NBA Draft Lottery Karma rankings: Which team deserves to win the No. 1 pick?

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place in Chicago on Sunday, May 10 at 3 p.m. ET, when randomized ping-pong ball combinations will determine the top four picks in June's main event. A total of 13 teams (11 of whom missed the playoffs) will have a chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick in a loaded draft, with the looming threat of imminent anti-tanking measures, which are set to take effect in 2027.

For many teams, this will be their best chance at adding a foundational, franchise-altering talent for a while. The stakes couldn't be much higher. Some teams deserve that chance more than others. Let's rank them all by who actually should win in a just world:

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC)

Nope. Nuh uh. No thanks!

12. Golden State Warriors

Golden State has been on the decline for years and has fumbled multiple lottery picks under Steve Kerr. While the Dubs deserve some credit for sticking it out and at least trying to salvage Stephen Curry's twilight years, this is not an organization that needs or particularly has earned the No. 1 overall pick. Any entertainment derived from watching [X Top Prospect] and Steph together will dissipate in a couple years when Golden State's Hall of Fame point guard retires and the Dubs are left relatively hollow.

11. Miami Heat

Look, man. Pat Riley could really use a lucky break. The Heat are admirably committed to never tanking, which is in theory good for the product. But it has also left the Heat stuck in no-man's land, devoid of marquee talent and slowly fading from the national conversation.

While it would admittedly be fun to see Erik Spoelstra get his hands on AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson, the Heat won 42 games this past season and we can bank on their presence in the Play-In Tournament, at least, almost every season. Bad teams need the No. 1 pick more than Miami, especially since the Heat should eventually attract another star in free agency or via trade. It's South Beach.

10. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP or MIL)

We can penalize the Hawks for fumbling the Zaccharie Risacher pick a couple years ago, but then again, that draft was brutal. There weren't a ton of clear, great options Atlanta passed on. The Hawks new front office also deserves credit for even being in this position, despite a dominant second half to the season and a playoff berth.

The Hawks pulled a rabbit out of a hat in acquiring New Orleans' unprotected first-round pick (and swap rights with Milwaukee) to move down in last year's draft. Derik Queen was the Pelicans' prize, and he was quite fun as a rookie, but Atlanta now has the sixth-best odds at No. 1 in a loaded draft. A good team playing it smart along the margins certainly deserves credit.

9. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets came out of the gate slow and appeared destined for another year of tanking. Then LaMelo Ball got healthy, Kon Knueppel blossomed into a historically proficient rookie shooter, and the Hornets became the most dominant non-playoff team in NBA history. Literally, Charlotte set an NBA record for point differential in wins. When the Hornets were on, very few teams could keep up.

There is still some volatility, obviously. Charlotte missed the playoffs after all. But if feels like the Hornets are turning the corner, with a great clubhouse, a talented playcaller in Charles Lee, and a front office that has learned the right lessons from the team's past failures. The Hornets don't need the No. 1 pick to take another leap, but honestly, it'd be the most fun outcome.

8. Dallas Mavericks

Dallas did not deserve the Cooper Flagg pick, but Dallas fans absolutely did. The Mavs have since fired Nico Harrison, hired Masai Ujiri, and restored a respectability to the organization. Flagg's rookie season was predictably awesome, and the Mavs were frisky for long stretches of the season, even with Kyrie Irving on ice as he recovered from knee surgery.

The Mavs certainly don't need back-to-back No. 1 picks, as the future is already bright. But for a fanbase that endured the greatest betrayal in recent history less than two years ago — and for a team that got its you-know-what together after the Flagg golden ticket — it wouldn't feel completely unfair to give the Mavs their second foundational piece in a couple months. This team was bad because of injuries, too. Not deliberate tanking. Flagg played in 70 games and was asked to do a lot when available.

7. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers didn't tank on purpose the whole way through. There was an effort to compete with Pascal Siakam, but it just never materialized. This team is a shell of itself without Tyrese Haliburton. This was a planned gap year, as there's no way around a torn Achilles. We can't blame Indy for playing the cards how they lie.

Indiana also took a bold risk — and affirmed their intention to compete for a championship next season — by trading their pick, top-four protected, to the Clippers for Ivica Zubac. The Pacers are taking a risk and playing the odds mighty close. The sort of gumption deserves credit, even if Indy with an elite prospect and a healthy Haliburton feels a little too rich a reward for the reigning conference champs.

