A rebuild blueprint: How the Bucks can use the next six months to build a contender around Giannis

NBA fans have suffered through years of Giannis Antetokounmpo trade discussion, usually hypotheticals shaded as something more by media members chasing drama. It may all seem like smoke and mirrors, but we're as close as we've been. Giannis hasn't formally requested a trade, but we keep hearing reports that his representation is discussing options with the Bucks. His usual firm verbal commitments to Milwaukee have become vague and open-ended.

Of course, his recent calf strain adds another wrinkle, expected to keep him off the floor for the next four-to-six weeks and through the trade deadline. That doesn't mean he can't be traded, but analysts like Zach Lowe thinks it's likely this keeps him in Milwaukee through the end of the season. If he's right, the Bucks have one more chance to reset around him and convince him that there is still a championship future for him in the only home he's ever known.

The odds are stacked against them, but there's a path through. Here's how I would do it.

Step 1: Trade Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr. and a future first to the Kings for Malik Monk, Devin Carter and Keon Ellis

The Bucks need help everywhere but aren't going to be able to address every need before the beginning of next season. That means picking and choosing the most important ones and chasing cohesion and an intentional system, not just upgrading talent.

Kuzma has been an absolute disaster, and his trade value is basically nil at this point. KPJ has shown flashes and is putting up solid numbers, but the Bucks will ultimately have to choose between him and Ryan Rollins. And finally, Gary Trent Jr. has fallen off so far that he may very well pick up his player option for next season at around $3 million. From a financial perspective, this is kind of a negative for the Bucks as Monk has an extra year on his deal beyond Kuzma's and Ellis is an unrestricted free agent who will need to be re-signed, but it's a worthwhile first step.

The Kings have been trying to dump Monk's contract, but he's quietly having one of the best years of his career, shooting 42.7 percent from beyond the arc and averaging 20 points per 36 minutes. He's a proven bench scorer who can work on and off the ball and will add some electric shot creation that the Bucks are sorely missing right now.

Ellis has struggled with his shot a bit this year, but he's a ferocious and versatile wing defender who's made 41.5 percent of his career 3-pointers. The Bucks will have to include a first-round pick to pry him away from Sacramento and then commit to re-signing him, but they can push that pick out into the future and put some reasonable protections on it and Ellis' upside is worth it.

Finally, Carter hasn't been able to find a spot in a spot in the Kings' rotation in either of his first two seasons. But it's hard to know how much is him and how much is the context of playing for the Kings. He was the No. 13 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, seen as a steal at the time and projected as one of the best backcourt defenders in the class. Even if he's just a ball-pressure specialist at the point of attack, he could be useful at the end of the roster.

Step 2: Trade Bobby Portis and Cole Anthony to the Clippers for Bogdan Bogdanović

Portis has been a key contributor for the Bucks for six years, and his 3-point shooting is very valuable. But he's now 30, his defense and athleticism have declined, and the Bucks have to get themselves some financial flexibility. Here they can move him and Anthony for Bogdanović, who has a $16 million team option, hopefully improving the draft position along the way.

Step 3: Decline the team options on Bogdan Bogdanović and Andre Jackson

Declining their option on Bogdanović opens room to sign Ellis. Andre Jackson can stuff the stat sheet and has shown some flashes. But he's still a terribly unreliable shooter, and the cap space he can provide is needed if Gary Harris, Jericho Sims and/or Taurean Prince pick up their team options.

Step 4: Draft a point guard at No. 8 or a top prospect if they get lucky in the draft lottery

The Bucks still have their own first-round pick this year, and this is their biggest opportunity to add an elite talent to the roster. If they end up staying around No. 8, where they're currently slotted, the move is probably to grab a point guard like Kingston Flemings, Mikel Brown Jr. or Labaron Philon Jr.

All three are likely to be in the mix at the draft range, and all could work for a Bucks team that needs backcourt scoring. Of the three, Flemings is probably the most appealing — even though he has less upside as a primary facilitator, his scoring upside and defensive chops could be huge. Here's what FanSided draft expert Chris Kline had to say about Flemings in his latest Big Board.

