We generally enter each NBA season with the same handful of "viable" MVP candidates. It's been a while since we weren't more or less picking between Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with Luka Dončić and Jayson Tatum in the "up next" category.
Embiid's MVP days are probably in the rearview mirror. It's unfortunate, but how can you look at what's happening and come to any other conclusion? Tatum, meanwhile, will leave his MVP bid on hold until at least 2027 as he works his way back from an Achilles injury.
If the top-four finalists for the 2026 MVP award are Jokić, Antetokounmpo, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dončić, not a soul would be surprised. But we always need to account for the unexpected in the NBA. There was a time when the idea of Jokić winning multiple MVPs was an impossibility. When it felt like Embiid might never be healthy enough, or Giannis might never put all the pieces together. SGA's path to basketball immortality wasn't exactly straightforward and predictable either.
We've seen plenty of outlier MVPs across the broader history of the NBA. The expected candidates almost never begin their journey as the expected candidate, and every now and then, we get an MVP completely out of left field.
In this article, we will dig behind the obvious MVP candidates — and beyond the most logical next men up — to pinpoint five NBA stars who could shock the world and bend the course of NBA history in their favor during the 2025-26 campaign.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks put together one of the best offseasons in the NBA under new GM Onsi Saleh. From the Kristaps Porziņģis trade to the Nickeil Alexander-Walker signing and that absolute draft night heist of the Pelicans, Atlanta has quietly built up a competitive roster while the East crumbles around them.
With Boston and Indiana taking gaps years, the conference is wide open. Cleveland and New York aren't going anywhere, but neither of those teams profiles as an unbeatable juggernaut. If ever there was a time for Atlanta to break through, this is the year. The deck is stacked in their favor, and this is easily the best roster — on paper — since Trae Young's arrival.
It would take a Herculean effort from Young to win the MVP award. He has a complicated reputation in league circles; not everyone respects his style of play or acknowledges to profound influence he exerts on offense. And yet, Young is capable of stuffing the box score at an NBA level. He's a lock to average 20-plus points and 10-plus assists. If he can boost his efficiency while making the most of a roster that's perfectly attuned to his playmaking wizardry — and if the Hawks win a bunch of games — folks will begin to take notice.
Defense will always be the knock on Young, but it's not like MVP voters were prioritizing defense when the likes of Stephen Curry or Nikola Jokić took the crown (not that Young is even on their level, although he did quietly make meaningful strides last season).
Young's involvement in the Hawks' offense is all-encompassing. In a league that is increasingly focused on spreading the wealth, Young basically has a hand in everything the Hawks run when he's on the floor. He's a pick-and-roll savant, a transition kickstarter, a deadeye pull-up shooter. He gets to the rim, delivers ropes to open shooters on the perimeter, and is always aware of where his rim-running big is in relation to the basket. Young's has the usage of an MVP candidate. The Hawks don't go anywhere without him. If Atlanta starts sniffing around a top-3 seed in the East, I'd imagine voters take an interest in what the Oklahoma product is cooking.
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Y'all remember how good Devin Booker was during the Phoenix Suns' NBA Finals run a few years ago? Phoenix has spent the last two seasons wandering aimlessly through the failed Kevin Durant-Bradley Beal experiment, and Booker's production, while still excellent, seemed to suffer in an offense that just was not functioning with the necessary cohesion. Last season was also Booker's worst defensive effort to date. It's hard not to blame that at least partially on the dire state of the Suns' collective. When it all feels futile, it's impossible to put your best foot forward.
Phoenix isn't necessarily moving in the right direction, but a reset was desperately needed. It's hard to picture the Suns as a contender with Jalen Green and Mark Williams taking on outsized roles, but then again, there was a time when we thought of Booker as a genuine 1A superstar — not second fiddle to an aging Kevin Durant in the NBA's most imbalanced and disconnected lineup.
Booker still has what it takes to put up a special, special individual season. Phoenix is putting all its eggs in his basket. Through all the dysfunction, the Suns remained committed to Booker and Booker remained committed to the Suns. That is an organization dedicated to sinking or swimming with the now decade-long face of their franchise.
