MLB free agency is as quiet as ever, with stars like Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman enjoying the holiday season without as much as a peep. The holidays aren't always this silent. In years past, big-name players have chosen a new destination in the middle of Christmas dinner. Front office executives have informed their players of a trade on New Year's Eve. It happens!
Yet, for Tucker in particular, there's been little-to-no chatter about his next home. Given he is the best player on the market, he's the most important domino to fall. But what would Tucker and the best free agents available say if they could?
The secrets behind a quiet MLB free agency
I should start by admitting that I know none of these players, nor their representatives. This story, as suggested, is merely a thought exercise in otherwise uncertain times. The real reason MLB free agency (as well as the trade market) is so quiet is because of the looming lockout no owner, executive or player will mention out loud. A potential work stoppage brings financial uncertainty and instability. So, it should come as no real surprise that the market is moving slowly, since owners and players don't know what to expect come next December.
A short-term contract is in Kyle Tucker's future
The longer Tucker stays on the market, the worst his prospects of a long-term contract get. Tucker knows this. Executives know this. Even Tucker's agent, Casey Close, surely knows this. All of that is why we shouldn't expect Tucker to sign anytime soon, unless he's chosen to alter his expectations.
What do I mean by that? Well, Tucker is such a productive player that he has some options. He could take a high-AAV, short-term contract with the hopes of reaching free agency again next winter. Heck, that short-term deal could even include a player option or two just in case he doesn't live up to expectations in a walk year. A one-plus-one or two-plus-one contract could make a lot of sense for a player who, in most years, would make $400 million in free agency. This is not most years for all the reasons listed above.
Tucker had 4.6 bWAR in a down season for the Cubs. Were he to re-sign with the Cubs for, say, a $50 million AAV over two years, or just over $40 million for three years, why should either side say no? There are a litany of other teams that would be interested in this type of deal as well, including the Blue Jays and Dodgers.
Cody Bellinger has a bigger market than Kyle Tucker
Yes, really! If you were reading the text above, perhaps this won't come as a surprise to you. Tucker's market is there, surely, but he's struggling to receive the contract he once expected, which was around $400 million on a long-term commitment.
As unpredictable as Bellinger has been over the course of his career, he's fugured something out with the Yankees, and is one of the few players who can compete in New York without batting an eye. Bellinger is expected to sign a deal somewhere around the $200 million marker. That's half the money contenders are being asked to invest in Tucker, but is Bellinger half the player?
Bellinger may not be the MVP he once was, but he has the back-to-back AL MVP, Aaron Judge, begging the Yankees front office to bring him back. That has to mean something.
Scott Boras has to change his strategy for Alex Bregman
As always, Scott Boras likes to wait until late in the winter before advising his clients to sign on the dotted line. Under normal circumstances, he'd be wise to do so again. But this market isn't most markets, and the climate is ice cold. The longer Boras waits this time around, the more likely it is that several clients of his – including Alex Bregman – are forced to sign short-term deals and test free agency again in the near future.
Bregman is 31 years old, and has been linked to all of the Blue Jays, Cubs, Red Sox and Diamondbacks. Surely there are more teams in the mix, but the point remains that the holidays have gone by, and he is no closer to picking his next team.
This is Bregman's final shot at securing the long-term deal of his dreams. If he signed another short-term contract, he'll reach free agency again in his mid-30's, which will significantly hurt his value no matter what statistics he puts up. Coming off a 3.5 bWAR season in just 114 games, Bregman ought to cash in whenever the offer comes.
Why Framber Valdez and the starting pitcher market won't be impacted
There haven't been many trades this winter, but the more impactful ones have involved starting pitchers. The most alarming deal involved the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays. Mike Elias' front office acquired Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz – a back-of-the-rotation starter – for four coveted prospects. This is not to criticize Elias, as that's just the cost of doing business in this trade market for a controllable starting pitcher.
Thus, many of the starting pitchers available for trade this winter have a similar asking price. Want Tarik Skubal or Freddy Peralta? Get ready to pay up. Interested in Edward Cabrera? He still has several years left on his contract, good luck with that.
So, as costly as Dylan Cease was for the Toronto Blue Jays, or Framber Valdez will prove to be for whichever contender eventually signs him, it's worth the price of admission if it allows front offices to keep their farm systems in tact. Valdez, who had a 3.66 ERA last season and is expected to make between $150 million and $170 million, remains available.
How Tarik Skubal is impacting the current market
Skubal is impacting the market in several ways, the first of which we mentioned above. Any team hoping to land Skubal better be willing to part with half their farm system. If not, they'd be better off waiting until the trade deadline or next winter.
Second, Skubal and his fellow 2026-27 free agents have a major role to play a year ahead of time. It's only natural for general managers and executives to look ahead a year. If, for example, the Los Angeles Dodgers believe they have a good chance to sign Skubal next winter, then why would they waste money on a long-term ace this offseason? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
Skubal's contract status also means a whole heck of a lot in Detroit. The Tigers must decide whether they want to trade Skubal now, or keep him around for one more guaranteed season and go all-in on 2026. That doesn't sound like a strategy Scott Harris can get behind.
So far this winter, the vast majority of the Tigers free-agent signings have been bullpen upgrades, including Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen. If Harris has hinted at Skubal's future with his decision-making, it's unbeknownst to us.