2026 NBA Mock Draft: Bucks, Heat and Hawks win huge in final pre-lottery projection

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Sunday, May 10 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC. In a secret Chicago backroom, four randomized ping-pong balls will determine the first four picks in the draft — and by extension, the order of the entire top 14. This is a loaded class and the stakes are high.

Here are the odds:

And, without further ado, our pre-lottery Tankathon simulation provides no shortage of chaos as we prepare for what could be a make-or-break evening for several of the NBA's most directionless franchises:

1. Atlanta Hawks (via MIL): AJ Dybantsa, F, Brigham Young

Height: 6'9
Wingspan: 6'11
Weight: 210
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

This is a dream outcome for the Hawks, parlaying the Derik Queen trade into a franchise-changing talent after a second-half surge and a postseason berth. Atlanta's first round flameout was embarrassing, no doubt, but it's hard not to be encouraged by their overall progress over the last couple months. AJ Dybantsa kicks things into a higher gear.

Dybantsa put together the best freshman scoring season for a wing since Kevin Durant. He's a physical specimen, with uncommon fluidity and deception in his movements. Dybantsa applies constant pressure on the rim, he's a prolific pull-up threat in the mid-range, and he should round into one of the more comprehensive three-level scorers in the NBA. He's a better passer than he gets credit for, too, if still developing. The primary focus in Atlanta will be getting Dybantsa up to speed on defense, where he falls asleep too often.

>> Read our AJ Dybantsa scouting report

2. Miami Heat: Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas

Height: 6'5
Wingspan: 6'10
Weight: 205
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Darryn Peterson is a fascinating "Heat Culture" pick after his confounding freshman season at Kansas, which saw the former top recruit miss significant time due to cramping and other injury issues. Eventually, that missed time led folks to question Peterson's competitive spirit. Those doubts are unfounded, to be frank, but it's a prominent narrative all the same.

Miami sorely lacks star-power at the moment, so this is a lucky draw for Pat Riley. Peterson's effortless off-ball shooting and versatile defense were his calling cards with the Jayhawks, partially because he was rarely operating at full capacity and partially because Kansas' spacing was atrocious. Peterson applied more frequent rim pressure and created more for teammates in high school. Miami can hope he's back to 100 percent and ready to take over the offense next to Bam Adebayo.

>> Read our Darryn Peterson scouting report

3. Milwaukee Bucks (via NOP): Cameron Boozer, F, Duke

Height: 6'9
Wingspan: 7'1
Weight: 250
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 18

Cameron Boozer won the Wooden Award, following in the footsteps of fellow Duke phenom Cooper Flagg. Boozer put together a more impressive season statistically, but given the strength of this class, the nitpicking around Boozer's perceived weaknesses is amplified. Boozer will need to prove he can defend adequately in space and translate his bully-ball, below-the-rim style to the pros.

Overwhelmingly, the indicators are that Boozer will thrive in the NBA. He's a lights-out shooter and an absurdly versatile offensive hub, capable of thriving in a variety of roles and play types. He's built like a tank and prepared for NBA physicality, and his brain just works at a higher frequency than others in this range. As Milwaukee prepares to potentially move on from Giannis Antetokounmpo, they can't ask for a better pivot.

>> Read our Cameron Boozer scouting report

4. Chicago Bulls: Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina

Height: 6'10
Wingspan: 7'0
Weight: 215
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

New Bulls executive vice president Bryson Graham arrives with a reputation for talent evaluation and open-minded collaboration, which is the change in tune this Chicago front office needs. It feels like bigger and better things are on the horizon for the Bulls. A move up in the lottery and a chance to add Caleb Wilson would only further elevate spirits in the Windy City.

Wilson missed the NCAA Tournament with a fluke hand injury, but he put together some incredible freshman tape on both ends. He's a hellacious, world-consuming defender, able to cover large areas as a helper and deter shots at the rim with his effortless bounce and fervent aggression. He crashes the glass, hard. On the other end, Wilson dunks everything and has the coordination to attack downhill with force. If he can stretch out to the 3-point line more consistently and refine his touch below the rim, stardom awaits.