We can expect Booker's usage to spike to career-high levels this season. He essentially ran point last season, but now Booker will be setting the table on almost every possession. Phoenix gave him an excellent screen-setter and rim-runner to play off of in Williams, with Khaman Maluach up and coming in a similar archetype. Green is a shot-hunter by nature, but he will be hunting those shots off of Booker's creation, not vice versa.
The Suns should at least defend at a passable level this season. This is a younger, more agile lineup, with Dillon Brooks providing a necessary culture-builder and tone-setter. Maybe it all goes south anyways, as Phoenix's front office has become the hapless mouthpiece for Mat Ishbia's nonsensical vision of NBA contention. But there is a world in which Phoenix comes into next season with a renewed sense of purpose and a more youthful energy. If Phoenix's years of turmoil means we get vintage D-Book, maybe it was all worth it.
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Zion Williamson has precisely one (1) season with 65 games played, which is the new league-mandated minimum for awards voting. In reality, he probably needs 70-plus to get on the same level as a healthy Jokić, Giannis or SGA, all of whom are due for monster seasons. Can we reasonably expect his fortunes to change this late in his career? He's only 25, but it's been six years of constant setbacks. At a certain point, one's fate becomes sealed.
That said... when healthy, Zion remains one of the absolute most dominant offensive forces in the NBA. He defies physics as well as conventional wisdom. Normally, a 6-foot-6 "forward" who can't shoot is a death sentence, especially when Zion isn't exactly known for his defensive intensity. But there simply is not a single athlete like Williamson. In a league full of anomalies, Williamson is perhaps the most extreme. His blend of strength, quickness and explosiveness is difficult to process in real time. The way he cuts through space and leverages his unique physical gifts is singular. Truly unmatched.
Williamson is thus a walking paint touch. He can get to the rim at will, where he's among the very best finishers in the sport. He has also developed into a nifty facilitator. The New Orleans Pelicans' odd roster construction, which feels out of step with Williamson as a centerpiece, may mitigate that element of his game, but New Orleans is typically at its best when Zion is attacking from the top of the key like a bull in a china shop. He can collapse the defense, survey the floor around him, and either cruise to the rim for a strong-man finish or dish to open shooters along the perimeter.
I'll admit, it's difficult to envision the Pelicans staying healthy and competitive enough for Zion to earnestly contend for the MVP award. Beyond his own health, Dejounte Murray is coming back from major knee surgery, lottery pick Derik Queen is already hurt to begin the season, and this roster can never seem to put together an extended stretch of uninterrupted stability. It would be fitting for a team from New Orleans to be cursed, and that's often what it feels like.
That said, when scouring the league for players with the talent to actually mount a surprise MVP run, Zion certainly fits the bill. There's a reason he was the runaway consensus pick at No. 1; he was a historically dominant freshman at Duke and, for a brief moment, a historically dominant rookie.
When Williamson is playing carefree, healthy basketball, he's one of the most dazzling and productive stars in the league. He's a top-percentile iso scorer, with the playmaking facilities and off-ball finishing chops to touch every aspect of the game on that end of the floor. If he can commit to playing hard on defense and maxing out his athleticism on both ends? Man, Pelicans fans deserve it. It would be quite a show.
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets are probably the No. 1 threat to OKC's reign atop the Western Conference standings. It's not like the Thunder are going anywhere, but after 52 wins and a No. 2 seed finish last season, the Rockets essentially swapped Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks for Kevin Durant. That'll do.
It's hard to project anything with certainty in the rough and tumble Western Conference, but the Rockets are going to win a ton of games next season. They've struck the perfect balance between established veteran leaders and promising up-and-comers. Alperen Şengün has a case to be on this list, but the Rockets youngster on the highest trajectory right now is Amen Thompson, the third overall pick in the 2023 draft.
Thompson burst onto the scene last season, elevating his profile across the board in just his second NBA season. We talk about Zion as an outlier athlete; a singular force of nature whose physical gifts allow him to warp the geometry of the court in his favor. Thompson occupies a similar category. He's not as strong as Williamson, but he's somehow even quicker, even more explosive. If we are putting together a ranking of the "best" athletes in the NBA, however we want to define the term, it would be difficult to keep Thompson out of the No. 1 spot.