"He's still evolving as an on-ball engine, but Flemings can deliver basic reads out of the pick-and-roll. He's at his best attacking closeouts, probing, and spinning it to a backdoor cutter. He puts constant pressure on the rim and tends to capitalize on the resulting defensive breakdowns. Flemings’ at-rim and mid-range numbers are bonkers, and yet it feels sustainable. He’s generating havoc as a defender, he’s comfortable with or without the basketball on offense, and he stepped into an immediate leadership role on a team full of established upperclassmen. Just a super impressive dude all around."

The other possibility is that they fall in the standings, move up in the lottery and get a crack at one of the top three prospects in this elite class — Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer and AJ Dybantsa. Of the three, Dybantsa may make the most sense for Milwaukee with his size and offensive skillset:

"AJ Dybantsa is the consensus No. 1 pick most other years due to his outlier tools and athleticism. An immensely talented scorer with plus NBA size, Dybantsa has settled in nicely at BYU. He scores prodigiously from all three levels, with a special knack for mid-range pull-ups and coordinated downhill attacks. His ability to mix speeds, extend advantages and deploy equal measures of touch and acrobatics at the rim, all hints at a supremely high offensive ceiling."

Step 5: Use their cap space wisely

To make it fun from here, let's say the Bucks jump up into the top-four in the NBA Draft lottery — there's currently a 23.1 percent chance of that happening, but that should increase as they lose more often with Giannis out over the next few weeks. For this exercise, I'm going to give them Dybantsa.

The next big question mark is what Jericho Sims, Taurean Prince and Gary Harris do with their player options. They all have utility, to varying degrees, cheap bench players, but the Bucks would probably rather have the cap space. If all four decline, the Bucks would have these seven players under contract and — with the $22.5 million cap hit from stretching Damian Lillard — still have about $16 million in cap space. They could use that to re-sign Ellis to something like a four-year, $60 million deal, locking in a strong starting five and the beginnings of a solid bench in Monk, Carter and Dybantsa.

That would also, in theory, give the Bucks access to the full mid-level exception. Some dream scenarios for that money would be the Thunder declining team options for Isaiah Hartenstein or Lu Dort, making them unrestricted free agents who have to settle for contracts at a much lower value than their last one. Tari Eason and Quentin Grimes are probably both out of their price range, but maybe things get tight with either of them and the Bucks swoop in. Another interesting fall-back option would be signing Jeremy Sochan to an offer sheet that the Spurs don't want to match.

From there, they'd need to use minimum deals to fill out the rest of the roster and make sure they have enough depth.

What the Bucks roster could look like next year

That's a 12-man roster that keeps the Bucks about $6 million under the tax and has room for a few fliers on veterans or young players on two-ways. On paper this is far from the top of the Eastern Conference, but the bones of a playoff team are here.

The starting lineup has three fantastic defenders in Turner, Giannis and Ellis. It still relies a lot on Giannis and Rollins for offensive creation, but it's loaded with shooting and can comfortably play four-out around Giannis. Need a bit more creation, Monk comes in for Green. Need a defensive upgrade, Ellis slides down to shooting guard, Sochan comes in for Green and Carter comes in for Rollins. Want to play small and run other teams off the floor — Giannis goes to the 5 and Dybantsa comes in to play the 4.

Maybe we're still talking about a 45-win team that would have to fight its way in through the Play-In, but there is upside here. If Keon Ellis has more offensive versatility than he was able to show in Sacramento. If Dybantsa is more Paolo Banchero than Ace Bailey. If Rollins or Green have another level. If Monk can play like Sixth Man of the Year again. If Carter can back to who he was as a draft prospect, averaging 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 steals per game and shooting 37 percent on 3s as a 6-foot-2 guard at Providence. If Sochan can be a difference-maker with his defense and passing.

It's a lot of ifs, but it's also enough that they don't all have to go Milwaukee's way. Two or three of them breaking right could be enough to push them toward 50 wins. Regardless, this is a team with more youth, energy and versatility than the ones they've run out around Giannis the past two years. It's short on high-level of experience but with the shooting, speed and aggressive, competitive defenders it could be enough to sell him on their future potential.

And if not, they haven't really sacrificed any future flexibility, still have Dybantsa and a bunch of young players with potential. They could still trade Giannis over the summer or next February if it's not working, but it's worth a shot.

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