>> Read our Caleb Wilson scouting report

5. Washington Wizards: Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois

Height: 6'6
Wingspan: 7'0
Weight: 185
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

No prospect was able to rise up draft boards quite like Keaton Wagler this season. He went from an unheralded, often unranked recruit out of suburban Kansas to a potential top-five draft pick in the span of a year, leading Illinois all the way to the Final Four. Wagler's athletic limitations are well-documented, but he's a nuclear shooter with positional size and a sky-high basketball I.Q., which tends to carry weight in today's NBA.

Regardless of whether or not Washington can smooth things over with a restless Anthony Davis, the goal is clearly to compete next season — especially with lottery odds set to flatten out and a weaker 2027 draft on the horizon. The Wizards don't necessarily need another guard, but there's still a best player available element to this range. Wagler feels like the right balance between a win-now pick and upside; he can step in and bomb 3s, connect dots, and potentially run the second unit when Trae Young sits. Given his size (and with the benefits of NBA strength development), the hope is Wagler isn't too pronounced a target on defense.

>> Read our Keaton Wagler scouting report

6. Los Angeles Clippers (via IND): Darius Acuff Jr., G, Arkansas

Height: 6'3
Wingspan: 6'6
Weight: 190
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Darius Acuff Jr. was the most dominant freshman guard in recent memory. There is natural apprehension with smaller point guards — especially those with Acuff's defensive shortcomings — but he was too undeniable a force for Arkansas. In the NBA, surrounded by more adequate defenders and with better spacing, there's reason to believe Acuff can put a team on his back. The Clippers would face a hard decision with Acuff and Darius Garland on the roster, but Acuff's stock is simply that high.

What's remarkable about Acuff, beyond the shot-making flurries and the highlight-reel shooting, is his poise. He never gets sped up or knocked off course. He's built with NBA strength, able to manipulate the defense out of pick-and-rolls, absorb contact on drives and deliver crisp, timely passes from every angle. Acuff is the ultimate floor general, but he's also comfortable floating off-ball, stepping into movement 3s, and playing the connector. He's malleable, and he'd be the youth infusion Los Angeles so desperately needs.

>> Read our Darius Acuff Jr. scouting report

7. Brooklyn Nets: Kingston Flemings, G, Houston

Height: 6'4
Wingspan: 6'9
Weight: 190
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Kingston Flemings radiates the leadership qualities and intelligence NBA teams want in a potential franchise point guard. He's a sharp processor who moves at warp speed, able to consistently tilt a defense and apply rim pressure with his unmatched first step. Flemings' efficiency waned late in the season, but he creates such good looks and displays excellent touch. There's no reason to believe he won't be a dangerous three-level scorer in time.

Brooklyn loaded up on guards in last year's draft, but the hit rate was low. Flemings offers another exciting speed element next to Nolan Traoré, while positioning Egor Dëmin as more of a spot-up threat and connector, which is probably his ideal long-term role. More than his incredible two-way talent, Flemings just seems like a winning personality. He's going to interview well and the Nets hope to contend next year. Flemings was thrown directly into the fire under Kelvin Sampson at Houston and he thrived. He's built for the moment.

>> Read our Kingston Flemings scouting report

8. Utah Jazz: Mikel Brown Jr., G, Louisville

Height: 6'5
Wingspan: 6'7
Weight: 190
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 20

Utah gets the shortest possible end of the stick, but it's hard to complain with how deep this class is. Mikel Brown Jr. has arguably the highest ceiling of all the guards in this mid-lotto range. His freshman season was violently unstable, partially due to play style and partially due to injury. When Brown is on a heater, though, the man can touch the heavens.

The Ainges love their twitchy, dynamic guard creators. Brown puts the ball on a string and expertly shakes defenders around in the pick-and-roll, capable of roping creative passes to all corners of the floor. He gets to the foul line a bunch. He's an efficient rim finisher and a deadeye pull-up shooter with endless range. Brown needs to refine his shot profile and develop a mid-range counter, but he's an imaginative and explosive talent who could push Utah to the next level.

