5 boom-or-bust prospects who can shake up the 2026 NBA Draft

Welcome to Upside and Motor, a weekly NBA Draft column dedicated to analyzing the next wave of basketball stars — from blue-blood sensations to those flying under the radar.

With a new college basketball season right around the corner, it's time to gear up for yet another NBA Draft cycle. The 2025 class was rife with future stars, and 2026 should be no different. If anything, this is an even stronger crop of talent. So much is unsettled at this point in time, so we can't speak in absolutes. But in terms of upside near the top of the board, this could be the strongest draft class of the last decade, depending on how you felt about the non-Wemby prospects in 2023.

The big three names to watch are Darryn Peterson (Kansas), AJ Dybantsa (BYU) and Cam Boozer (Duke). Slice 'em and dice 'em however you choose, the order doesn't really matter at this stage. Those are three potentially generational players who will leave NBA scouts fawning over lottery odds for the next 10 months.

Other noteworthy names, such as Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville), Nate Ament (Tennessee) and Jayden Quaintance (Kentucky), will also dominate the top of early-season draft boards. But every season, without fail, there are the prospects we don't see coming — or those who simply outperform expectations to an extent once thought implausible, if not impossible. Nobody viewed Jeremiah Fears as a one-and-done prospect a year ago, much less a top-seven pick.

Here are five prospects of varying status who have the potential to soar far above preseason expectations (or fall short of them, by virtue of their volatile nature).

Boogie Fland, guard, Florida

Boogie Fland spent a good chunk of his freshman season at Arkansas recovering from a broken hand, which put his NBA Draft stock on ice. He returned for March Madness but was only lightly involved in the Razorbacks' Sweet 16 run. Now he's taking his talents to South Beach — er, Gainseville — as a sophomore, hoping to fill Walter Clayton's shoes in the defending champ's backcourt.

We absolutely should not hold Fland up to the Clayton standard, primarily because he is a very different player. Whereas Clayton spent more time off the ball, deliriously burying movement 3s and wrecking defenses with assassin-like shotmaking, Fland is more of your standard "run the show" point guard. He's poised in the pick-and-roll, with a healthy 30.6 percent assist rate and 10.4 percent turnover rate last season.

There was a time early on last season, before the competition levels spiked and injuries took hold, when Fland was viewed as a one-and-done, lottery-level talent in the Darius Garland vein. He's never going to be a great defender, but guards who can snake their way through screens, control the tempo of the offense and bury pull-up 3s are hot commodities in the modern game.

Fland can still do all that, and he's in a position to thrive in a significant role for one of the best teams in college basketball. Where he really needs to take a leap, however, is efficiency — primarily inside the arc. Fland just lacks the strength and burst to finish at the rim effectively, or at least he did as a freshman. The frame isn't going to fill out a ton, but if Fland can get to the rim more frequently and find ways to compensate with craft and touch, it will balance his scoring profile and launch him into the upper echelon of 2026 guard prospects.

Dailyn Swain, wing, Texas

Dailyn Swain came on strong as a sophomore at Xavier, and then like so many others, he took to the transfer portal in pursuit of a bigger paycheck and a better ecosystem. Oh, and he followed his head coach, Sean Miller, who received new digs and a nice bump in status after the Musketeers' successful 2024-25 campaign.

Swain showcased major improvement in year two and should factor heavily into the Longhorns' plans as a junior. He looks the part of an NBA wing on the court, with good size and plus-plus athleticism. The way Swain cuts to the rim on straight-line drives is special, and it gives him a strong baseline to develop as a scorer. What's missing — and what could launch into into a new stratum of prospects — is his jump shot.

The 6-foot-7 wing hit 25.0 percent of his 3s on only 0.8 attempts per game last season. Those are abysmal numbers, but it was a tick in the right direction after hitting just 15.4 percent of 3s as a freshman. Swain might never become a knockdown shooter, but if he can touch even 30 percent on real volume, the whole floor will open up. He's not the most refined ball-handler, but Swain can create advantages with his first step and deliver nice passes on the move. If he gets to the point where defenders aren't just packing the paint and anticipating a drive, the slashing and playmaking should flourish even more.

He's an active defender (1.6 steals) and he will face no shortage of quality competition in the SEC. Ironically, Xavier knocked Texas out of the NCAA Tournament in March, which cemented both Swain and his coach as big fish in the offseason pond. Most projections still slate the 20-year-old as a second-round talent, but the stage is set for a swift ascent if all the pieces come together.

Neoklis Avdalas, wing, Virginia Tech

Greek wing Neoklis Avdalas was on draft radars this summer, but decided to forgo the 2025 class in favor of Virgina Tech. It's a truly strange choice of school and a tremendous recruiting victory for the Hokies. ACC competition was hit or miss last season, but Avdalas will face plenty of marquee opponents (and 2026 draft peers) as he takes on a fulsome workload in Blacksburg.

