Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Houston Astros face a tough decision with a slim postseason chance and a weak farm system, pushing them toward a potential fire sale.
- The San Francisco Giants have maneuvered for extra draft pool money, positioning themselves for a high-stakes play in the upcoming MLB Draft.
- MLB teams are discussing rule changes to address roster imbalances, particularly around pitcher limits, that have become contentious this season.
The season is hardly over for any would-be contender, but for teams like the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants, it's tough to blame them for positioning themselves for the MLB trade deadline in early August. Yes, that's nearly three months from now and a lot could change. Perhaps Houston will tap into their championship metal and make a run in a wide-open AL West. And heck, maybe Rafael Devers can find the Boston form he left behind and give San Francisco a fighting chance in the NL Wild Card.
That's a lot of 'ifs' and 'maybes' though, and it's also why Buster Posey made a trade on Saturday morning, sending Patrick Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians for a prospect and compensatory draft capital. If you look closely, conversations have already started around the league with August in mind. We might as well get used to it.
Houston Astros fire sale could come at the MLB trade deadline
- The Houston Astros are considered likely to sell at the MLB trade deadline.
- Players like Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez could be the first to go.
No owner is more competitive than Jim Crane, so he hardly enjoys being mentioned among trade deadline sellers. However, the Houston Astros have just a shade over a 15 percent chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. This is not a very good baseball team, and no managerial move is going to change that. The Astros have too many good, long-term assets for a wake-up call. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Co. have been there and done that before. It pains them just as much as Crane to send spare parts elsewhere to help other contending teams.
But the Astros also have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, per MLB Pipeline. If Houston is going to keep its competitive window open with an influx of young talent, it not only needs to make room for them on the depth chart, but acquire those prospects in exchange for the likes of Alvarez, Christian Walker, Josh Hader, Jeremy Peña and more. This core, as currently assembled, is not getting the job done.
As Bob Nightengale notes, Alvarez, Hader and Walker are owed $110 million next season, with Peña likely to earn as much as $30-plus million in arbitration. Even for Crane, that's not chump change.
San Francisco Giants position themselves for Roch Cholowsky
- The San Francisco Giants traded Patrick Bailey and acquired extra draft pool money.
- They hope to use that money on Roch Cholowsky, should he drop to them.
Roch Cholowsky is the Bryce Harper of this MLB Draft class. It's been a long time since the MLB Draft has had a consensus No. 1 pick. And while the league-wide expectation is that the Chicago White Sox will select the UCLA product with their top selection, if for some reason money is a holdup, the Giants are ready to pounce.
Much of the reason Buster Posey traded Patrick Bailey to the Guardians wasn't just because of their compensatory pick, but also to acquire more bonus pool money. The Giants now have over $17 million to spend on this draft class. If, for some reason, Cholowsky were to force the White Sox's hand, then San Francisco is ready to pounce.
"The Giants have the fourth pick in the draft, but if Cholowsky demands a signing bonus exceeding slot value, the Giants will be waiting. Their slot value at the No. 4 pick is $8.988 million, while the Chicago White Sox have the No. 1 pick and a slot value of $11.35 million," Nightengale wrote.
That's a lot of money to invest in one draft pick, and the White Sox have a lot of holes to fill despite their promising start to the 2026 season. Again, it's a longshot, but expect the Giants to scout Cholowsky heavily. This rumor will get back to his agency.
MLB executives have solution to the Shohei Ohtani rule
- MLB teams are upset the Dodgers get a special exemption with Shohei Ohtani
- Teams have a solution that could work for everyone
The current MLB rules limit the number of pitchers any team can employ at once at 13. The Dodgers essentially get a special exemption since Shohei Ohtani isn't just a pitcher, but also a DH. Thus, they get an extra pitcher. This has been brought to the attention of MLB media by the likes of Craig Counsell, who complained about it during the Cubs series against LA.
Thankfully, MLB teams have an easy solution to this rule that could be resolved in the next CBA.
"GMs want the ability to construct the roster the way they desire, enabling them to have more pitchers on the roster and fewer position players, if they so choose. The original rule was designed to speed up games with fewer available relievers and pitching changes, but with a pitch clock now greatly speeding up the game, in place, that concern may be alleviated," Nightengale wrote.
So...easy fix? We'll add that to the very limited list of what players and owners can agree on before what feels like an inevitable lockout.
More MLB news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google