9. Sacramento Kings: Nate Ament, F, Tennessee

Height: 6'10
Wingspan: 6'11
Weight: 207
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Nate Ament entered the season with top-five aspirations and ended it pondering a return to school. He ultimately declared for the draft and still feels lottery-bound, even if there are more than a few red flags on his profile. It's hard for NBA scouts to not roll the dice on wings with Ament's blend of size, fluidity and shooting touch. Especially since he can defend better than other "project" wings in a similar vein.

Ament's core issues are rooted in poor burst and strength. He can't create separation going toward the basket and he struggles to finish among the trees. And yet, Ament was purposeful in attacking the lane this season and he drew a bunch of fouls, which is promising. He was also a knockdown free throw shooter with feathery touch and a high release on mid-range pull-ups, so teams needn't worry about his middling 3-point numbers. The Kings are the exact type of organization — often for worse, not for better — to reach on perceived upside and pedigree. And "fit."

10. Memphis Grizzlies: Labaron Philon Jr., G, Alabama

Height: 6'4
Wingspan: 6'6
Weight: 175
Class: Sophomore
Draft Age: 20

Labaron Philon reinvented himself as a sophomore, taking on workhorse duties for Alabama and far exceeding preseason hype. Philon was a very good complementary piece as a freshman, but there were concerns about his razor-thin frame and the long windup on his jumper. Philon added critical lower body strength this season to better handle contact, draw fouls and hold the line on drives. He also ramped up his pull-up shooting with tremendous success.

Philon's frame will still make him a target for opposing offenses, but he competes like hell on that end of the floor, which is half the battle. For Memphis, with Ja Morant halfway out the door already, Philon is a potential generative engine to take his place. Zach Edey's thundering screens and Memphis' vast collection of gravity shooters and long, athletic wings ought to help Philon maximize his talent.

11. Dallas Mavericks: Brayden Burries, G, Arizona

Height: 6'4
Wingspan: 6'6
Weight: 205
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 20

Brayden Burries isn't necessarily the prototypical Masai Ujiri prospect, but the fit is too strong. Dallas needs backcourt help and it's hard to imagine a better setup for Burries in this range. With Kyrie Irving as the primary setup man and Cooper Flagg slashing from the wing, Burries can drill spot-up 3s, drive against a tilted defense and showcase his strengths as a play-finisher and a connector.

Perhaps the top selling point for Burries after a productive freshman season at Arizona, however, is his defense. Burries was the primary on-ball stopper for the Wildcats. He's built like a mini-tank, able to guard up a position or two and stonewall the point of attack. His elite anticipation skills, flanking the high-energy Flagg and a premier rim protector in Dereck Lively, could bump Dallas into the upper echelon of NBA defenses before long.

12. Golden State Warriors: Aday Mara, C, Michigan

Height: 7'3
Wingspan: 7'7
Weight: 240
Class: Junior
Draft Age: 21

A dominant NCAA Tournament run punched Aday Mara's ticket into the lottery conversation. He was the best rim protector in college basketball last season — a mountainous presence with endless arms and elite instincts around the paint. He will be limited to drop coverage, but Mara changes the geometry of the court and forces opponents to think twice about venturing down the lane.

Golden State has tried and failed to add a quality center next to Draymond Green for years. Change is on the horizon for the Dubs, but regardless of which direction the franchise goes, Mara's elite defense is a valuable anchorpoint. He's also a brilliant passer, whether it's rocketing an outlet pass or pinpointing open shooters on the short roll. His feel and connective attributes ought to meld beautifully with Steve Kerr's offensive philosophies, assuming Golden State's future Hall of Fame coach sticks around.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan

Height: 6'9
Wingspan: 7'3
Weight: 240
Class: Senior
Draft Age: 23

Yaxel Lendeborg will turn 24 as a rookie, which puts him in questionable company for a potential lottery pick. That said, he's been on NBA radars for a couple years now and this past season was too special to ignore. Lendeborg has exhibited the consistent growth necessary to buy into his upward trajectory as a professional prospect.

