The NBA Draft Lottery is supposed to favor teams in desperate need of a rebuild. If your team is one of the three worst teams in the league, you are more likely to get the No. 1 pick, even with the flattened odds.
Fluky things can still happen with this imperfect system, like the Dallas Mavericks winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes with a 1.8 percent chance last year. Honestly, the fluky lottery results have been the norm as of late. The worst team in the league hasn't won the lottery since 2019. The worst team has gotten the fifth pick in three consecutive years.
With the lottery no longer automatically rewarding the bottom-barrel teams with a top-three pick, three teams that aren't in desperate need of an overhaul could be players in the 2026 NBA Draft: The Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, and Oklahoma City Thunder.
The 2026 NBA Draft has been regarded as special because there are three players who would go No. 1 in most drafts. Landing a top-three pick is like winning the lottery this year. It'll be terrifying if any of those teams land in a top-three slot.
The current NBA Draft Lottery odds would shake up the league
TEAM | RECORD | TOP4% | NO.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Wizards | 1-11 | 52.1% | 14.1% |
2. Pacers | 1-11 | 52.1% | 14.1% |
3. Nets | 1-10 | 52.1% | 14.1% |
4. Hawks (via NOP) | 2-9 | 48.1% | 12.5% |
5. Kings | 3-9 | 39.9% | 9.8% |
6. Mavericks | 3-9 | 39.5% | 9.7% |
7. Thunder (via LAC) | 3-8 | 31.9% | 7.5% |
8. Grizzlies | 4-9 | 26.3% | 6.0% |
9. Thunder (via OKC) | 4-8 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
10. Hornets | 4-7 | 13.9% | 3.0% |
11. Celtics | 6-7 | 9.4% | 2.0% |
12. Grizzlies | 6-6 | 7.1% | 1.5% |
13. Warriors | 7-6 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
14. Bulls | 6-5 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Spin the Tankathon 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Simulator 10 times, and the Indiana Pacers will land in the top three more than once. The Pacers have one win in the middle of November, but it's completely understandable.
This isn't your typical tank. The Pacers lost their engine in Tyrese Haliburton for the season in the Finals, and Myles Turner took his talents to the Milwaukee Bucks over the summer. As of this writing, Bennedict Mathurin, TJ McConnell, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin have missed a combined 38 games. Indiana doesn't have the horses with their injuries, but that will change if their draft chances stay put — right now they have a 14.1 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 52.1 percent chance of landing in the top four.
Imagine Haliburton throwing hit-ahead passes to any of Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, or Cameron Boozer. The 2026 NBA Draft big three are completely different archetypes, but Haliburton is so portable that he's a glove-fit with all of them.
Dybantsa or Peterson would be the go-to scoring isolation bailout options in Indy. They made the Finals last year, but that mold of player with that kind of talent pushes them up a level. Opponents would have very strong feelings towards the Pacers if they had to navigate a potential Haliburton/Boozer pick-and-roll.
Indiana is in a unique spot with this gap year. They can see what's what with their current roster, and the future is right in their grasp if they land one of the top picks. A finals team getting their engine back and a bona fide can't miss prospect will shatter the Eastern Conference for years to come.
While the Pacers have a shot at glory through their own control, the Thunder and Hawks are praying on the downfall of the Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans.
OKC owns LA's 2026 pick, and Atlanta robbed Joe Dumars and the Pelicans in broad daylight. Derik Queen could be a monster, but the process of that trade will forever be questioned.
In case you're keeping track at home, that's a 34 percent chance that the No. 1 pick goes to either Atlanta, Indiana or Oklahoma City.
Some call the Thunder greedy, but it's been outstanding team management on their part. The deals they've made over the years have relevance every draft season with their boatload of picks. OKC is already the best team in basketball with an all-time net rating. They shouldn't be close to sniffing one of these prospects, but here we are.
The Clippers are off to a brutal start, and the punches keep rolling in. Bradley Beal is out for the year, Chris Paul is racking up CD-DNPs, and they own the second-worst defense in basketball, per Cleaning the Glass.
Defense has been a Clippers staple in the Ty Lue era. They won't turn their season around if they can't fix that part of their armor. OKC is hoping they don't. The Clippers stinking doesn't guarantee the best outcome for the Thunder, but boy, if they do actually get their hands on one of those picks, we should consider cancelling the NBA. OKC is already on potential dynasty watch; a top-three pick this year would be overkill.
The Hawks aren't in need of a major overhaul, but they were far from Conference winners like the Pacers and Thunder were last year. You can make the case that it's time to trade Trae Young and rebuild around Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dyson Daniels. Trae has value somewhere in the league, and we haven't seen the best from those three.
Throw in a superstar talent like Peterson, Dybantasa, or Boozer, and the assets you receive from the Trae trade should put Atlanta in the best young core conversation.
Keeping Young around and selecting one of the big three isn't a horrible decision either. That would be a conglomerate of talent, and too much talent is a good problem for the most part.
These teams don't have the outlook that the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards have. They have a clear direction and franchise cornerstones. Adding one of the prolific prospects to any of these rosters sets up that franchise to contend for all the marbles for the next decade.