6. Utah Jazz

The Jazz get props to the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade, a bold chips-in move ahead of next year's anti-tanking measures. Utah is clearly preparing to compete for a playoff spot, and Will Hardy is a phenomenal coach who can get them there with good luck on the health front.

That said, Utah was also the most egregious tank engine in the NBA this season. No team more deliberately sat healthy stars in order to rig the odds in their favor. The Jazz have been dealt the short end of the lottery stick in recent years and we should still root for bad teams getting great young players, especially when the NBA's new lottery system in 2027 will make it harder than ever for small-market teams to build through the draft. But c'mon. The Jazz know this season was not karmically pure.

5. Chicago Bulls

It really feels like Chicago hired the right lead executive to dig them out of this hole in Bryson Graham. His opening press conference was a breath of fresh air — as was Michael Reinsdorf's willingness to take accountability for the Bulls' failures, an all too rare occurence over the past several years.

Chicago tried its hardest to win games this season, but finally made a couple smart sells at the deadline and embraced long-overdue change. The league deserves a good team in Chicago and those fans really deserve a lucky break and a brighter future to look forward to. Let's go ahead and get the Bulls back on track.

4. Brooklyn Nets

It's far too early for definitive declarations about the 2025 draft, but Brooklyn's hit rate on their five first-round selections last summer was alarmingly low. Sean Marks has a clear vision, though, rooted in assembling as much ball-handling and high-speed processing as possible. The Nets have also done an excellent job of stockpiling future picks and creating the flexibility needed to build a contender in rapid fashion.

Brooklyn was a blatant tank engine. There's no way around it. But the Nets also need some luck here before the odds flatten out and ownership of their 2027 pick conveys to Houston. Jordi Fernández is a great coach and the Nets competed above their means, which can't be said for every intentionally bad team. Brooklyn fans have been through it over the past decade, too. It wouldn't hurt to throw them a bone.

3. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis finally bit the bullet and dealt Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. within the span of a year, and Ja Morant should follow them out the door soon enough. The Grizzlies fell into a bombastic tank spiral over the second half of the campaign, but this is a good front office that almost never misses in the draft. Their competence and their ability to develop winning players in a small, unglamorous market deserves some sort of reward.

Oftentimes when a lottery outcome feels "rigged," it's because that team recently purged its star(s). See: the Dallas Mavericks last year. Memphis is doing it in a more ethical and less stupid fashion than Dallas, at least. The Grizzlies picked the right time to turn the page. Hopefully their front office is rewarded accordingly.

2. Sacramento Kings

It's important to consider not only the front office, but the fans in an exercise like this. And while Sacramento's front office has the worst track record in the NBA by a country mile, that fanbase deserves something to look forward to, really more than any other fanbase in professional sports, give or take the New York Jets and Colorado Rockies.

Sacramento also, to their credit (?), was truly bad this season. Not a manufactured bad. The Kings have an expensive veteran roster that just authentically does not work on any level. That is malpractice from ownership on down, and really the Kings did not earn this. But for that fanbase, a lucky draw and a brighter future feels right. It's time for Sacramento to be a serious basketball team again, ideally for more than a single magical season under Mike Brown.

1. Washington Wizards

Washington has been bad for a while, so there will be pusback to this. That said, their new direction under Will Dawkins is quite promising. The Wizards are building a long, athletic team with a ton of interesting skill sets. Kyshawn George, Will Riley, Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly — these are all two-way talents with positional size and a chance to contribute to winning basketball in the near future. It created a perfect ecosystem for a sharpshooting gunner like Tre Johnson. And the Trae Young and Anthony Davis trades, while divisive, were proof of Washington's desire to start winning.

The Wizards added two established stars for practically nothing. The Wizards were a tank engine, sure, but it was not the result of sitting healthy stars or manufacturing incompetence. The Wizards gave their youth a long leash and tried to build positive habits, positive momentum, through all the losing. Washington hasn't felt like a serious team in a decade, but the tide is slowly turning. The Wizards should really start to progress with the No. 1 pick and a focus on winning ballgames.

More NBA Draft news and analysis:

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow