Ranking top MLB prospects by the likelihood they start on Opening Day

Baseball is back and Spring Training is upon us, which means all eyes will be focused on MLB's top prospects. The next month or so is dedicated to position battles, as managers sift through their options and attempt to determine the best plan of attack for Opening Day and beyond.

The following prospects from MLB Pipeline's Top 100 are all at camp for their respective teams. All have a realistic path to starting next season in the Majors. That said, the path is clearer for some than it is for others. Let's rank 20 of the game's best young players by their chances of taking the field on Opening Day.

20-15: Need a dominant spring

Several of these prospects "should," in a perfect world, start on Opening Day. Kevin McGonigle and Colt Emerson stand out as obvious MLB-ready talents, despite their relative youth and lack of experience. Both possess advanced hit tools, with well-rounded profiles at premium positions.

Unfortunately, Detroit has a wealth of experienced infielders and other top prospects (or former top prospects, like Trey Sweeney) in line to compete for shortstop reps in the short term. Both Zach McKinstry and Javy Báez figure to spend time there early in the season, with Detroit already built to contend. Letting McGonigle gestate in the Minors for a couple more months, while preserving an extra year of service time, could be the move for a financially stringent front office.

Seattle has JP Crawford locked at shortstop, meaning Emerson is taking reps at third and second base in an attempt to broaden his avenues to the MLB lineup. Seattle let both Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco walk as free agents, but the Brendan Donovan trade should soak up the majority of third base reps (and plenty of second base reps, too). Meanwhile, former top prospect Cole Young is ahead of Emerson in the pecking order still, and probably starts at second base on Opening Day unless Emerson completely outclasses him in camp.

Ryan Waldschmidt hasn't reached Triple-A yet for Arizona, but he's generating buzz in D-backs camp and there's a noticeable hole in the outfield with Lourdes Gurriel recovering from ACL surgery. So, if he comes into camp and rakes, it's not impossible to leapfrog an inexperienced Jorge Barrosa. Still, the odds favor another year of seasoning in the high Minors.

Joe Mack is a superior defensive catcher to Agustín Ramírez, which could tempt Miami to bump the latter to DH. That could complicate the path for another top Marlins prospect (more on that later), as it would muddy the outfield waters if Griffin Conine is an everyday fielder. That said, Mack lacks the offensive polish of other prospects in his range, and there's a chance Miami slowly incorperates him as a backup or a platoon option over time rather than as an everyday backstop from day one.

Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins both feel ready for a spot in the Twins' lineup, but Minnesota has several established lefty outfielders, plus there's head-to-head competition for limited oxygen between the two of them. Rodriguez is a couple years older, a bit more seasoned. Jenkins is the more touted prospect. In the end, both probably start the season in Triple-A, especially given Jenkins' worrisome injury history.

14-11: The job is there for the taking

Harry Ford might belong in the prior tier, to be honest, but the Nationals traded a key reliever in Jose A. Ferrer to bring the athletic catcher over from Seattle. While Ford has experimented in the outfield before, his path to regular at-bats in DC is certainly behind home plate. Keibert Ruiz struggled mighty this past season and Drew Millas, despite a highly disciplined offensive approach, does not come close to matching Ford's upside. The latter made his MLB debut with Seattle in 2025, despite the presence of Cal Raleigh.

The Nats could mess around with service time as their rebuild clock essentially starts over, but Ford has produced enough in the Minors — and offers such a unique and well-rounded skill set for a young catcher — that it feels like he should start Opening Day. We shall see if any of that actually matters.

Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt are in similar buckets. Both represent undeniable upgrades over their respective teams' current options at second base (Wetherholt is a shortstop by trade, but he's not bumping Masyn Winn off that spot in St. Louis). And yet, the Cardinals have Thomas Saggese, a former top-five organizational prospect with similar versatility if not nearly as much star-power at the plate. Cleveland has Brayan Rocchio, a former top-five Guards prospect, not to mention Gabriel Arias, Ángel Martínez and other very Guardians-coded options peppering the roster.

Bazzana will spend part of his spring with Team Australia at the World Baseball Classic. That gives him a chance to shine on the international stage, but it also takes him away from camp as Stephen Vogt sets his lineups. Cleveland is also cheap, so blatant service time manipulation is always in play. Wetherholt's situation is a bit more nuanced: He would probably start, no questions asked, if the Cards cared about competing this season. But they don't, and starting the clock early might not be high on Chaim Bloom's list of priorities.

