Kyle Schwarber is officially re-signing with the Philadelphia Phillies on a five-year, $150 million contract, per ESPN's Jeff Passan. His $30 million AAV is a DH record, and Schwarber's age (33) makes this a somewhat risky investment. But coming off an MVP runner-up season in which he hit 56 home runs and logged a .928 OPS, this was a no-brainer.
The Phillies need Schwarber's bat in the middle of the lineup, just like they need his leadership in the clubhouse. Sure, this contract is a slight reach, but there was simply no better option for Philadelphia's current needs. As for their long-term outlook? Well, it does get a bit more complicated.
Kyle Schwarber limits Phillies' flexibility for next half-decade
There isn't a better full-time DH in MLB besides Shohei Ohtani, but the Phillies are infringing upon their own flexibility here. Bryce Harper, 33 years old and under contract through 2031, probably crosses the rubicon and becomes preferable as a DH within the next five years. But this deal locks Harper at first base, regardless of how his glove ages — or how burdensome the physical toll of defense becomes.
This is also bad news for the Nick Castellanos truthers out there, of which there are precious few. Schwarber can still log the occasional spot start in left field, but he's essentially the worst defensive outfielder in MLB and is tied at the hip to DH at-bats for the rest of his career. It could be worse, though, because he's one of the most impactful hitters in MLB and his presence in the Phillies' lineup i nothing short of transformative.
All that said, here are the Phillies stars who might not last the duration of their contract after the Schwarber signing.
3B Alec Bohm
Does he even last through the offseason? Alec Bohm is entering his final year of arbitration. An All-Star in 2024, Bohm has his perks. He's a solid contact hitter with line-drive power to both fields and an exceptionally low strikeout rate. He's a solid cleanup bat for Philadelphia, if not the needle-moving infield star Phillies fans so desperately desire.
As such, Bohm could end up as premium trade bait the rest of the offseason. The Phillies remain connected to Ketel Marte, Alex Bregman and other infield upgrades. Odds are Bregman and other top free agents fall off the board with Schwarber locked up, but Dave Dombrowski built his reputation on bold swings. This team needs a lot more than Schwarber to level up.
Trading Bohm as a means to an end — whether it's adding a more potent bat at third base or an innings-eating starting pitcher to replace Ranger Suárez — feels imminently possible.
SP Jesús Luzardo
The Phillies are approaching a crossroads with Jesús Luzardo. The hard-throwing lefty was sensational in the playoffs and his impact far exceeded the surface-level numbers last season. He finished with a 3.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but Luzardo struck out 216 in 183.2 innings and finished sixth in MLB in pitching fWAR, trailing only Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Cristopher Sánchez, Garrett Crochet and Logan Webb.
Philadelphia should make every effort to retain Luzardo beyond next season, but between the current payroll, the imminent arrival of Andrew Painter, and the robust free agent market for top pitchers, the odds aren't exactly stacked in Philly's favor. If they can't lock up Luzardo on an extension before he hits the open market, the demand from other teams could extend far beyond what the Phillies are willing to spend. Long-term obligations to Aaron Nola, not to mention Schwarber, Harper and Turner on offense, are limiting factors.
The Phillies, again, should extend Luzardo — and make it a top-tier priority. Just don't be shocked when this drags out until the offseason and Luzardo winds up taking $200 million from the Mets or something else upsetting.
1B Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper is a legend in Philadelphia and he's under contract through 2031, so chalk this up as a "remote possibility," rather than an expected outcome. That said, the stage has been set for an eventual breakup. Dave Dombrowski caused quite a stir this offseason when he openly questioned if Harper could return to the superstar heights of old. It was a completely unnecessary and incidiary comment, exacerbated by the Phillies' unwillingness to engage in the contract extension talks that Harper openly campaigns for.
"Clearly, Dombrowski's comments, [he's] been around way too long to say that without some meaning behind it, I continue to wonder if the meaning is that [Bryce Harper] is unhappy with his contract and this was a kind of side glance back at him," NY Post reporter Will Sherman said (h/t Sports Illustrated). "Would I be 100 percent shocked if Bryce Harper got traded this offseason? No."
Harper won't get traded this offseason, but at some point in the next five years? Don't write it off. Harper is a perfectly solid first baseman right now, but age and durability concerns will lead the DH chatter to heat up eventually. The Phillies can't DH him. Plus, if Philadelphia can't scale the mountaintop with this core, dramatic action will be required in the not-so-distant future.
There is some overlap in utility between Schwarber and Harper as supercharged lefty bats, and there's a decent chance Schwarber ages more gracefully into his mid-to-late 30s. Just put a pin in this and keep it in the back of your mind, Phillies fans.