Boston Red Sox fans might not have predicted this outcome after the team traded Rafael Devers away, but the team has played well enough, even without the star DH, to be trade deadline buyers. At 56-50, the Red Sox hold sole possession of the third Wild Card spot as of this writing, which is both encouraging and eye-opening. This team might be good enough to get to the postseason as constructed, but can the Red Sox make a deep playoff run without a big trade deadline? Probably not.
One area where the Red Sox must improve is at first base. Triston Casas is out for the year, and while Abraham Toro performed admirably for a brief period, the Red Sox need an upgrade. Josh Naylor looked like a realistic target, but he's now a Seattle Mariner. Yandy Diaz would be a dream addition, but considering his additional club control and the fact that he plays for a division rival, that's probably unlikely. That leaves Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan O'Hearn as the new top target. The one problem, though, as The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal pointed out, is that O'Hearn has been mired in a prolonged slump.
"All-Star first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn, like Mullins, is in an extended cold spell, batting .212 with three homers and a .643 OPS since May 27. But as a rental, he could be an option for the Red Sox, among other clubs, if Díaz is unavailable or is traded elsewhere," Rosenthal wrote.
On paper, O'Hearn makes perfect sense for the Red Sox. He was an All-Star, and his .824 OPS on the season would rank ahead of all Red Sox qualifiers other than Devers. Again, the issue is his recent play.
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Ryan O'Hearn's prolonged slump makes him a risky target
Even after going 2-for-5 on Saturday, O'Hearn is hitting .228 with one home run and a .699 OPS in July - not what you want from a big bat. In fact, since the start of June, O'Hearn has slashed .215/.318/.331 with three home runs and 18 RBI. He got off to such a roaring start in the first two months of the season to the point where he was a starter in the All-Star Game, but he's been mired in a two-month slump now.
There are two ways Red Sox fans can look at this slump. From a positive lens, Red Sox fans can dream of acquiring O'Hearn, a struggling rental, at a bargain price, and then hope for a turnaround as he joins a contending team. On the flip side, though, Red Sox fans can look at O'Hearn's past two months and wonder if he'll turn it around in the two or three months he'll be in Beantown.
Both arguments make sense to some degree, but with Naylor off the board and Diaz probably a pipe dream, it's hard for the Red Sox to do much better than O'Hearn.
Red Sox should still pursue Ryan O'Hearn even amid brutal slump
Would it be ideal to acquire a slumping hitter, especially when he's a rental? Of course not. However, again, the lack of alternative options makes this a fairly easy decision for Breslow to make. Plus, if we're being honest, there's reason to believe he'll turn things around sooner rather than later.
O'Hearn's been struggling lately, but even with that, he has an outstanding .875 OPS against right-handed pitching. That kind of production paired with what Romy Gonzalez can do against left-handers makes for one lethal platoon.
In addition to this, while O'Hearn made his first All-Star team this season, it's not as if he's in the midst of some random breakout. In fact, since the start of the 2023 campaign, his 121 WRC+ ranks No. 11 among all qualified primary first basemen, just two points behind Naylor, and ahead of guys like Luis Arraez, Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker.
O'Hearn has a proven track record of success, has performed well at Fenway Park over his career (.824 OPS), and, thanks to his slump and expiring contract status, won't cost much to acquire. He isn't Naylor or Diaz, but he's a major upgrade over what they have, and has the ability to be a key producer down the stretch and in October.