NBA Mock Draft: 3 lottery teams who become instant contenders with Ace Bailey

Few prospects have been more polarizing this season than Rutgers' Ace Bailey. The 6-foot-10 freshman, a five-star recruit once cited as Cooper Flagg's biggest challenger, is undeniably talented. The question is, does all that talent translate to winning basketball?

The answer to that question has been decidedly mixed so far. Rutgers is 3-4 in conference play and 12th place in a competitive Big Ten. For a team with two top freshmen in Bailey and Dylan Harper, the No. 2 NBA Draft prospect here at FanSided, the results just aren't on par with expectations.

That is not all Bailey's fault, of course. The Scarlet Knights' supporting cast leaves much to be desired. But, Bailey has not been quite as dominant as fans maybe hoped. He is an incredible shot-maker, with a highlight reel to challenge anybody in college basketball. The issues are more nuanced, as Bailey struggles to generate quality looks and does not create much for teammates.

On the season, the 18-year-old is averaging 19.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.0 assist on .462/.367/.606 splits. He doesn't pass often enough and he settles for contested step-backs more than anybody should, but at the same time, he's scoring on reasonable efficiency and hitting shots that only a select few human beings can pull off. There is a special blend of size, athleticism, and touch working in Bailey's favor.

These lottery teams would be immediate winners if Bailey falls into their lap.

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3. New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans are in the middle of a truly miserable season, but things are looking up... somewhat. Zion Williamson is back and he looks up to speed, throwing down thunderous slams and breaking out a new goatee tailor-made to curry favor with the basketball gods. There's no telling what the future holds in New Orleans, but any team with Williamson, Dejounte Murray, and (for now) Brandon Ingram is ostensibly planning to contend at some point.

Right now, a Williamson trade feels unlikely. The Pelicans probably view this season as a micro-tank — bottom out, get a shot at Cooper Flagg, then rebound in 2025-26. Ace Bailey is not Cooper Flagg, but he's still a great talent to incorporate in New Orleans' rotation.

The core concern with Bailey as a prospect is his lack of playmaking skill. He is either looking to get to his spots for a pull-up jumper or working off the ball, stepping confidently into spot-up 3s and cutting backdoor for easy finishes. He is not an on-ball engine, which is what most tanking bottom-dwellers need. Not the Pelicans, though. Bailey will look best on a team where he's not overextended. The Pelicans can view Bailey as a spacer next to Williamson and Murray, with Bailey free to attack errant closeouts and get to his spots as defenses collapse on New Orleans' star creators.

If the defense comes along, as it should, Bailey's help-side rim protection and general versatility on the wing should help a Pelicans team built to handle various matchups and personnel groups on that end. Bailey goes a long way toward reestablishing the Pels as a real team.

2. Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers are flirting with a proper tank for the first time since Joel Embiid's breakout. Currently nine games below .500 and without Embiid for the next seven days at least due to another injury setback, the Sixers are dangerously close to the bottom of the lottery. Their first-round pick is top-six protected, which means there's incentive for Philadelphia to get bad and stay bad if the playoffs are out of reach.

That said, a team with Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey does plan on winning eventually. It's too early to scrap the whole experiment, and Daryl Morey tends to see his projects through to their logical conclusion. If Philadelphia takes the New Orleans route of a micro-tank before a rebound in 2025-26, Ace Bailey would help quite a bit.

It's the same deal. The Sixers don't need Ace Bailey to come in and carry the offense. He can focus on spot 3s, off-ball movement, and two-man actions with Embiid, whose gravity ought to generate plenty of clean looks for Bailey. There is definite star upside here, as Bailey can get to his shot pretty much anywhere, even with rudimentary handles. Early in his career, however, Bailey would benefit from the infrastructure in place with Philadelphia. The Sixers, meanwhile, benefit from Bailey's long-term upside. He is a potential bridge to the non-Embiid future.

1. Miami Heat

Don't look now, but the Miami Heat are slipping in the standings and the Jimmy Butler situation appears nowhere close to a resolution. Tyler Herro has made an unexpected star leap, but Bam Adebayo has inexplicably regressed and Butler is actively sandbagging. The Heat are a well-coached group with legitimate talent, but this season feels increasingly lost.

Let's say the Heat bottom out, get lucky in the lottery, and find their way to Ace Bailey. There just isn't a better organization to sharpen your skill set and develop with. Miami tends to get the most out of disparate parts. Erik Spoelstra will find ways to milk Bailey's atypical shot chart for all its worth. Meanwhile, Miami's intense focus on defensive details and conditioning would profoundly benefit Bailey in his nascent years.

The whole 'Heat Culture' mantra feels a bit empty with Butler making a spectacle of things, but Miami's organization holds itself to a certain standard. Once Butler is out the door, whether it's this week or next summer, things can stabilize and Spoelstra will be able to get his ducks in a row. Herro is legitimately fantastic right now, playing as well as any primary guard in the East. Adebayo is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Bailey fits right in as an off-ball finisher and burgeoning shot-maker who could ascend quickly in the Heat organization.