MLB Rookie of the Year odds: Dark horses who can challenge NL favorite Konnor Griffin

The Pittsburgh Pirates have officially called up MLB's No. 1 prospect, 19-year-old shortstop Konnor Griffin, ahead of Friday's home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. He also inked a record nine-year, $140 million contract.

Griffin now becomes the first teenager to debut in the Majors since Juan Soto in 2018. Griffin was already the projected frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, but now he gets a chance to prove it on the field. Let's dive into the odds (h/t ESPN's odds tracker) and spotlight which rookies can actually give Griffin a run for his money.

NL Rookie of the Year odds

Griffin's biggest challenger: Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart has been unconscious to start the season for Pittsburgh's division rivals in Cincinnati. He's 9-for-19 (.474) with an NL-leading seven walks and only three strikeouts. He has two home runs and three doubles. His 1.563 OPS won't hold for an entire season — that'd be the new MLB record — but there's no reason to fade him in your Rookie of the Year predictions. Stewart is clearly an awards contender, and all the underlying data supports it.

Strikeouts were more of a problem for Stewart last season, so it will be interesting to see if this sudden improvement in plate discipline can hold. If it does, he generates such easy power, currently in MLB's 95th percentile with a 62.5 percent hard-hit rate. Combine that slug with a patient approach and smart swings through the zone, and Stewart could be bopping 30-plus homers and representing Cincy in the All-Star Game.

He's far less valuable than Griffin as a base-runner and defender, which is where the Pirates rookie probably holds an edge this early in their respective careers. If Stewart is just more seasoned and productive at the plate, however, it might not matter. Don't get it in your head that Griffin is a runaway favorite here, because he's not.

True dark horse threat: Andrew Painter

Andrew Painter's odds do not — pardon the pun — paint him as a legitimate threat to win Rookie of the Year. And maybe that's just the truth of the matter. After an impressive spring, however, Painter breezed through the Nationals lineup in his first MLB start, allowing just four hits, one walk and one earned run across 5.1 innings, with eight strikeouts. The only run scored after Painter left the game.

The fastball is not what it was pre-Tommy John, but it worked fine enough to set up his secondary pitches, with his slider operating at particularly explosive levels right now.

Painter was considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball not too long ago. The elbow surgery and lost years understandably dampened expectations, but he's a full year removed from rehab now. If he can get his fastball up to speed, literally and figuratively, Painter's 6-foot-7 frame and impeccable off-speed mix should carry him to excellent (and consistent) results.

The Phillies develop pitchers as well as any organization in baseball. It's too early to fully jump on the Painter bandwagon — we need a larger sample size with his fastball, in particular — but there's a nonzero chance he factors very prominently into this conversation, especially if the Phillies are winning games behind his starts.

No way ... but maybe: RHP Bubba Chandler

Why not shout out Griffin's own teammate? The odds of Bubba Chandler emerging out the shadow of Paul Skenes (and Griffin) to win this award are next to zero, but there's a reason he is the top-ranked pitching prospect in MLB. Chandler's stuff is electric. He rides his fastball hard; the 23-year-old threw it 60 times in his first start of the campaign. His changeup, though lightly used, played beautifully through 4.1 scoreless innings, with six strikeouts.

Chandler is going to need to improve his command and work deeper into games as the season progresses, but in terms of pure talent, he's right up there with Nolan McLean and Andrew Painter — if not ahead of them. He's probably the least polished of that group, and McLean is the frontrunning pitcher for a reason. But, if Chandler can start locating that fireball of a fastball with intent, the ceiling is the sky. Or outer space.

AL Rookie of the Year odds

This has zero impact on Konnor Griffin's legancy, except for determing whose name will sit beside his under "MLB Rookie of the Year 2026" on Wikipedia for eternity. Assuming Griffin can actually pull it out on the National League side, of course.

It feels somewhat fitting that Kevin McGonigle, MLB's consensus No. 2 prospect behind only Griffin, is the favorite on the AL side. He cracked Detroit's Opening Day lineup at 21 years old and is off to a blazing start, hitting .364 with a .985 OPS and five RBI. He's also a Gold Glove candidate in the making at shortstop or third base.

The AL rookie pool certainly feels deeper at the moment. Chase DeLauter has four home runs in six games for the Guardians. Munetaka Murakami has three home runs. Both Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are older rookies, coming over from Japan after considerable professional success overseas. Both are far more advanced than the other hitters in this race, with the possible exception of McGonigle and maybe DeLauter. So, discount them at your own risk.

Connelly Early has a career 2.19 ERA through five starts in Boston. Trey Yesavage just gave the Blue Jays a ton of critical outs during a World Series bid. Tatsuya Imai is another accomplished Japanese star who probably shouldn't be scratched off the list just because of one bad start, in his MLB debut no less.

So... the AL is loaded. Griffin and McGonigle are the favorites, a nice snapshot of the future of the league. It looks bright.

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