Carson Benge felt like an Opening Day lock for much of the offseason, but the Mets' flurry of late additions — Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., etc. — complicates the situation a bit. Robert figures to start every game in center field, which bumps Benge to a corner. Juan Soto has moved to left field now, officially. Benge has the range and arm to thrive in right, and he's a very smart hitter, but the Bichette signing left Brett Baty without a home at third base. New York has thus experimented with Baty in the outfield, where he projects reasonably well. His experience and productivity from last season could stack the odds against Benge, even if the front office has expressed every confidence in him.

10-7: The job is theirs to lose

Konnor Griffin is the belle of the ball this spring. All eyes are on MLB's consensus No. 1 prospect, who will get a chance to secure his spot in the Opening Day lineup at just 19 years old. Griffin is a five-tool player with very few discernible weaknesses. Pittsburgh wants to contend this season and their best option at shortstop — without a doubt — is Griffin.

That said, he's still 19, with less than 60 games of Double-A experience. Pittsburgh also has Nick Gonzales, an established, well-liked veteran who is probably better than last season's mediocre offensive numbers suggest. So while we all want to see Griffin on the Opening Day roster, potentially batting leadoff in a revamped lineup, it's not quite a guarantee. Especially given Pittsburgh's track record of slow-playing top prospects to preserve club control.

Owen Caissie should start in right field for the Marlins, but let's circle all the way back to Joe Mack for a second. If Miami decides to start Agustin Ramírez at DH, that puts Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Griffin Conine in left, center and right — all far more established than Caissie, who struggled upon his MLB call-up last season, despite a track record of exceptional Minor League production. The Marlins gave up Edward Cabrera to acquire Caissie and ought to invest, but Miami's outfield depth does not guarantee anything.

Philadelphia's front office and coaching staff have been aligned on their Justin Crawford messaging all summer: He will get every chance to earn the starting job in center field. It helps that the Phillies didn't really give themselves much of an option, unless Rob Thomson wants to start Johan Rojas again or bump Brandon Marsh to center in favor of Otto Kemp taking starting reps in left. Those are options, to be sure, but Crawford's elite contact skills, speed and defensive range put him in prime position to claim an Opening Day spot.

Moisés Ballesteros arrived in Chicago late last season and mashed, essentially claiming the DH spot for himself despite the Cubs' overwhelming outfield depth. Ballesteros won't bump Carson Kelly out of starting catcher reps any time soon — perhaps never — but unless Tyler Austin or Kevin Alcántara put on an absolute show this spring, it's hard to imagine Ballesteros not getting the DH nod in the opener — especially with a righty on the docket for Opening Day in Arizona's Merrill Kelly.

6-1: Basically locks to start on Opening Day

The calculus is fairly simple here. Every one of these "prospects" debuted and regularly started at some point last season. Dylan Beavers logged 110 at-bats in Baltimore, with a .775 OPS and 120 OPS+. He's their right fielder, point blank. Sal Stewart only logged 55 at-bats in Cincy, but he's flexible position-wise and enough of a power source (in a lineup that desperately needs it) to command DH reps, if all else fails.

Bryce Eldridge was a late call-up for San Francisco. He didn't do much in scant MLB at-bats (3-for-28) but he still generated absurd exit velocities, in keeping with his Minor Leauge profile. Rafael Devers is blocking him at first base, but there's little competition for the Giants' DH spot. Eldridge is too talented not to break out with a longer runway this season.

Baltimore's Samuel Basallo and Kansas City's Carter Jensen both debuted last season as elite catching prospects blocked by more established veterans (Adley Rutschman and Salvador Perez, respectively). Both figure to command DH reps accordingly, with Basallo a candidate to start at first base on occasion when Pete Alonso gets a rest. Basallo was one of the nuttiest left-handed power bats in the Minors last season. He struggled in his first taste of MLB action, but it's a matter of time. Jensen was immediately productive for Kansas City and the Royals desperately need his pop in the lineup.

Chase DeLauter's MLB path last season was unique. After years of injuries delaying his ascent, he finally made his first Guardians start against the Detroit in the Wild Card round of all places. Cleveland has its share of options, but the Guardians' youth movement is imminent. DeLauter offers a viable power tool in a lineup that is typically far too dependent on dinky singles and clever base-running. The Guardians need someone in the heart of the order who can protect José Ramírez and Kyle Manzardo (or vice versa) and generate runs. DeLauter should hit the ground running as a rookie.