For OKC, this feels like a no-brainer. Lendeborg should help straight away as a switchable, committed wing defender and help-side rim protector. He hit spot-up 3s efficiently and at high volume as a senior, while his interior scoring — once a major question mark — is now a resounding strength. Lendeborg became a Swiss Army Knife superstar for the reigning champs at Michigan. Now he's on the 'NBA star in his role' track, with the perfectly edgy temperament for an increasingly villainous OKC squad.

>> Read our Yaxel Lendeborg scouting report

14. Charlotte Hornets: Hannes Steinbach, F, Washington

Height: 6'11
Wingspan: 7'1
Weight: 220
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 20

Hannes Steinbach received minimal national attention on a bad Washington team, but he was incredibly productive as a freshman. His international track record is equally strong, which places him firmly in the lottery mix. Charlotte needs frontcourt help, especially at the power forward spot. Steinbach, with the frame of a Greek statue, is the best rebounder in the class and a savvy team defender. He's the perfect salve to what still ails these Hornets.

Steinbach's lack of rim protection and low 3-point volume are common points of criticism, but the touch indicators hint at long-term viability as a shooter. He's not a shot-blocker, true, but that can be masked next to Ryan Kalkbrenner and Moussa Diabaté. Steinbach's smooth straight-line attacks and bully-ball post skills can also introduce a fun new wrinkle to a dynamic, pace-and-space Hornets offense.

15. Chicago Bulls (via POR): Cameron Carr, G, Baylor

Height: 6'5
Wingspan: 7'2
Weight: 175
Class: Junior
Draft Age: 21

Cameron Carr, a former top recruit, spent a couple years on the shelf at Tennessee before breaking out at Baylor. He rapidly emerged as one of college hoops' most explosive offensive stars — a nuclear off-ball shooter with an unguardable high release and the springy athleticism to feast on backdoor cuts and lobs.

Critics will point to Carr's limited on-ball utility, but he's going to warp defenses with his motion, deep range and fearlessness as a shot-maker. He should thrive on an athletic Bulls team built to ramp up the tempo. He's also an outlier-good rim protector on the wing who covers a ton of ground defensively.

16. Memphis Grizzlies (via PHX): Allen Graves, F, Santa Clara

Height: 6'9
Wingspan: 7'0
Weight: 225
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Allen Graves mostly came off the bench as a freshman at Santa Clara, but he lit up analytics models with his efficient 3-point shooting and robust defensive playmaking numbers. Memphis tends to lean on the numbers and take unconventional swings, especially in this mid-first round range (see: Cedric Coward).

Graves will fly around on defense, create turnovers and help protect the rim from the weak side. He didn't show much off-the-dribble utility this season, but that's a role issue more than anything else. There's tremendous upside with the right developmental program, and Memphis checks the right boxes.

17. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHI): Dailyn Swain, F, Texas

Height: 6'8
Wingspan: 7'0
Weight: 225
Class: Junior
Draft Age: 20

Dailyn Swain is the most underrated star bet in the 2026 draft. He's a special athlete on the wing — a wiggly, slippery ball-handler with an electric first step and the speed to apply constant pressure on the rim. In short, he's built for OKC's whirling drive-and-kick offense.

Swain also has the versatility and quick hands to thrive as part of OKC's stout defensive ensemble. He will need a patient hand to develop his rickety 3-point shot, but Swain's movement skills and playmaking flashes, at his size, are a rare blend.

18. Charlotte Hornets (via ORL): Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky

Height: 6'11
Wingspan: 7'5
Weight: 255
Class: Sophomore
Draft Age: 18

Jayden Quaintance was a 17-year-old freshman at Arizona State when he tore his ACL. The hope was that he could return to form and solidify his stock as a top-10 pick at Kentucky, but setbacks kept Quaintance on ice for all but four games.

Still, he's one of the youngest players in the class and his defensive tape — at his age — hints at superb upside. A team willing to gamble on his injury history could unearth a real hidden gem. Quaintance joins the aforementioned Steinbach, Kalkbrenner and Diabaté in Charlotte's frontcourt rotation, giving the Hornets a variety of looks and skill sets to unleash depending on the matchup.

