Pirates fans waiting for other shoe to drop on Konnor Griffin's call-up

Just six games into the MLB season, with a dead even 3-3 record, the Pittsburgh Pirates are calling up Konnor Griffin, the No. 1 prospect in baseball. The 19-year-old will join Pittsburgh for its home opener against the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, where he will presumably start at shortstop.

This is a major decision for Pittsburgh, especially this early in the campaign. It's a sign that the Bucs are serious about winning — at least more serious than they've been in the past — and less worried about service time manipulation. It may also signal confidence in a potential extension, which could lock up Griffin through his prime years .

Can the Pirates sign Konnor Griffin to a contract extension?

It sure sounds like the two sides are on track to get something done. According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Pirates and Griffin are already "deep in negotiations." Pittsburgh is hoping for something in the Corbin Carroll range of eight years, $111 million, while Griffin figures himself worthy of the Roman Anthony treatment of eight years, $130 million. That is a gap of less than $4 million annually, which hardly seems insurmountable for the highly-touted prospect who's about to become the first teenager to debut in MLB since Juan Soto.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden added to the speculation on Thursday afternoon, saying a deal could be finalized before Griffin even takes the field.

Griffin, a first-round pick in 2024, has minimal pro experience, but it hardly seems to matter. He generated consistent hard contact in spring training and his brief Minor League forays have yielded nothing but excellent production. On paper, Griffin is the total five-tool package — able to hit for average and power, with 30-30 caliber athleticism and a rangy glove at a premium position.

Pittsburgh has been reluctant to dole out massive long-term commitments in the past, but this winter saw them pursue the likes of Kyle Schwarber and even Framber Valdez, while Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn and Marcell Ozuna were all investments of consequence. If there anyone on this roster worth really paying up for (aside from maybe Paul Skenes), it's Griffin, whose ceiling is that of a future MVP.

So yes: with the CBA negotations on the horizon and an increasingly uncertain (immediate) future in MLB, the Pirates ought to pony up and extend Griffin. They won't lock him up in perpetuity, but even locking him up a couple years beyond his arbitration window figures to be worth it.

The biggest shortstop contracts in MLB right now

The easiest point of comparison here is Fernando Tatis Jr., who was only a couple years older than Griffin when San Diego hammered out a massive 14-year extension. Tatis had a strong rookie season, but he logged less than a year of service time when his new contract was announced.

Griffin is a more touted prospect. He also has not logged any service time yet, and he's two years younger. So this is not a one-for-one comparison. The odds of Griffin inking a 14-year deal are extremely slim, as that would take him into his age-34 season — probably too far past his prime, and thus past the window for another massive payday down the road.

That is why Roman Anthony, Corbin Carroll or even Mariners 20-year-old Colt Emerson, who inked an eight-year, $95 million extension in Seattle this week, are the better points of comparison. An eight-year contract would allow Pittsburgh to buy out two years of free agency while more fairly compensating Griffin in these early years, as he's sure to blow past the standard production for MLB's minimum salary.

Predicting Konnor Griffin's next contract

Final prediction: 8 years, $136 million

At the end of the day, there's no reason Griffin shouldn't challenge Roman Anthony's contract and reset the market for top prospects. There is a bit more uncertainty with Griffin, just because we haven't technically seem him against MLB competition yet, but all the signs point in a very positive direction. This deal would come out to $17 million annually, which is a steal in the current marketplace. It's also a fair hedge, both for Griffin, who gets eight years of security, and for Pittsburgh, who gets to avoid a premature departure in free agency. The Pirates front office and their fans don't want to spend the next five years listening the constant Griffin trade speculation.

Griffin has a chance to take this Pirates team to the next level. It's typically wise to temper your expectations for a 19-year-old getting his first taste of MLB action, but there just aren't many historic analogs for an ascent this steep and and this quick. You don't get to MLB at 19 if you aren't clearly ready, beyond all reasonable doubt. Griffin might need an adjustment period, like most rookies do, but he should produce impressive results out of the gate. It's not like watching him reveals any hint of youth; he has the physical and mental strength of a veteran.

This could be a very exciting couple of weeks in Pittsburgh. The next generation has arrived. Hopefully, it's there to stay a while.

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