The 2026 NBA Draft class should be loaded with elite talent and landing in the top four could be a franchise game-changer. Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa are the consensus top three, with Caleb Wilson of UNC slotted No. 4 on most big boards.
The allure of these special freshman has already warped how a number of team are approaching the last half of the season, with suspicious decisions by the Jazz and Wizards (among others) drawing accusations of shameless tanking. Expect plenty more shenanigans as the season winds down, but if it wrapped up today here's who would be in the driver's seat for those top picks.
NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today:
TEAM | RECORD | TOP 4% | No. 1% |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Kings | 14-48 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
2. Pacers | 15-46 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
3. Nets | 15-45 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
4. Wizards | 16-44 | 48.1% | 12.5% |
5. Jazz | 18-43 | 42.1% | 10.5% |
6. Hawks (via NOP) | 19-43 | 37.2% | 9.0% |
7. Mavericks | 21-39 | 32.0% | 7.5% |
8. Grizzlies | 23-36 | 26.3% | 6.0% |
9. Bulls | 25-36 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
10. Bucks | 26-34 | 13.9% | 3.0% |
11. Trail Blazers | 29-33 | 9.4% | 2.0% |
12. Thunder (via LAC) | 29-31 | 7.1% | 1.5% |
13. Hornets | 30-31 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
14. Spurs (via ATL) | 31-31 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Right now, the three best odds at the No. 1 pick belong to the Kings, Pacers and Nets — three franchises headed in very different directions. The Kings came into this season trying to be competitive and, instead, have completely cratered. They are short on young talent, are loaded with expensive veterans and things could get worse before they get better. Landing the No. 1 pick could certainly speed things up but they have a terrible recent track record in the draft and no developmental success to speak of. All that is to say, AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson may be rooting hard for the Kings to not land at No. 1.
The Pacers are in a much stronger position, coming off an NBA Finals appearance last season and falling off a cliff in large part because Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season recovering from an Achilles tear. They landed Ivica Zubac at the trade deadline and could be adding a top pick to a strong core of Haliburton, Zubac, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. If Haliburton is healthy this is a strong playoff team in the East and any of the top rookies would have the chance to play meaningful minutes for a competitive team right off the bat.
The catch with Indiana is that they only keep their pick if it stays in the top four, if not it goes to the Clippers as part of the Zubac trade. So lottery odds may be as important to the Pacers as anyone else in this top group.
And then there are the Nets. They're near the bottom of the standings but have a breakout star in Michael Porter Jr., a solid young big in Nic Claxton and several intriguing rookies from last year's draft. Egor Dėmin has averaged 10.3 points, 3.3 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game this season, shooting 38.5 percent from beyond the arc. Nolan Traoré, Drake Powell Ben Saraf haven't been as consistent but they've all shown flashes. There is a lot to like on this roster and some internal development along with a budding star could have them chasing a Play-In spot next year.
There is just as much drama at the bottom of the lottery standings as there is at the top, with a slew of teams fighting hard to get themselves into the Play-In and through to the playoffs. The Trail Blazers have their eyes on the postseason and, with the easiest remaining schedule, a real chance to make it happen. But if they jump out of the lottery their first-round pick will be handed over to the Bulls.
The other thing to keep an eye on here is competitve teams in position to land big picks. The Hawks own the Pelicans' unprotected first-rounder thanks to last year's draft-night, Derik Queen trade. Atlanta is 31-31 on the season but 5-1 since the All-Star Break and currently has a 37.2 percent chance of jumping into the top four. Then there are the Thunder who are the defending champs, have the second-best record in the league and own the Clippers unprotected first-rounder with a 7 percent chance of landing in the top four.