The confetti has just settled from the Los Angeles Dodgers' championship parade, but already it's time to shift into Hot Stove season. Free agency is set to officially begin later this week, and as stars and their teams around the league make option decisions, the market is beginning to come further into focus.
It'll take a little while for the action to start flying, but the rumor mill is already working overtime. Before GM meetings later this month (and Winter Meetings after that), here's the current lay of the land involving some of the biggest names of the offseason, from Kyle Schwarber to Tarik Skubal.
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MLB Rumors: Phillies face an uphill battle to re-sign Kyle Schwarber
It's a perilous time in Philadelphia right now, as the Phillies look to remain a contender in the National League despite an aging core and two straight NLDS exits. Their offense, once again, pulled a disappearing act in October, which would seem to make re-signing free agent Kyle Schwarber a top priority this winter.
But that might be easier said than done, at least according to ESPN's Jesse Rogers, who included a stern warning for the Phillies in his offseason preview column on Wednesday: "The Phillies need him more than he needs them, according to insiders."
It's hard to disagree with that assessment, as much as Philly doesn't want to hear it. Yes, Schwarber will be 33 on Opening Day, and yes, he's a DH only at this point in his career. But the bat is so good that any contending team would want it in the middle of their lineup, and his age will necessitate a shorter-term deal that will keep more suitors in the hunt. The Cubs, the Red Sox, the Braves, the Reds, the Padres, the Giants, the Mariners — the list of teams with money to spend and an opening for Schwarber is almost endless. The list of hitters who could replace Schwarber's production in Philly, however, is much, much shorter.
Of course, it's entirely possible that Schwarber has loved his time in Philadelphia enough that he wants to finish his career there. He's grown into a clubhouse leader, and there's still a ton of talent on the roster. But it's going to be difficult for the Phillies to win this bidding war otherwise.
MLB Rumors: Tigers 'expected' to hold onto Tarik Skubal, but extension remains unlikely
The future of Tigers ace Tarik Skubal looms over this offseason. How serious is Detroit about signing him to a contract extension a year before he's set to hit free agency? And if those talks break down, will Scott Harris opt to trade him now rather than risk losing him for nothing on the open market (or getting less at the trade deadline this summer)? Skubal may well be the best pitcher on planet Earth, and if the Tigers do start shopping him, it would kick off a frenzy that would dwarf even the Juan Soto sweepstakes from a couple of years ago.
Unfortunately for those of us who love a good mess, it doesn't seem like it'll come to that — at least not yet. While his colleague, Buster Olney, considers a Skubal extension wildly unlikely, ESPN's Jeff Passan writes that "the industry expects Detroit to hold onto" Skubal rather than entertaining a trade for him this offseason.
Which makes some sense. This is a team that's reached the ALDS in consecutive seasons, and should the favorite in the AL Central once again next spring. Giving away a Cy Young winner like Skubal in the midst of your competitive window would be a tough pill to swallow, even if the lefty is set on hitting free agency next offseason. Holding on to him would allow the Tigers to make one more run, and they can always revisit trade talks at the deadline confident that they can still receive a haul in return.
That haul won't be as large as it would be now, though, when teams have plenty of time to negotiate with the knowledge they'd be getting a full year of Skubal's services. The Tigers should just pay up to keep Skubal around; that seems like a pipe dream at this point, which will lead to some uncomfortable choices.
MLB Rumors: Red Sox prefer filling rotation need via trade rather than free agency
One of the teams that would be best positioned to land Skubal if he did in fact become available? The Boston Red Sox, who have both a need to fill in their starting rotation and plenty of prospect depth from which to pull if the right player came along.
So it's hardly a surprise that, per The Athletic's Jim Bowden, "trading for a top-tier starter is [Boston]'s preferred route" rather than acquiring someone like Dylan Cease in free agency. With Lucas Giolito potentially moving on and little in the way of known quantities behind Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello, the Red Sox need to add at least one impact arm this offseason. And even beyond Skubal, there are no shortage of those available on the trade market, from Twins righties Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez to Marlins righties Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera to Brewers righty Freddy Peralta.
The hitting market, on the other hand, is much thinner. For Boston to add some necessary oomph to their lineup, they'll likely need to pay up, whether for someone like Schwarber or Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso or some combination of the above. Affording one of those names and winning the bidding for someone like Cease or Framber Valdez would be tricky for Craig Breslow to pull off. Dipping into a deep farm system, on the other hand, would allow Breslow to address his rotation question while keeping his financial powder dry in order to acquire a bat or two in free agency.