Just when baseball fans were about ready to go out of their minds with boredom this offseason, the Hot Stove gods delivered: In the middle of NFL madness on Saturday night, ESPN's Jeff Passan broke the news that third baseman Alex Bregman was spurning the Boston Red Sox in order to sign a five-year, $175 million deal with the Chicago Cubs.
To say that this came as a shock would be an understatement. Bregman back to Boston had been more or less assumed since the start of the offseason, and every subsequent piece of news seemed to reinforce that further. Now, though, the free agent market has been turned on its head: With Bregman off the board, where will the Red Sox turn to find another bat? What are the Cubs cooking right now as they hoard infielders? And what will such a massive contract do to Bo Bichette's market?
You've got questions, we'll do our best to provide answers as to how the rest of the winter plays out from here.
OF Kyle Tucker
Post-Bregman prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
With Bregman jilting Boston, there's been some speculation that the Red Sox could now pivot to Tucker. But there are a couple of problems there. The first is a practical one: There are simply too many outfielders on this roster already. Even if you want to slide Ceddanne Rafaela to second base — a questionable decision on its face, considering how valuable his glove is in center — you've still got three in-house starters in Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. Where exactly is Tucker going to play?
The second is more philosophical, and probably more important: What about the recent history of this franchise would lead you to believe that they're going to pay the money necessary to win a bidding war for Tucker? They traded Mookie Betts rather than keep him around, and they were so desperate to get off of Devers' megadeal that they twisted themselves in knots to get rid of it. The only chance Boston would seem to have is if Tucker's market craters to the point that he decides to settle for a short-term deal with a sky-high AAV, similar to Bregman last offseason.
I'm skeptical, though, in large part thanks to a division rival in Toronto. Their pitching upgrades secure, the Blue Jays appear to be orienting the rest of their winter around signing Tucker by any means necessary. He's a clean fit (cleaner than Bichette at this point, certainly), and if it comes down to money, who are you going to trust more: John Henry, or the team owned by a media giant that's already handed $500 million to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Tucker is the Blue Jays' man, and nothing about how this offseason has played out leads me to believe they won't get him in the end.
INF Bo Bichette
Post-Bregman prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Is it just me, or have the Dodgers been ... a little too quiet so far this offseason? Sure, they pounced on a three-year deal for Edwin Diaz to fortify the bullpen, but I find it hard to believe that Andrew Friedman and Co. are content to simply sit on their hands from here on out.
And the more you think about it, the more signing Bichette makes a certain sense (especially if the Blue Jays prioritize Tucker instead). Los Angeles has a need to fill at second base, and they'll have one at third soon enough, with Max Muncy set to hit free agency next winter. This lineup, and this infield in particular, is getting a little long in the tooth, and it's also a little heavy on lefties — two problems that Bichette could solve with one fell swoop.
So let's play this out. The Yankees don't appear to have the stomach for the sort of long-term contract Bichette will demand in a post-Bregman market, and they have second and third base spoken for. The Phillies face payroll questions of their own, and good luck finding a trade market for Alec Bohm or Bryston Stott to free up a spot in the infield. Beyond that, who else is there, really? The Tigers are out. The D-backs are keeping Ketel Marte. The Giants could put him at second base, but do you really want him sharing one half of the infield with Rafael Devers?
Unless the Red Sox really, really experience a financial change of heart, it's not hard to see Bichette not finding the sort of deal he (understandably) thinks he deserves. And in that case, why not take an opt out-laden deal with the Dodgers, rake in 2026 and hit the market again ahead of your age-29 season next winter? Someone please prevent this reality from coming to pass, I'm getting sick already.
OF Cody Bellinger
Post-Bregman prediction: New York Yankees
Yes, I know the Yankees just publicly washed their hands of Bellinger (and by extension his agent, Scott Boras), frustrated by their unwillingness to come off of a truly astronomical asking price. But if Bellinger isn't getting $30 million a year over seven years from New York, he's certainly not getting it anywhere else; he's too perfect a fit for Yankee Stadium, too valuable to this roster specifically.
If we learned anything from Saturday's developments, it's that you should never bet against Boras. But Bellinger simply isn't a $200 million player, no matter how many MVP Awards he has in his past, and the bet here is that Brian Cashman is just posturing in order to speed things along so he can get to the rest of his offseason. Bellinger and the Yankees still need each other more than anyone else does, and something more like 5/$150 million feels right — at which point New York will likely focus full-time on trading for another starting pitcher.
LHP Framber Valdez
Post-Bregman prediction: New York Mets
Frustration is high in Queens right now, but I can't help but feel like the Mets still have at least one big swing up their sleeves. That swing really should be Tucker, if he does in fact go to Toronto, the most obvious pivot for David Stearns is to add a known quantity to the top of a rotation that's high on potential but low on proven production right now.
And Valdez is nothing if not proven. He's not going to miss a ton of bats, and he's already 32 years old, but all he does is force a trillion ground balls and eat up innings with an ERA of 3.50 or lower. That's awfully valuable for this Mets team in particular, given how few internal options feel like a safe bet for at least 150 frames in 2026. Plus, Valdez's age means that New York might be able to find common ground on a shorter-term deal with a higher AAV, taking the lefty through the rest of his prime without bogging down Stearns' payroll.
LHP Ranger Suarez
Post-Bregman prediction: San Francisco Giants
We mentioned the Giants earlier, and while it's been a pretty quiet offseason in San Francisco so far, it does feel like Buster Posey is itching to do something desperate sooner rather than later.
Tucker would be the dream given how badly this team could use another outfielder (and another bat in the middle of the order), but for seemingly the 75th year in a row, San Francisco remains on the outskirts of negotiations for a star player. So where could Posey pivot? The Giants need one more arm at least behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, and Suarez is the next best choice if Valdez is no longer an option.
The declining velocity is a concern, as is the fact that Suarez has a relatively short track record as a starter and comes with some durability questions. But the production over the last few years, particularly in big games, is hard to argue with, and at this point San Francisco needs to take what it can get.