UNC fans should already fear Hubert Davis effect on Caleb Wilson

Last season was a slog for the North Carolina Tar Heels. The team failed to meet expectations at almost every point. Hubert Davis recruited plenty of talented players, but how it all came together on the court left much to be desired. A fourth-place finish and a first round NCAA Tournament exit — when many thought their résumé did not actually deserve a spot in March Madness — is not what UNC fans are used to.

There is renewed optimism heading into 2025. Davis lost several key pieces to the NBA and the transfer portal, with Ian Jackson's departure for St. John's proving especially painful. But this is a solid roster with more than enough talent to climb back up the ACC standings.

At the center of it all is five-star recruit Caleb Wilson, a widely projected lottery pick with elite physical tools on the wing. Wilson has a chance to be UNC's first signature NBA prospect in a hot minute, but a lot is riding on how effectively Hubert Davis deploys him. The 19-year-old is not without his shortcomings and it's hard not to focus on the parallels to another five-star freshman from last season, Drake Powell.

Caleb Wilson-Drake Powell parallels are enough to spook North Carolina fans

Powell arrived in Chapel Hill as a projected lottery pick and a highly anticipated recruit on the wing. Like Wilson, he was an athletic wing with outlier physical tools and a reputation for excellent defense. And, like Wilson, there were questions about how exactly Powell's skill set would translate to a featured role on offense.

Rather than embracing Powell's strengths and mitigating his weaknesses, Hubert Davis simply did not deploy him in a featured role. Powell finished eighth in usage rate on UNC's roster last season, used on fewer than 16 percent of possessions, per KenPom. That qualified him for a "limited role."

When asked about the transition from college to the pros at the Combine, Powell — eventually the 22nd overall pick to the Brooklyn Nets, despite a disappointing stint at UNC — expressed his dissatisfaction with how he was (or wasn't) used with the Tar Heels.

"I feel like I’m the same two-way player that I was coming into college," he said. "Obviously I don’t think I was able to showcase that at UNC.“

Hubert Davis can't fall into the same trap with Caleb Wilson

Powell was not "ready" for a huge offensive role at UNC, but Hubert Davis' job is to develop talent. It's unfair to compare Powell to Cooper Flagg at Duke, but Flagg arrived in Durham known mostly as an off-ball finisher and an offensive connector. Jon Scheyer immediately funnelled ball-handling reps his way and forced Flagg to fight throw growing pains as an offensive focal point. It wound up benefitting him profoundly, as Flagg won the Wooden Award and emerged as a generationally dominant college freshman.

That was never in the cards for Powell, of course, but letting him develop as a slasher and off-ball scorer through trial by fire would have be the optimal course of action. Powell is a special athlete with plenty of offensive potential beyond what we saw at UNC. The hope is that he gets to show more aspects of his game in Brooklyn.

Caleb Wilson is further along than Powell, but many of the same questions loom around his offensive skill set. He can drive and finish with aplomb against high school competition, but the natural athletic advantages that have fueled Wilson's rise will be less pronounced in college. He will need to develop as a shooter and decision-maker with the rock.

UNC should let Wilson explore his isolation scoring and playmaking, just to see what's there, but Hubert Davis' history suggests that he will take the more "cautious" approach — i.e., he might just stuff Wilson in the corner and force him to impact winning along the margins.

That won't be good for Wilson's NBA stock nor for UNC's upside in a competitive conference. So yeah, Davis needs to be careful about falling into a familiar trap here.