Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Duke, the No. 1 seed, faces a gauntlet of elite defenses in the NCAA Tournament that could define Carlos Boozer's NBA Draft stock.
- Boozer must navigate experienced coaches and athletic frontcourts that have historically given him trouble on the block and perimeter.
- Performance against these challenges will determine if he solidifies his status as a true No. 1 pick candidate in the eyes of skeptics.
Cameron Boozer is the runaway favorite to take home the Wooden Award after a historically dominant freshman season. He's the best player on the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, with a very real chance to accomplish something Cooper Flagg, Zion Williamson and other recent Duke standouts could not.
That said, a lot of NBA Draft folks remain unconvinced that Boozer is a true No. 1 pick candidate. BYU's AJ Dybantsa and Kansas' Darryn Peterson offer a bit more pizzazz on tape, with strong numbers of their own. Boozer's side of the bracket is not short on potential roadblocks, but those roadblocks are also opportunities to win over skeptics by tackling challenges. So here are where Boozer's biggest tests could arise:
Michigan State (No. 3 seed)
Michigan State ranks top-25 in offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom, placing the Spartans (historically) among the select group of teams with the right metrics to win a championship. Tom Izzo teams guard. That is a fact of life. The Spartans rank 20th in the nation in block percentage, despite no real individual standout. It's a collective effort, with several plus athletes on the perimeter and an experienced interior enforcer in Carson Cooper.
There isn't a specific one-on-one matchup here that should overly scare Boozer, but the overall experience — Jeremy Fears flying around the perimeter like a mosquito, Cooper and fellow senior Jaxon Kohler walling off the paint, Coen Carr as a bomb constantly threatening to detonate — could become a bit overwhelming if Michigan State brings its A-game.
This is a potential Elite Eight matchup, meaning the Spartans would be riding high off a Sweet 16 win over UConn if the bracket stays chalk. Izzo is an imperfect coach; some would even argue he's past his prime. But you know the man can draw up a game plan to put Boozer in a tough spot. It's up to the 18-year-old to rise above it and perform, in that case.
St. John's (No. 5 seed)
It's hard to fully trust St. John's to score enough, especially against a Duke defense that is elite in its own right. But the Big East champs get after it each and every night; it's a Rick Pitino team after all. The ringleaders on defense are Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, two extremely athletic upperclassmen who have formed an impressive defensive tandem this season.
Ejiofor (7.4 BLK%, 2.2 STL%) and Mitchell (2.6 BLK%, 2.6 STL%) both specialize in creating chaos. Ejiofor is one of the few college bigs who can truly match Boozer physically: he's a 6-foot-9, 240-pound tank with a bit more length and a lot more bounce. Ejiofor can hold his ground in the post, but he can also mirror Boozer on the perimeter and erase ill-timed shot attempts at the rim, with four years of seasoning and discipline.
Mitchell is a bit too skinny to lock up Boozer one-on-one, but with Ejiofor (presumably) drawing the primary assignment, Mitchell becomes an especially dangerous help-side floater. He's one of the most explosive leapers in college basketball, with a second jump just as dangerous as the first. The Johnnies can collapse the floor around Boozer quickly and do a lot to muck up his field of vision around the basket.
It's not just the frontcourt guys, either. St. John's likes to swarm, likes to turn the ball over, and would undoubtedly take a matchup with the nation's best player very, very personally.
Kansas (No. 4 seed)
Duke played Kansas all the way back in November. The Blue Devils won 78-66 and Boozer led the team in points (18), rebounds (11) and assists (5), which became characteristic of his entire season. But he also shot 7-of-17 from the field (6-of-13 on 2s). That is hardly awful, and Boozer's early-season finishing struggles were quickly remedied later on. Still, this was a game in which Boozer's scant growing pains were on full display.