Avdalas has a skill set tailor-made to ooh and aah NBA scouts. He's a 6-foot-8 wing with creative handles, a prolific dribble-drive game and advanced passing chops. Wing creators are all the rage in today's game, and Avdalas has a real knack for getting into the teeth of the defense and making things happen for teammates. He can whip sharp connective passes in the flow of the offense or function as the head of the snake, deploying spin moves and stutter steps to create driving angles and get to his spots even without great burst.

He will need to work on strength development, but more importantly, Avdalas is yet another NBA wannabe who needs to iron out his jump shot. He hit 40.7 percent of his 3s in 18 games with Peristeri in the Greek league last season, but the overall numbers are much worse. Holistically across various teams and competitions, Avdalas hit 32.4 percent of catch-and-shoot 3s and 29.9 percent off the dribble. His shot is far from broken and he displays promising touch at the rim, but a middling free throw percentage is proof that he has a lot of work to do.

Defense is also going to be a problem for Avdalas, especially against premium ACC athletes. There is a huge appetite for wings with his blend of ball-handling craft and passing flair, but if Avdalas is bricking 3s and getting jerked around on defense, he will struggle to stand out in a crowded field — especially on a team that won't command national attention by default.

Dame Sarr, wing, Duke

Italian wing Dame Sarr spent last season with FC Barcelona, a top club in Europe, where he received minimal playing time. Still, he was floating around draft boards and loosely in the mix for a late first-round or early second-round pick. Instead of joining the big leagues, however, he withdrew his name from the draft and committed to Duke, where he hopes to improve his stock amidst limited opportunities.

Sheer talent alone will put Duke back at the top of college basketball standings. There isn't another clear threat in the ACC, and we know Jon Scheyer is capable of spotlighting several draft-worthy prospects at once. The Blue Devils' entire starting five was drafted this summer, with all three freshmen in the top 10. That said, Sarr is a bit rawer than Duke's 2025 standouts, and he figures to occupy a peripheral role next to more established talents like Boozer and Nikolas Khamenia (not to mention Duke's upperclassmen).

That puts Sarr squarely in the "boom or bust" category, as this season could go in a number of directions. He might stand out early and climb the ladder, with genuine lottery upside. Or he might struggle with efficiency and end up buried on the depth chart.

We will all be watching Duke, of course, so it won't be hard for Sarr to pop if he puts in the work. A point guard growing up, Sarr flourishes with his speed and passing out in transition. Points are a bit harder to come by in the halfcourt, however, as Sarr's 3-point track record is scattershot. Most worrisome are his free throw numbers, which sit in the gutter. Sarr needs to get stronger and limit turnovers, but most of all, he'll need to prove that he can space the floor and play effectively off of Duke's stars. With a strong first step, plenty of defensive range and valuable creativity as a passer, Sarr has the chance to really flourish at Duke. But it will require meaningful growth and a hard-fought battle for relevance on college basketball's deepest team.

Caleb Wilson, wing, North Carolina

North Carolina's disappointing 2024-25 campaign is still fresh on the mind. Now the whole roster has been turned over, with R.J. Davis and other seniors graduating, while top freshmen Drake Powell and Ian Jackson both left to pursue other opportunities (Powell was a first-round pick to the Nets, Jackson transferred to St. John's).

Hubert Davis has time and time again squandered elite incoming freshmen, which puts Caleb Wilson, a projected lottery pick, in a tough position. There are worrisome parallels between Wilson and the aforementioned Powell, whose production and development at UNC left much to be desired. He still wound up as a first-round pick, but that was in spite of his tenure at Chapel Hill, not because of it.

Wilson is an outlier athlete at 6-foot-9. He butters his bread on the defensive end, switching effortlessly all over the perimeter and disrupting passing lanes with his off-ball activity. He can sink into the paint for a weak-side block, blow up passing lanes out of the blue or just sit in his stance and mirror ball-handlers with a gaping wingspan and impressive agility. Defense alone should cement Wilson on draft boards.

The swing factor will be how much Wilson is able to showcase offensively. He is the only major freshman on UNC's roster and thus should inherit a significant role, but Wilson is a spotty 3-point shooter with rudimentary handles. He fights on the offensive glass and vacuums up easy buckets in transition, but if he can't hit 3s and showcase growth as a driver and a connective passer, it will be difficult for Wilson to elevate his stock in NBA circles.

North Carolina kept Powell on a tight leash last season as he battled through similar shortcomings. Rather than putting Wilson in a box, the Tar Heels need to make a concerted effort to explore the full breadth of his skill set — both to raise their ceiling as a team and to help Wilson maximize his development. Wilson is more than talented enough to end up as a top-10 pick next June. He just needs the right guidance.

Who holds the belt right now? A mini-2026 NBA mock draft

Once the NBA and college basketball seasons pick up steam, these mini-mock drafts will become a weekly Upside and Motor staple, in addition to our more expansive, two-round monthly mock drafts here at FanSided.

This is a loaded lottery class with a handful of future history book residents at the top. As always, we determined the order via Tankathon simulation.