He has already earned one promotion, with a another jump up to Double-A not out of the question at this point.

His 52 percent whiff rate in the second-highest in all of the majors and minors. He trails only Padres closer Mason Miller (56.1 percent), who is arguably the most unhittable force in baseball right now.

Hernandez came into the season ranked 18th on FanSided's Top 100 prospects. At MLB Pipeline, which recently updated their rankings to account for the graduations of Konnor Griffin, JJ Wetherholt and other top prospects, Hernandez already sits at No. 3, behind five-tool teenaged shortstops Jesús Made and Leo De Vries.

How soon can we expect Seth Hernandez in the majors?

MLB Pipeline currently estimates a 2028 big-league debut for Hernandez, in his age-21 season. That would put him on an accelerated timeline compared to even Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, who both debuted for Pittsburgh as 22-year-olds. Skenes, of course, played college baseball at LSU, but Jones was another power righty drafted straight out of high school. He was a second-round pick in 2020 who debuted in 2024. Hernandez could, in theory, debut just three years after Pittsburgh selected him.

And hey, who's to say it won't happen even sooner? Nothing can be ruled out with how dominant Hernandez has been so far. The Pirates have the luxury of elite pitching depth, which should allow them to put Hernandez through his paces and not rush anything. The last thing Pittsburgh wants to do is shortchange his development and put Hernandez in a position to fail.

Given his production so far, however, Hernandez might just be too damn good to keep stuffed in the minors for much longer. He won't debut in 2026, to be clear, as Hernandez still has durability and command questions to work through, as most young pitchers do. But, if injuries force the Pirates into a tough decision late in 2027, or if Hernandez shoves above and beyond expectations in 2028 spring training, Pittsburgh will need to make a move.

What does Hernandez's rise mean for Paul Skenes?

This means nothing for Skenes in the immediate future. He has proven himself as one of the very best arms in baseball and he will continue to start on Opening Day and carry this Pittsburgh staff until he's no longer on the team.

What it could mean a few years down the road, however, is that Pittsburgh has a ready-made replacement on the payroll. Skenes will be a free agent at the end of the 2029 campaign, which means Skenes trade rumors will start to heat up as soon as next season, depending on where Pittsburgh finds itself in the competitive hierarchy.

Pittsburgh's offseason spending and subsequent early success in 2026 has put the Skenes trade speculation on hold. But if the Pirates fall short in the Wild Card race, or if Pittsburgh looks hapless in a first round series, those conversations will begin anew, perhaps with even more intensity.

For all the success Skenes has enjoyed in Pittsburgh so far — for all the revenue he has single-handedly funneled into the organization — we know, based on history, that the Pirates probably won't spend $400 or $500 million on a pitcher. That will be Skenes' price tag in free agency if he can stay healthy and maintain his current level of impact.

Let's say Hernandez fulfills his current projection and starts 2028 on the Opening Day roster. That gives the Pirates a full season of both Hernandez and Skenes in the rotation before the latter becomes an expiring contract, and thus the center of MLB trade rumors for the next calendar year.

If Pittsburgh still believes in Hernandez as their next Cy Young-level prodigy after year one, it becomes a lot easier to stomach a Skenes trade before 2029. Such a trade would almost certainly bring a massive influx of talent into Pittsburgh's farm system. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has far better odds of extending Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and other young fixtures of its rotation, which should allow the Buccos to maintain quality depth around Hernandez, even if Skenes is no longer anchoring the rotation.

Pirates fans are understandably excited about what a four-man gauntlet of Skenes, Hernandez, Jones and Chandler will look like in a couple years. That might be the best rotation in recent MLB history if Pittsburgh can avoid catastrophic injuries. But, realistically, the Pirates won't be able to keep (and pay) all their star pitchers long term.

Hernandez's rise may ultimately coincide with Skenes' departure, even if Pirates fans don't want to think about it in that light.

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