With pitcher Tatsuya Imai and infielder Kazuma Okamoto both reaching agreements with MLB teams over the past few days — and Munetaka Murakami signing with the Chicago White Sox last month — the book has officially closed on this year's class of Japanese free agents looking to jump to the States. Somehow, some way, the Los Angeles Dodgers didn't land any of them, which feels like cause for celebration in its own right.
Of course, that celebration might be short-lived. If recent history has taught us anything, it's that NPB players are only getting better, and sure enough, there's another crop of Japanese stars who could look to make the transition next offseason. Who are the big names to know? Is there anyone who can rival the upside of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Roki Sasaki? Here are four players to keep an eye on.
(Note: NPB players aren't eligible to be posted to the Majors until they're at least 25 years old and have played at least six professional seasons. That means that we'll have to wait a little while longer for tantalizing names like righty Shunpeita Yamashita and others.)
RHP Hiroto Saiki (age: 27)
NPB stats: 590.1 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
Saiki tried to come Stateside this winter, only for his team, the Hanshin Tigers, to deny his posting request. It's hard to believe they'll do so two years in a row, though, and the righty figures to drum up a healthy market next offseason — we know he's already on MLB radars after showing out in an exhibition game against the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of the start of the 2025 campaign.
Saiki isn't going to light up radar guns, and he doesn't generate a ton of swing and miss (his 19.2% K rate this past season was almost exactly the Central League average). But he makes up for that with 1) truly elite command and 2) a wipeout splitter that hitters all over the world have had a hard time making sense of. No less than Dave Roberts called it "Major League stuff", and it's not hard to imagine him developing into a No. 3 or No. 4 starter in the right environment (and, especially, in a pitcher-friendly ballpark).
MLB destination: Giants
LHP Hiroya Miyagi (age: 24)
NPB stats: 750 IP, 2.48 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
Miyagi's diminutive frame will garner his share of skeptics, but at a certain point the results speak for themselves. The lefty has been a star in Japan from pretty much the moment he stepped on an NPB mound as a teenager back in 2020, earning Pacific League Rookie of the Year honors in 2021. He's only gotten better since, among the league leaders in K%-BB% — basically, how well you combine the ability to miss bats with the ability to throw strikes, a pretty sticky predictor of success — year in and year out.
Miyagi downplayed the idea of jumping to the Majors in the past, saying he didn't think he was ready. But he'll turn 25 this year, meaning he'll officially be eligible to be posted. It's possible that the Orix Buffaloes opt to wait an offseason or two to make him available, but given his youth, varied arsenal and the fact that he's a lefty, he'll have plenty of demand.
MLB destination: Dodgers
1B/2B Shugo Maki (age: 27)
NPB stats: .294/.344/.509, 114 HR, 157 BB, 387 K
Maki fell all the way to the second round of the 2020 NPB Draft, but he's done nothing but rake ever since: He's posted wRC+ marks of 145, 144, 151, 152 and 138 across the first five seasons of his career, averaging 20-25 homers to go with 30-40 doubles like clockwork.
Of course, the transition to the Majors for hitters tends to be more difficult than it does for hitters, and there are real red flags in Maki's game. The hit tool is plus, but he has an uber-aggressive approach at the plate (he's posted walk rates below six percent in three of his five years in NPB) that might not play as well against big-league pitching. And while he's nominally a second baseman, it's unclear whether he'd be able to stick there at the MLB level. Still, his ability to put the barrel on the ball consistently figures to give him a decent market.
MLB destination: Padres
RHP Kaima Taira (age: 26)
NPB stats: 446 IP, 1.92 ERA, 1.135, 9.7 K/9
Taira has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the Seibu Lions, excelling in whatever role he's given. And while he just reupped with the Lions this offseason, he wasn't shy about his big-league ambitions, telling Japanese media that "I want to be the type of high-level pitcher that wins the Cy Young award."
That might be a bit lofty, but he can absolutely help a Major League team right away. He's got a kitchen-sink repertoire, and his K rates are eye-opening even considering the fact that he's spent plenty of time as a reliever. (Remember, Japan is a far more contact-oriented environment than the U.S.) It remains to be seen what role will be best for him in the States, but the flexibility to serve as a seventh-inning guy or a No. 5 starter or some combination of the two is awfully valuable in its own right.