19. Toronto Raptors: Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa

Height: 6'4
Wingspan: 6'6
Weight: 190
Class: Senior
Draft Age: 22

Toronto admirably pushed Cleveland to seven games in Round 1, but ultimately their lack of dependable halfcourt shot creation and floor spacing was too much to overcome. Stirtz would help a bunch.

He's on the older side, but Stirtz's durability, ball control and advanced feel all mean he can help the Raptors next season. He never turns it over, he's a prolific 3-point shooter and there are few (if any) better pick-and-roll manipulators on the board.

20. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Karim López, F, Mexico

Height: 6'9
Wingspan: 7'1
Weight: 220
Class: International
Draft Age: 19

Karim López established himself as the top international prospect with two years of steadfast improvement with the New Zealand Breakers as part of the NBL Next Stars program. López is a slippery slasher with the strength and agility to provide an exciting complementary scoring element to a championship-ready Spurs offense.

San Antonio has never been afraid to look beyond U.S. borders in the draft. The Spurs also need more size and dynamism in the frontcourt outside of Victor Wembanyama, whose all-encompassing defensive presence can hide some of López's lapses on that end.

21. Detroit Pistons (via MIN): Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford

Height: 6'2
Wingspan: 6'6
Weight: 197
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Ebuka Okorie was a relative unknown coming into the year, but he was as productive and impressive as any freshman guard in college basketball. His smaller stature and score-first mentality could hamper his stock, but the pure talent — the frequent, scheme-busting advantage creation — could be enough to keep him in the first round mix.

Detroit's rocky seven-game opening round victory over Orlando illuminated their need for another reliable shot creator behind (or next to) Cade Cunningham. Okorie can fill it up at all three levels and tilt the defense to shift the Pistons' offense into gear.

22. Philadelphia 76ers (via HOU): Morez Johnson Jr., F, Michigan

Height: 6'9
Wingspan: 7'2
Weight: 250
Class: Sophomore
Draft Age: 20

Morez Johnson Jr. was the third wheel in a historically dominant Michigan frontcourt, but he will get a chance to carve his own path in the NBA. Philadelphia needs more physicality, rebounding and defensive versatility at the four spot, all of which Johnson provides in spades. He can also thrive in the occasional small-ball five look.

Johnson's low 3-point volume raises questions about the breadth of his offensive skill set, but he was efficient — both from long range and at the rim, with a healthy free throw clip. The touch is there, so he should function as an immediate complement to Philly's uber-talented core.

23. Atlanta Hawks (via CLE): Henri Veesaar, C, North Carolina

Height: 7'0
Wingspan: 7'2
Weight: 225
Class: Junior
Draft Age: 22

Atlanta could use a bit more beef in the frontcourt behind Onyeka Okongwu. Henri Veesaar passed on a massive NIL payday to focus his attention on the draft. With other top bigs returning to school, a path has opened up for Veesaar to solidify his first round status.

He's not the elite rim protector Hawks fans yearn for, but Veesaar is a massive presence and a smart, sound anchor in drop coverage. More importantly, he's a skillful interior scorer and occasional pick-and-pop threat, with the short roll passing chops to really make this Hawks offense sing.

24. New York Knicks: Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas

Height: 6'5
Wingspan: 6'6
Weight: 185
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

It was easy to overlook Meleek Thomas amid the Darius Acuff show at Arkansas this season, but Thomas was an efficient high-volume shooter and a prolific defensive playmaker, with the jitterbug handles and electric first step to develop into something greater offensively.

The Knicks could use another source of shot creation on the perimeter. Thomas has the size to play next to Jalen Brunson and he won't compromise New York's defensive integrity in the second unit. There's a lot of untapped potential here. Thomas could be a huge pre-draft riser once teams see him in workouts.

