Though it is not the be-all and end-all, five teams are generally sitting in a different class from the rest of the league when it comes to the current betting market. To be clear, the Oklahoma City Thunder are in a tier of their own, with the betting market illustrating a virtual coin flip for OKC against the field. After that, it is the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, New York, and San Antonio Spurs in some order, which also happens to reflect the current NBA standings in a near spot-on way.
That, of course, does not mean that those are the only five teams that can win the title, but it does mean that squads like the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves are perhaps left wondering which side of the "contender vs. pretender" ledger that they fall on right now. Below, we'll render a decision on each of the three teams, acknowledging the uncertainty that persists in early January.
Los Angeles Lakers: Pretender
On the morning of Jan. 9, the Lakers are 23-12, and LeBron James has appeared in only 18 of the team's 35 games. On the surface, that is wildly encouraging for Los Angeles, but a deeper look points to that top-line profile being misleading in terms of the team's actual quality.
For one thing, the Lakers are just 16th in the NBA in net rating (-0.5), and they have been outscored by their opponents this season. Net rating isn't the only statistic that matters, but it is usually a rather strong indicator, and it points to Los Angeles being closer to a league-average team than an elite one. In fact, the Lakers are sitting between the Atlanta Hawks (17th) and Orlando Magic (15th) in that metric, and neither of those teams are being included in "contender" conversations at the midway point.
In the positive column, one might also offer that James is back and playing well, which is certainly true and encouraging. However, the Lakers have not been meaningfully better (by the numbers) with James on the court this season, and while he is a modern marvel, it is worth noting that James is 41 years old and not quite the same player that he once was. The bigger concern, though, is that the Lakers roster simply isn't inspiring after the top three of James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves. In fact, Los Angeles might have the weakest bench of any potential contender, and as the team with the No. 21 defense in the NBA right now, it is hard to take the Lakers all that seriously... even with Doncic playing at an MVP level to go along with James and Reaves.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Contender
It is fair to say that Minnesota has consistency issues that manifest too often in maddeningly inept performances. Still, this is a team with back-to-back trips to the NBA's Final Four on its resume, and the Wolves appear to be rounding into form. After a relatively slow start, Minnesota is 15-5 in the last 20 games. Over that sample (beginning on Nov. 29), the Wolves have the NBA's record and boast top-six marks in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Anthony Edwards is unquestionably the face of the Wolves franchise, and he is putting together an All-NBA season that could net some down-ballot love in the MVP race. However, Minnesota remains a defense-first team that has performed well in playoff setting. The Wolves have the No. 6 defense in the NBA this season and, very quietly, Rudy Gobert is performing at a Defensive Player of the Year level. In fact, the Wolves have a tremendous 106.9 defensive rating when Gobert is on the court, and isn't backed up by fluky numbers on the margins.
To be clear, Minnesota still slots behind the likes of Oklahoma City, Denver, and Houston in the West, with the Spurs right on the heels of those teams. But it wouldn't be crazy, at all, to place Minnesota alongside San Antonio in the challenger category, and they are a proven Conference Finalist with a very similar cast of characters.
Boston Celtics: TBD
Yes, the "TBD" is a copout, but there's a reason.
By the numbers, Boston is clearly a contender right now. The Celtics have the best (!) net rating in the Eastern Conference, outscoring opponents by a stunning 7.7 points per 100 possessions. That is buoyed by the league's No. 2 offense, trailing only Denver, and the Celtics continue to boast elite marks from the three-point line and in ball security. Jaylen Brown is playing at a fantastic level, averaging 29.7 points per game and seemingly never missing a mid-ranger jumper, and Joe Mazzulla might be an actual wizard.
On the flip side, Boston's overall talent level is not that of a title contender. To their credit, they've masked that with execution, coaching, and Brown's superstar turn, but in a playoff setting, there is every reason to be skeptical about the Celtics being able to hold up.
Except, however, if Jayson Tatum returns.
There's the reason for the "TBD," as Tatum is a proven top-10 player in the world who is currently sidelined with the Achilles injury. To be clear, no one should expect Tatum to come back and be that player this season, but rumblings persist that he could take the floor at some point by the end of the regular season. If, by some miracle, he can return to a near-star level by May, more doors open for the Celtics.