In addition to the Boston Red Sox needing a starting pitcher and potentially an upgrade at first base at the MLB Trade Deadline, one of the secondary needs often mentioned for Alex Cora's team under Craig Breslow's watch has been some more bullpen help. However, after looking at the price that a team like the Mets just paid for Tyler Rogers, giving up a major-league bullpen arm and two Top 12 prospects, perhaps that should be thrown out the window.
Make no mistake, the Red Sox have to largely feel good about the state of the bullpen, even with Justin Slaten still on the IL (Liam Hendriks, too, but he seems like less of a factor). Boston ranked fourth in MLB coming into Wednesday's game in bullpen ERA (3.37). Aroldis Chapman has been arguably the best closer in baseball this season. Garrett Whitlock has returned to form. Greg Weissert has leveled up. Brennan Bernardino and Justin Wilson have been great lefty options. Even Chris Murphy and Jorge Alcala have been better than expected.
At the same time, one of the concerns for Boston has been the overuse of the bullpen, particularly dating back to early in the season. Because the Red Sox starting pitchers outside of Garrett Crochet were struggling, the bullpen was leaned on heavily. For the most part, they did their job. However, those are the kind of workloads that can come back to haunt a team late in the season. Subsequently, that's why reinforcements at the trade deadline have been part of the conversation.
But at the price that the Red Sox would seemingly have to pay for a substantial bullpen addition at the trade deadline, Boston would be better off turning to the likes of Payton Tolle, David Sandlin or Connelly Early, assuming they aren't traded, as bullpen reinforcements rather than forking over high-end prospect capital to compete in the reliever trade market.
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Red Sox better off promoting Payton Tolle than trading for bullpen arm at the deadline
For starters, it's looking more and more like Tolle, a second-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft out of TCU, has the goods to immediately contribute to the Red Sox bullpen in September of this season. He was promoted to Double-A Portalnd this year after dominated High-A Greenville and has continued to run amok. Over five outings and four starts, Tolle has a 1.96 ERA with a 0.739 WHIP to go along with a 12.1 strikeouts-per-9 rate. He's been the goods with a high-90s fastball and developing breaking pitches.
Early and Sandlin, meanwhile, were recently promoted to Triple-A Worcester, and both have electric stuff in their own right. All three pitchers could project as starters somewhere down the line for the Red Sox, but they also all have the stuff in their arsenal to more immediately be factors in the bullpen if Boston indeed does need reinforcements or help down the stretch.
That, of course, brings us back to the trade deadline. While the idea of trading for a reliever is enticing — and not off the table if someone like Jhoan Duran or even Ryan Helsley could be had for a reasonable cost, though that seems unlikely — it's not the primary need. This team needs another starting pitcher and, if Kristian Campbell isn't the answer, someone to be an improvement over Abraham Toro at first base.
When you factor all that in, it would seem unreasonable and, given Breslow's tendencies, unlikely that he would quite literally sell the farm (system) in order to address every need. Instead, it's more likely that the Red Sox come to the realization that the price for bullpen help is too steep when coupled with the price of their other pursuits.
That ultimately leaves Boston with the options in house to ride it out in the bullpen. The guys have done a quality job to this point, and there are options to turn to, and the guys in the minors also could be joined by Slaten and Luis Guerrero returning at some point as well. But what's key is that Breslow and the Red Sox can't overextend themselves on the trade market based on the cost that we're seeing for relievers. The other needs are more pressing, so that's where the heaviest, and perhaps only, investments should be focused.