25. Los Angeles Lakers: Amari Allen, F, Alabama

Height: 6'7
Wingspan: 6'11
Weight: 205
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 20

Amari Allen is the latest freshman breakout under Nate Oats at Alabama — a little-known recruit turned possible first-rounder. Absent the ideal run-jump big man to pair with Luka Dončić, the Lakers bolster their wing depth in anticipation of LeBron James' looming retirement (or free agent exit).

Allen's below-the-rim athleticism could limit his ceiling, but every NBA team needs big, skilled wings in Allen's mold. He defends multiple positions, grabs rebounds with a purpose, and offers the all-valuable dribble, pass, shoot offensive skill set. Allen was an efficient spot-up shooter, but he can use his frame and crafty gear shifts to attack closeouts, pressure the lane and distribute on the move.

26. Denver Nuggets: Christian Anderson Jr., G, Texas Tech

Height: 6'3
Wingspan: 6'5
Weight: 178
Class: Sophomore
Draft Age: 20

Christian Anderson's slight frame is going to be a major hurdle at the next level, but after an exceptional sophomore campaign in Lubbock, it's easy to see the vision. He led the Big 12 in assists, patiently probing and picking opposing defenses apart in the pick-and-roll. He was also among the most dynamic perimeter shooters in college basketball.

Denver could use a proper backup point guard to run the second unit and spell Jamal Murray more effectively. Anderson has the stretchy shot-making to complement Nikola Jokić and the sharp setup skills to keep the offense afloat without him. Whether he can defend or put consistent pressure on the rim will determine how far he goes.

27. Boston Celtics: Tarris Reed Jr., C, Connecticut

Height: 6'10
Wingspan: 7'4
Weight: 265
Class: Senior
Draft Age: 22

Tarris Reed Jr. was the driving force behind UConn's third national championship appearance in four years. He's a bludgeoning, slo-mo post scorer, able to meld balletic footwork with unbelieveable strength. Reed also anchors the paint on defense and vacuums up the glass as well as any center in the class.

Boston is expected to undergo major changes this summer after a first round exit. Upgrading the center rotation is priority No. 1 for Executive of the Year Brad Stevens. Reed has the IQ and the nuts-and-bolts big man traits to positively impact a championship-caliber team from day one.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DET): Tounde Yessoufou, F, Baylor

Height: 6'5
Wingspan: 6'9
Weight: 215
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 20

Tounde Yessoufou was impressively productive for a freshman, despite less-than-stellar offensive process. He's a burly, explosive downhill slasher and a highly competitive defender, with all the intangibles to remind one fleetingly of fellow Baylor product VJ Edgecombe.

Yessoufou will need to become a more dependable shooter, however, and he's far too loose with his handle to consistently manufacture clean looks for himself. Still, the tools and the attitude are worth a late first round gamble for Minnesota. He fits the nasty streak of this Wolves squad.

29. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SAS): Chris Cenac Jr., C, Houston

Height: 6'11
Wingspan: 7'5
Weight: 235
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Chris Cenac Jr. was up and down as a freshman, but he's forged in the fire of a Houston program with limited margin for errors. His improvements as a rebounder and a defender were meaningful, and enough for NBA scouts to dream on his considerable upside.

The Cavs could use a skilled, malleable third big to work into the rotation behind Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Cenac is a pretty jump shooter with tantalizing flashes of mid-range shot creation. He settles for too many bad shots and struggles to apply force on the interior, but there's a rare blend of size and skill here.

30. Dallas Mavericks (via OKC): Koa Peat, F, Arizona

Height: 6'8
Wingspan: 6'11
Weight: 235
Class: Freshman
Draft Age: 19

Gauging Koa Peat's NBA stock is a real challenge. He did nothing but win in high school and college. He's a high-level competitor with a pro's frame, always happy to through his weight around on defense and bludgeon mismatches in the post.

That said, it's difficult to map out an ideal fit for a traditional power forward who doesn't really protect the rim, defend in space at a super high level, or space the floor. Peat will need to ramp up the 3s eventually. Dallas can bet on the intangibles, though — and reunite Peat with Arizona teammate Brayden Burries, giving the Mavs some built-in chemistry.

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