He's another non-shooting wing/forward/guard combo whose offensive limitations too often dominate the conversation around his game. Thompson needs to work hard on his 3-point shot, but it's hardly a significant limitation. He still gets two feet in the paint whenever he wants, skating past slow-footed wings and overwhelming smaller guards. Thompson is a remarkable acrobat at the rim, where he's capable of finish over or around the defense, depending on his in-the-moment preference. If the MVP was awarded on style points alone, I'm not sure we'd be able to classify Thompson as a long shot candidate.
While he does need to ramp up his scoring considerably, Thompson's ability to penetrate and collapse a defense gives him a leg up. Houston is going to funnel the ball in his direction more often this season, even with Durant commanding a significant portion of touches. Before long, Thompson will be unleashed as the Rockets' primary facilitator. He's arguably the most creative passer on a roster that includes both Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard. Beyond the 3-point shot, it's hard to poke holes in his game.
Unlike Williamson, Thompson deploys his athletic gifts to their fullest potential on the defensive end. He's a whirlwind presence off the ball, rotating for weak-side blocks and constantly exploding into what seem like wide-open passing lanes. Thompson's ability to turn the ball over and kickstart transition offense with his speed leads to a lot of easy buckets for Houston.
He rebounds exceptionally well for his position, too. As he gets a longer leash and more responsbilities from his coaches, Thompson is going to stuff the stat sheet in a way few NBA players can. Russell Westbrook won an MVP award almost exclusively because he averaged a triple-double. Thompson probably won't get to that point, but he's going to stockpile numbers in every category — points, rebounds, assists, stocks — all while scoring with extreme efficiency in the paint and making a strong case for All-Defense honors.
If Thompson is just the Rockets' best player next season, which feels imminently possible, and Houston is on the shortlist of best teams in the NBA, don't be surprised if the 22-year-old starts garnering votes for the league's highest honor.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
There's a strong case to be made that Paolo Banchero wasn't even the Orlando Magic's best player last season. He is, however, the clear leader of this team moving forward. The former No. 1 pick fits into an increasingly popular archetype as a playmaking, iso-scoring savant at the power forward position. He's basically Julius Randle with a bit more finesse and even better physical tools. Now Orlando is slated to take a major leap in the standings.
The East is wiiiiiiide open and Orlando looks ready to capitalize. We can discuss Cleveland and New York all day, but are we sure the Magic don't already belong in the same conversation? Between the Desmond Bane trade, the Tyus Jones signing, and the draft night additions of Jase Richardson and Noah Penda, Orlando addressed many of its biggest weaknesses.
Spacing has been Orlando's bugaboo for years. Last season, the halfcourt offense too frequently ground to a halt, even despite the best efforts of Banchero and Wagner. Bane's elite shooting and secondary creation should grease the wheels a bit. Not to mention Jones, the most efficient assist-to-turnover point guard in the NBA, and the return of a healthy Jalen Suggs, whose injury basically sent Orlando from the top tier of the East back to the middle of the pack.
With more shooting around him, now is the time for Banchero to break out properly. He will need to refine his shot selection, but there just aren't many 6-foot-9 forwards who can leverage size and agility in that way. He's a mismatch is almost every setting, capable of bullying his way to points in the paint or finessing his way to mid-range buckets or even pull-up 3s.
Defense will be a sticking point for awards voters, as Banchero has never fully realized in potential on that end, but Orlando has a stalwart defensive apparatus around him and should be one of the top defenses in the NBA. If the Magic take an offensive leap, but Banchero leading the charge, that will be a difficult team to beat, especially in the regular season, when depth and durability are so important. Orlando just hammers you for 48 minutes a night and the roster is built to withstand the rigors of an 82-game season.
Only 22 years old, this will be Banchero's fourth NBA season. It's easy to forget how much room a player of his caliber still has to grow. If Orlando can ascend to the level fans and NBA pundits all expect, it wouldn't be the least bit shocking if Banchero's name starts floating around the MVP conversation.