Team USA vs Dominican Republic predictions: Where the WBC showdown could be decided

The matchup everyone's been waiting for is finally here. Team USA faces off against the Dominican Republic in what is essentially a meaningful All-Star Game with a trip to the World Baseball Classic final on the line. With all due respect to Italy and Venezuela, there's a good chance that the winner of this game will win the World Baseball Classic.

This clash of the titans could conceivably go either way, given how talented the teams are, but which country will come out on top? Let's dive in and compare these two beasts.

Which team has the lineup edge?

Winner: Dominican Republic

Team USA has a lineup full of All-Stars, headlined by Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, but their lineup, with all due respect, is not close to as formidable as the Dominican Republic's. The DR has a better lineup on paper, and it's performed better in the WBC as well.

Team USA's lineup isn't bad by any means. In fact, if they could hit a bit better with runners in scoring position, the stats would probably be closer than they appear. With that being said, the Dominican Republic leads the world in just about every major offensive category.

To put into perspective how dominant the DR has been, it has eight different players to hit a home run in the tournament. The USA has seven home runs in total. Six players on the DR have hit two home runs. Again, the USA has seven home runs overall. Home runs are what can flip any given game, and the DR can do damage in bunches.

The DR has scored 10 or more runs in four of its five games thus far, with the only exception being a seven-run performance against a Venezuela team that's punched its ticket to the semifinals. The USA has done this just once, and that came in its first game of the tournament against a Brazil team that was the worst in its pool. USA's lineup is good, but there are levels to this.

Which team has the starting pitcher edge?

Winner: USA

The starting pitching matchup is Paul Skenes against Luis Severino. The names give away the advantage, but the magnitude of the advantage the USA has over the Dominican Republic is bigger than it might seem on paper because of how the pitchers have fared against the opponent.

Skenes has been absolutely dominant against the entire Dominican Republic roster, with the exception of Julio Rodriguez and Amed Rosario. Rodriguez is a great player, but he isn't who scares you in a lineup consisting of the likes of Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ketel Marte. As for Rosario, he's a bench player who is unlikely to face Skenes. If anyone can keep the Dominican lineup in check, it's Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner. Fortunately for the DR, Skenes is only expected to throw between 75 and 80 pitches.

Conversely, the USA lineup has outstanding numbers against Severino in a much larger sample size. They'd have an even better chance to do serious damage against Severino if they do what should've been done all tournament - start Gunnar Henderson. Whether Mark DeRosa will do that remains to be seen, but regardless, Skenes is a better pitcher than Severino, and the numbers these pitchers have against their respective opponents tip the scale even more in the USA's favor.

Which team has the bullpen edge?

Winner: USA

Statistics-wise in the WBC, the Dominican Republic has the advantage, as their relievers have allowed a total of one run in 22.2 innings of work. That run was surrendered by Abner Uribe, one of the best relievers in the game. This bullpen is better than its given credit for, but it still feels like the USA has the advantage.

USA's closer, Mason Miller, is the best reliever on the planet right now. USA's best set-up men - Griffin Jax, David Bednar and Garrett Whitlock - have combined to allow no runs in 6.2 innings with 11 strikeouts and no walks. The DR bullpen, having pitched better in this tournament, shouldn't be overlooked, but USA's best arms have been terrific, and those late-game arms are better than what the DR has to offer.

Which team has the managerial edge?

Winner: Dominican Republic

The managerial difference could not be more stark. On one side, it feels like Albert Pujols is pushing all the right buttons for the Dominican Republic. As mentioned above, the bullpen has been absurdly good the entire WBC, so clearly, Pujols is using guys when he should. Beyond the in-game decisions, though, the Dominican Republic seems to be having fun and playing freely. The opposite can be said about the USA.

It feels like the USA's play has only gotten sloppier as the tournament has progressed, and while that isn't Mark DeRosa's fault, he certainly hasn't helped. From appearing to not know what was at stake in their final pool play game against Italy to some very curious lineup decisions, mostly involving benching Gunnar Henderson on most nights, this has been far from a banner tournament for DeRosa.

At the end of the day, both of these managers are responsible for managing super teams, yet Pujols and the DR have looked much better than DeRosa and the USA. Ultimately, there's a reason why Pujols was a serious option to fill three different managerial vacancies this offseason. He didn't land a managerial job, but it feels like an offer could be coming his way sooner rather than later, especially after how he and his team have looked this tournament.

Final score prediction

Dominican Republic 7, USA 5

This game could go either way. The USA has the pitching advantage, while the DR has the better lineup and manager. What could be the decider, though, is Skenes' limitations.

As mentioned above, the right-hander is expected to throw between 75 and 80 pitches, a mark very shy of the 95-pitch limit for the semifinals. Skenes needed 60 pitches to get through four innings against a formidable Mexico lineup, but one that doesn't come close to the All-Star team the DR has. It feels like the best case scenario is Skenes finishing six innings, but even with how good he is, doing so on just 75-to-80 pitches against the DR lineup will be tough. In all likelihood, the USA will need 12-to-15 outs from its bullpen.

That's a lot to ask for, even with a good 'pen, and while the DR will be in the same boat, its offense is better than that of the USA. I trust the Dominicans to score against just about anybody not named Mason Miller, and the USA lineup hasn't performed to that level. Perhaps if the USA can put some crooked numbers on the board against Severino they can pull it out, but if the game is close when Skenes is done, it'll be tough for the Americans to pull this one out.

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