Hours before the AL and NL MVPs were set to be announced, BBWAA vice president Bob Nightengale made it pretty clear who's expected to win. Again, none of this is rocket science – we know which players are favored and which aren't – but the conflict of interest Nightengale exposed between his MLB Insider job and his secondary duty to the BBWAA was exposed to say the least.
I will eventually give it away, but first we have to discuss why this is even an issue. The BBWAA votes on awards every year. While there is (at times) drama surrounding the ceremony, typically we know the answers beforehand. It's not some mystery, as much as baseball fans may pretend to think as much. There's also no bias – not towards New York, Boston, Los Angeles or any media market – that goes into the announcement. But, Nightengale didn't help MLB's case when he essentially revealed the winners early. Let it play out, man!
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
So, who will win NL MVP and why?
There is no real argument against Shohei Ohtani winning yet another MVP award, his second with the Dodgers and fourth overall. Ohtani is a generational talent and has been awarded as such. Ohtani had 7.7 bWAR this season, and should be even better in 2026 if he is able to pitch over the course of a full season. We saw some glimpses of what he could bring to the Dodgers rotation and bullpen in the postseason.
Ohtani's main competition for the award was Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto. Schwarber is a primary DH, and doesn't offer much else in the field. His numbers also weren't as productive as Ohtani's over the course of a full season. The same can be said for Soto, who came on strong down the stretch while the Mets themselves were struggling. However, Soto's defense took a dip most of the season and his hitting statistics were, uh, lacking in the first half. This is a non-starter.
If Aaron Judge wins AL MVP, then so be it
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge will more than likely win his second-straight AL MVP because he deserves it. Yes, I am well aware that Cal Raleigh plays catcher and hit 60 home runs. In most seasons, he'd be the runaway favorite to win the MVP award. This isn't most seasons, though, and no one is performing like Judge.
FanGraphs gives catchers the benefit of the doubt when it comes to their defensive responsibilities. Even with that taken into account, Judge beat out Raleigh in fWAR. He was simply a better player than Raleigh in 2025, and it has little to do with the former playing in New York City.
bWAR is not a great measurement for catchers, but fWAR greatly rewards catchers for their work behind the plate.
— Mike Dro (@MikeDro_) November 13, 2025
Aaron Judge was a DH for 56 games mainly due to injury and took a massive penalty in fWAR because of it, yet still was a full win above Cal (10.1 to 9.1)
Even with… https://t.co/G9vcCOkh3r pic.twitter.com/0J2YI8nN6D
This will, of course, make Mariners feel as though the fix was in. Rather, Nightengale felt comfortable leaking the MVP results because he was certain of how the voting would go. He's entrenched in that community, and in MLB as a whole, and knows the deserved winners.
Sadly, the conspiracy ended before it even began.