The Deni Avdija trade turned into a masterstroke for the Blazers and a disaster for the Wizards

When Deni Avdija was traded from the Washington Wizards to the Portland Trail Blazers back in 2024, it was generally viewed as a win-win move. The Blazers took a flyer on an intriguing young player who was coming off a career-best season.

On the other hand, the Wizards fully leaned into their rebuild, getting the No. 14 overall pick, (which became Bub Carrington), a solid veteran presence in Malcolm Brogdon, the second-most favorable of either Boston's, Milwaukee's or Portland's 2029 first-round pick and two second-round picks.

At the time, this seemed like a solid haul for Deni, who certainly had some upside, but after four seasons looked more like a high-end role player than a future star. Now, this trade looks like an absolute fleece for Joe Cronin in the Blazers, and the Wizards have to be kicking themselves for trading Deni away.

Avdija had an All-Star campaign, averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists this season. And after a spectacular 41-point performance in the Play-In Tournament, we can officially say that Deni was the primary offensive engine for a playoff team. Undoubtedly, Avdija will garner some All-NBA and Most Improved Player votes.

This trade isn't as lopsided or noteworthy as other big trades in recent years (cough, cough, the Luka Dončić trade), but it's safe to say the Blazers made out like bandits.

Trading for Deni Avdija transformed the Portland Trail Blazers

While many people defended the Wizards' thought process at the time, truthfully, the signs of Deni making a leap were there. During his last season in Washington, Avdija averaged 14.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. It was always clear that Deni's blend of playmaking, finishing, and defense made him, at the very least, an elite role player.

Since he made a sizable leap during the 2023-24 season and was still just 23 at the time, the possibility of another jump was always there.

I've always likened Deni's game to that of Franz Wagner, a jumbo-sized point forward who excels at getting to the rim. This archetype should be cherished in the modern NBA, and the Blazers saw the vision. As Deni was empowered more on the ball, it became abundantly clear that he was more than just a nice gadget player. His season-long numbers don't reflect a sizable leap last year, but after the All-Star break, Deni averaged 23.2 points, paving the way for a breakout 2025-26 season.

I'll explore the Wizards' philosophy shortly. However, I'd like to note the Blazers were a summer removed from trading Damian Lillard and were widely expected to enter a multi-year tank job after finishing 15th in the West in the 23-24 season. The Blazers didn't commit to this philosophy, though; instead, they saw a chance to add a quality young player to their core and didn't pass up on that opportunity even if it cost them some lottery balls.

Trading for Jrue Holiday (who, by the way, has been absolutely integral to their success) and later signing Jrue last summer signaled their rebuild was over. Let us not forget that the Blazers' win on Tuesday ensured that the Chicago Bulls would get their pick.

Amid all the discourse about tanking, the Blazers just gave the rest of the NBA a lesson on how to rebuild quickly.

Trading away Deni now looks like a disastrous decision for the Wizards

Now onto the Wizards' side of things -- which will be, well, a lot less positive. As mentioned earlier, Bub Carrington was used with the draft pick from the Deni trade. I don't want to be too sour on a player who has just completed his second year, but Carrington has been underwhelming. The biggest problem is that he hasn't gotten to the rim enough (0.7 rim attempts per game this past season), and he has been inefficient when he has gotten to the rim (50 percent).

Malcolm Brogdon played 24 games for the Wizards in 2024-25 and eventually retired before this season. On top of this, the second most valuable 2029 pick between Milwaukee, Boston, and Portland projects to have minimal value. That's an awful return for a possible All-NBA player.

The Wizards' logic behind the Deni trade is that he was a couple of years ahead of their young core. A logic that team president Michael Winger has since doubled down on.

You wouldn't have been able to win fewer than 20 games with Avdija even if he didn't blossom into a star. But if you believed in Deni long-term, who cares? It's not like Deni's game would have disrupted their core.

The Wizards have learned the hard way that playing the lottery odds is risky, and they would have been much better off keeping Deni around with other young players, even if he wasn't a perfect fit with their timeline. Trading for Trae Young and Anthony Davis clearly accelerates the Wizards' timeline. As such, even though they won't publicly admit it, it's clear their logic with trading Deni was always flawed.

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