Kansas is KenPom's No. 10-ranked team in defensive efficiency. Flory Bidunga in particular poses matchup issues for Boozer. Just like Ugonna Onyenso of Virgina, who gave Boozer fits in the ACC title game, Bidunga is a long, rangy center who can smother Boozer on drives and get off the ground quickly for contests at the rim. If there's one critcism of Boozer, it's that he's ground-bound, reliant almost entirely on strength, craft and touch.
Boozer has put together the most all-around dominant offensive campaign in recent history, so let's not pretend like there are chronic issues in need of fixing. But in matchups like these, we have seen him look at least mortal. If Bidunga can stay disciplined — avoid biting on pump fakes or reaching on drives — his elite vertical athleticism can really trouble Boozer inside.
Freshman Bryson Tiller will also get plenty of reps on Boozer. I'd expect the Jayhawks to tag-team their young bigs and throw a variety of looks at Boozer in an attempt to disrupt his rhyhtm. Now, will Kansas get to the Sweet 16 with their offense and all the questions swirling around Darryn Peterson? That remains to be seen. If we get a rematch, though, Kansas is built to give Duke a run for its money.
Florida (No. 1 seed)
Florida is sixth in defensive efficiency at KenPom, with the right collection of pieces to potentially combat Boozer. Duke beat the Gators 67-66 earlier in the year, with Boozer scoring 29 points on 10-of-21 shooting (7-of-12 on 2s). Not exactly held in check. That said, Flordia has found a higher gear in the months since Dec. 2.
Again, in theory, the best way to challenge Boozer is size and athleticism on the interior. Alex Condon probably draws the primary matchup. While his lighter frame could pose issues when Boozer decides to drop his shoulder and bulldoze to the rim, Condon's length and timing are elite. He's agile enough to stick with Boozer on the perimeter and match him stride-for-stride on drives.
Florida also has another athletic 7-footer, with more of an enforcer's mindset, in Rueben Chinyelu, who will clean up the glass and prevent Boozer from feasting on easy putbacks — in addition to straight-up challenges at the rim. Thomas Haugh, the Gators' 6-foot-9 junior and a potential lottery pick, can probably hang with Boozer a bit. Even 7-foot-1 senior Micah Handlogten has the movement skills to potentially frustrate Boozer in spurts off the bench.
The Gators are always in lockstep on both ends. Todd Golden is a great coach and he has the personnel to blitz Boozer on every possession. This would be a Final Four matchup against the reigning champs. It's hard to imagine a brighter spotlight in which Boozer can make (or break) his No. 1 pick candidacy.
Houston (No. 2 seed)
Another potential Final Four matchup for Duke: and probably the single greatest challenge Boozer could face on the NCAA Tournament stage. Kelvin Sampson is the ultimate fundamentals coach; his teams always nail the details, and that shows up most frequently on defense. Houston has very few weak links.
If there was a single prospect-vs-prospect matchup worth willing into existence, it's probably Cam Boozer vs. Joseph Tugler. The Houston junior contributes only marginally on offense, but he's arguably the best defender in college basketball: a 6-foot-7, 230-pound tank with an comical 7-foot-6 wingspan and incredible instincts (8.2 BLK%, 3.6 STL%).
Tugler can match Boozer blow-for-blow. His aggression never wanes; if there's any fault Boozer can exploit, it's that Tugler will overextend himself on occasion. But more often than not, Tugler is impossible to shake. If he's not in Boozer's shirt, he'll be lurking in the shadows hoping to pounce on a bad pass or swoop in for a block.
Houston also has fellow five-star recruit and potential top-20 pick Chris Cenac Jr., a long, athletic forward-center type whose defensive highs are very high (if a little too sporadic). Zai Harwell can provide physicality in spot minutes off the bench. Emanuel Sharp is an extremely gutsy, shocking strong 6-foot-3 guard who can take a few shots at Boozer. Kingston Flemings and Milos Uzan will capitalize on errant passes toward the perimeter.
Odds are we never get this specific matchup in the Final Four. But it's what I am predicting, and it probably offers Boozer his greatest mountain to climb — at least so far.