We finally got some kindling for the Hot Stove on New Year's Day, as Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai landed with the Houston Astros on a shockingly reasonable deal (so reasonable, in fact, it's fair to wonder why plenty of other teams didn't match or beat it). Imai has never pitched in the Majors, but he was still among the most intriguing names in a wide-open starting pitching market this winter, a 27-year-old who was utterly dominant in his home country.
Now he's off the board, and the many would-be World Series contenders who are in need of some rotation help this witner are left looking elsewhere. The good news is that there are still some quality options available at just about every price point. The bad news, though, is that things could dry up fast if you're not careful. Here's a quick rundown of the seven best starting pitchers left in MLB free agency, and where they might wind up.
1. LHP Framber Valdez
2025 stats: 192 IP, 3.66 ERA, 187 K, 1.245 WHIP, 3.37 FIP
In a swing-and-miss era, Valdez feels like a bit of an anachronism. His game is predicated on contact, posting middling whiff rates and bottom of the barrel average exit velocities year in and year out. He also just turned 32 in November, and the most lasting memory of his 2025 season is the time he may or may not have intentionally crossed up his catcher. He's not going to be everyone's cup of tea, especially if he's asking for ace money.
At a certain point, though, how he gets results isn't nearly as important as the results themselves. And Valdez's results speak for themselves: Since 2020, he ranks 11th in ERA and eighth in fWAR among qualified starters, and he's thrown at least 175 innings in each of the last four years. He's the league's preeminent ground-ball pitcher, and if you pair him with an infield that can handle those grounders effectively, you'll be very happy with the outcome.
Predicted landing spot: Orioles
2. LHP Ranger Suarez
2025 stats: 157.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 151 K, 1.220 WHIP, 3.21 FIP
Since making the transition to starting full time, Suarez has posted a 3.59 ERA while averaging around 150 innings a year. He's also proven himself to be a dynamite postseason performer, coming through for the Phillies in October time and time again. When he's on the mound, all he does is induce weak contact and get outs.
The problem is that his track record of being on the mound, as a starter at least, only dates back to 2021. Suarez also doesn't have the most electric arsenal in the world — his fastball velocity, in particular, is trending in the wrong direction — and he seems to deal with at least one IL stint a year. He's nearly two years younger than Valdez, but he just doesn't feel quite as reliable as a guy to put atop your rotation. For teams that miss out on Valdez, though, he's the clear next-best option.
Predicted landing spot: Giants
3. RHP Zac Gallen
2025 stats: 192 IP, 4.83 ERA, 175 K, 1.260 WHIP, 4.50 FIP
Gallen looked to be on track for a major payday in free agency ... until he put up the walk year from hell in 2025, with career-worst marks in ERA, FIP, K/9 and HR/9. It was ugly, and it likely cost him millions (if not tens of millions) on the open market.
There's a chance that some team could be getting a very intriguing bounce-back candidate, though. Prior to last season, Gallen had established himself as one of the more reliable No. 2s in the sport: He made 93 starts from 2022-2024, with a 3.20 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. And he closed 2025 looking much more like that guy, posting a 3.32 mark over the final two months while slashing his barrel and hard-hit rates.
Of course, Gallen isn't without his red flags. But he's been awfully durable as a Major League starter, and he's still just 30 years old. If he can find his prior form with a change of scenery and some repertoire tweaks, he could be a steal.
Predicted landing spot: Cubs
4. RHP Lucas Giolito
2025 stats: 145 IP, 3.41 ERA, 121 K, 1.290 WHIP, 4.17 FIP
In many ways, it was a positive return from elbow surgery for Giolito, who made his debut for Boston in late April and spent much of the rest of the year as a much-needed source of stability in the Red Sox rotation. But while his top-line numbers were shiny, it was uglier under the hood: The righty's whiff and strikeout rates fell off a cliff, and another elbow ailment cut his season short before the postseason.
All of which makes for a tricky evaluation. If he's healthy, he should be at the very worst a high-floor No. 4 starter, with room for more if the strikeouts tick up another year removed from surgery. Of course, there's also a metric ton of risk involved here, and Giolito might wind up settling for a one-year deal to try and rebuild his value.
Predicted landing spot: Mets
5. RHP Justin Verlander
2025 stats: 152 IP, 3.85 ERA, 137 K, 1.362 WHIP, 3.85 FIP
It seemed like it was finally time to declare Verlander cooked midway through 2025, with an ERA hovering near 5 for the Giants out of the All-Star break. But then, like a true future Hall of Famer, he adjusted: The 42-year-old pitched to a 2.60 ERA (3.36 FIP) from that point on, proving that he could still be an effective big-league pitcher thanks to a diverse arsenal and some top-of-the-scale pitching IQ.
Of course, pitching in San Francisco likely had something to do with those results, and 13 starts isn't that much to go on. But still, Verlander has shown that he's capable of getting outs despite his diminished stuff. If you're a team in a pitching-friendly park that needs a back-end option, you could do a lot worse.
Predicted landing spot: Padres
6. RHP Chris Bassitt
2025 stats: 170.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 166 K, 1.327 WHIP, 4.01 FIP
The Blue Jays left Bassitt out of their postseason rotation, a sign of what Toronto viewed as the 36-year-old's limitations. But he took his relief assignment and ran with it, allowing just one run over 8.2 innings of work while getting high-leverage outs against the Los Angeles Dodgers' gamut of All-Stars.
Granted, Bassitt is looking to be treated as a starting pitcher again as he hits the market this winter. And there's a hard ceiling on a guy in his late 30s who's got pretty much bang-average stuff. But what Bassitt lacks in electricity, he makes up for with guile, knowing exactly how to mix, match and locate his whopping eight-pitch arsenal. He might not get the ball for your team in October, but if you want to actually get to October in the first place, there's always room for ~170 innings of a 4.00 ERA.
Predicted landing spot: Tigers
7. RHP Zack Littell
2025 stats: 186.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 130 K, 1.104 WHIP, 4.88 FIP
Littell is a nibbler: He gets by living on the edges of the strike zone (79th percentile chase rate), and he gets punished whenever he catches too much of the plate (home runs have always been and will always be a major concern). But he's pitched to a 3.80 ERA over the last three seasons, transforming himself from a fringe depth option to a legitimate rotation consideration. Things could go pear-shaped very quickly, but Littell has shown that he knows how to work with what he's got, and he could provide back-end value for some team on the cheap.