The Phillies running it back puts them in danger of a trade deadline sale already

The bell tolls in the City of Brotherly Love — but not the Liberty Bell. The alarm bell. It's still too early to completely panic about the Philadelphia Phillies, but five straight losses and an 8-13 record has anxiety on the rise. Rob Thomson's seat is hotter than it's ever been. Change is on the horizon.

If the Phillies can't turn this season around on a dime, president Dave Dombrowski and the front office will be under immense external pressure. This fanbase does not take disappointment lightly. It could mean a change at manager. If things spiral further, however, it could also mean the vaunted trade deadline fire sale, which comes for every bad team eventually.

The Phillies ran it back — now what?

Hello darkness, my old friend...

Are any of us truly surprised by this Phillies skid? Last year's team won 96 games, so the "run it back" strategy was not completely unviable on paper. But Philadelphia lost an All-Star in Ranger Suárez and let Harrison Bader, their most productive midseason addition, walk. This is not the exact same group.

Some of the Phillies' struggles can be chalked up to bad luck. Jesús Luzardo has a 7.94 ERA and a 3.59 expected ERA. That's objectively hilarious, and an indictment of Philadelphia's porous defense. Cristopher Sánchez and the Phillies' gave up zero earned runs in their 3-1 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. Again, defense.

But the Phillies basically ran back a worse team. Andrew Painter isn't on Suárez's level yet. Justin Crawford's bat has translated well enough in center field, but he's a huge defensive downgrade from the Bader or even Johan Rojas class. Taijuan Walker is only a temporary plague, but Zack Wheeler has looked awfully hittable in his Minor League rehab starts. Expecting him to return at full-strength from a nerve injury in his shoulder — at 35 years old, no less — is probably wishful thinking.

The Phillies are a worse team, point blank. JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber both re-signed, but both are a year older. We know this core is running out of time. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott's offensive struggles are a surprise, but only mildly so. Bohm and Stott have almost never been truly dependable. Especially not in October. Both are due for positive regression, but the Phillies can only count on the "it can't stay this bad" strategy so much.

The Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline feels far away, but it's not. It's a little more than two months out. If the Phillies stay in this fourth- or fifth-place range in the division and don't make up meaningful ground in the Wild Card race, Dombrowski will need to make a few hard decisions.

What would a Phillies trade deadline fire sale look like?

If this season goes down the drain, fans can probably come to accept — even to embrace — a mini-teardown at the deadline. The Phillies have been "running it back" for years with diminishing returns. True, foundational change is long overdue, even if fans wouldn't see the returns until 2027 at the earliest. And that's assuming the Phillies can compete in free agency next winter.

That said, a fire sale probably does not go exactly how most Phillies fans dream it will.

Alec Bohm will leave as a free agent next winter, if he even lasts that long. Phillies fans have been clamoring for a Bohm trade since the beginning of time. Now would seem like the perfect time to bite the bullet.

Here's the rub: Bohm's value is basically zilch. He's a contact hitter who isn't making a ton of contact at the moment. He doesn't generate power and he historically performs quite poorly in high-leverage plate appearances. Moreover, he's a career-long negative defender at third base, so it's hard to imagine any team giving up real assets for Bohm.

That could push Bryson Stott to the forefront of trade talks, at least on the positional front. Stott is still under club control through 2027, but the Phillies need to start clearing the path for top prospect Aidan Miller. Stott's defense and base-running should keep other teams interested, even if he's an inconsistent weapon at the plate.

Adolis García, who inked a one-year contract in free agency, probably comes up in trade talks as well. Phillies fans have mostly celebrated García, who has improved his plate approach and provided a substantial defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos in right field. That said, the Phillies could dump García to a contender in need of outfield depth and test out the farm system — perhaps a Gabriel Rincones call-up? — or just give newcomer Felix Reyes a more permanent, full-time role over the second half of the campaign.

Pitching-wise, nobody is trading for Taijuan Walker. Philadelphia's other starters are all locked up beyond 2027, with the exception of Zack Wheeler. Could the Phillies trade Wheeler, especially if he's on a downward spiral post-injury? Yes. Would the Phillies actually trade their beloved ace at a low-point value-wise? Almost certainly not.

The majority of real movement probably comes from the Phillies' bullpen. Brad Keller, Jhoan Durán and Orion Kerkering are all signed through next season at least, but José Alvardo and Tim Mayza, both on expiring contracts, could draw interest from better teams in search of reliever depth.

None of this is guaranteed, of course. The Phillies are only five games below .500 with over 80 percent of the season left. Their pitching is better than it looks on paper right now and with Schwarber and Harper still swinging the lumber well, the lineup should come around — at least marginally — once the weather heats up and rust is shed.

The Phillies could end up in the postseason race and render much of what's laid out above moot. Maybe the Phillies even end up as buyers, which is typically more in line with how Dombrowski (and how this fanbase) operate. Just know the clock is ticking.

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