Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Memorial Day serves as a critical checkpoint for MLB teams to assess their playoff viability this season
- Several would-be playoff teams are showing vulnerabilities against teams above .500, raising questions about their true contention levels
- The Yankees and Dodgers in particular have fallen out of first place as a result.
Memorial Day is traditionally the time when MLB teams take a look in the mirror. We're a week away from that point in the MLB calendar, but it's never too soon to for front offices to take stock in their chances. Look no further than the San Francisco Giants, which traded catcher Patrick Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians last week.
While contending teams can only play the schedules they are given, an easy way to take stock in division players like the Yankees and Dodgers is to look at their record against teams over .500. Both teams have some work to do in that department, and they're not alone.
AL East

Team | Record | Games back | Last 10 Games | Record vs .500 teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 26-13 | -- | 8-2 | 5-1 |
New York Yankees | 26-15 | 1.0 | 6-4 | 1-5 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 18-22 | 8.5 | 4-6 | 5-4 |
Baltimore Orioles | 18-23 | 9.0 | 3-7 | 2-9 |
Boston Red Sox | 17-23 | 9.5 | 5-5 | 1-5 |
For the first time all season, the New York Yankees hit a roadblock, albeit a rather minor one. These Tampa Bay Rays appear to be real — like a small-market gnat the Yanks just can't get rid of — thanks to the efforts of Junior Caminero and a pitching staff playing beyond the sum of its parts. One quick look at Tampa Bay's record against teams over .500 makes it clear that they are giant slayers. The Yankees, on the other hand, have some work to do. New York hasn't performed up to par against teams with a .500 record or greater.
The Rays took two out of three against the rival Red Sox over the weekend after sweeping the Blue Jays and Giants previous to that. The rest of the division, meanwhile, has taken significant steps back despite the expectation they'd all play a role in the playoff race. The AL remains wide open, but the O's, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been disappointing to say the least.
AL Central

Team | Record | Games back | Last 10 Games | Record vs .500 teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians | 21-21 | -- | 5-5 | 3-3 |
Chicago White Sox | 19-21 | 1.0 | 6-4 | 2-4 |
Detroit Tigers | 19-22 | 1.5 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
Kansas City Royals | 19-22 | 1.5 | 7-3 | 4-9 |
Minnesota Twins | 18-23 | 2.5 | 5-5 | 3-6 |
The Guardians are steady eddy in a division that's been anything but that so far this season. Cleveland has a slight edge on the White Sox and Tigers as of this writing, but the team they really ought to be worried about is the Kansas City Royals. While the Royals record against teams over .500 leaves much to be desired, there also aren't many contenders in the American League. It helps that most of the Central is under .500, giving the Royals a life jacket to figure things out early in the season.
Cleveland's trade for Patrick Bailey should loom large, as it's the biggest deal completed to this juncture. Bailey isn't providing much support at the plate, but he's one of the best defensive catchers in baseball when he's on.
AL West

Team | Record | Games back | Last 10 Games | Record vs .500 teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Athletics | 21-19 | -- | 5-5 | 3-3 |
Texas Rangers | 19-21 | 2.0 | 5-5 | 5-8 |
Seattle Mariners | 19-22 | 2.5 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
Los Angeles Angels | 16-25 | 5.5 | 4-6 | 2-2 |
Houston Astros | 16-25 | 5.5 | 5-5 | 4-5 |
Much like the AL Central, the AL West doesn't have a clear-cut frontrunner. The Athletics are a nice story, but if they finish ahead of both the Rangers and Mariners, then both teams ought to consider major changes this coming winter. Seattle remains the most intriguing team in this division. The defending AL West champions have struggled out the gate, and none more than Cal Raleigh, who is hitless in over 30 at-bats and counting.
Again, it's important to remember it's early May. There's a good chance the Mariners turn their season around. The A's, while impressive thus far, will eventually face stiffer competition when the schedule calls for it. A six-game sample size isn't enough to make any sweeping declarations about, unfortunately.
NL East

Team | Record | Games back | Last 10 Games | Record vs .500 teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves | 28-13 | -- | 6-4 | 2-1 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 19-22 | 9.0 | 7-3 | 2-11 |
Miami Marlins | 19-22 | 9.0 | 4-6 | 8-8 |
Washington Nationals | 19-22 | 9.0 | 5-5 | 10-13 |
New York Mets | 15-25 | 12.5 | 5-5 | 3-9 |
The NL East remains the Braves and everyone else. Atlanta opened up a big division lead early, and it'll take a monumental task from the Phillies (or any other team) to overtake them. Matt Olson is playing like an MVP candidate, and the Braves are fresh off taking two of three from the back-to-back World Series champion Dodgers. And, per the standings, that was their first real test of the season. They'll have another this coming week against the Cubs.
Speaking of those Phillies, their incremental improvements over the last couple weeks haven't gone unnoticed. At 19-22, Philadelphia is well within striking distance of an NL Wild Card spot just weeks after firing manager Rob Thomson.
NL Central

Team | Record | Games back | Last 10 Games | Record vs .500 teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs | 27-14 | -- | 8-2 | 8-5 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 22-16 | 3.5 | 7-3 | 2-3 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 23-17 | 3.5 | 6-4 | 9-4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 22-19 | 5.0 | 6-4 | 10-9 |
Cincinnati Reds | 22-19 | 5.0 | 2-8 | 1-9 |
The Cubs are arguably the most proven contender in this entire mix. They're 8-5 against teams over .500 in part thanks to their division — every team in the NL Central has a winning record. The Cubs face a stiff test this week when the Atlanta Braves come to town. If they can hold their own against Atlanta, the Cubs can make a real argument to be ranked No. 1 in our MLB Power Rankings this time next week.
As for the rest of the division, the Milwaukee Brewers have emerged from their early-season slumber, which should concern the rest of the Central. If the Cubs and Brewers start to distance themselves from the rest of this group, it could become a two-horse race in short order.
NL West

Team | Record | Games back | Last 10 Games | Record vs .500 teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres | 24-16 | -- | 5-5 | 5-5 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 24-16 | -- | 4-6 | 4-5 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 19-20 | 4.5 | 3-7 | 5-13 |
San Francisco Giants | 16-24 | 8.0 | 3-7 | 8-7 |
Colorado Rockies | 16-25 | 8.5 | 2-8 | 4-13 |
Are the Dodgers human? It sure seems like it, as Los Angeles has dropped six of its last 10 games overall and, following a series loss to the Braves this weekend, are 4-5 against teams with a .500 record or better. I expect them to course correct before the end of the season, obviously, but there could be an opening for a team like the San Diego Padres to give themselves a decent cushion in the next week or so.
Speaking of those pesky Padres, they're flying under the radar a bit so far this season. Mason Miller is a godsend in the bullpen, and San Diego's lineup has started to play up to its potential, which includes Fernando Tatis Jr. The 27-year-old has raised his average and OPS over the last week, though the latter remains at just a .611 clip. There's plenty of room to improve, but the fact the Padres are even tied with the Dodgers at this point in the season, despite not playing their best ball, is worth celebrating for this fanbase.
