Maybe flying under the radar is just how Illinois likes it.
In a South region everyone assumed would run through top-seeded Florida or hometown Houston, it was instead the Illini who punched their ticket to the Final Four — the emotional culmination of a 20-year wait for a desperate fan base, not to mention a lifetime of grinding from a hard-scrabble head coach. But their moment in the sun would last less than 24 hours, thanks to one of the most spectacular buzzer-beaters in the history of March Madness.
And now, with the field set, it feels like Brad Underwood's team has already become an afterthought, without the star power or the pedigree of the other three programs who will be battling it out in Indy this weekend. If you want to write them off, though, you do so at your own risk, because this is a team more than capable of shocking the world.
Illinois is the forgotten team in this loaded Final Four field
You know that meme with the three-headed dragon, where two of the heads are ferocious and the third looks like a Saturday morning cartoon character? It feels like that's how everyone is treating this year's men's Final Four, with Illinois as the punchline — that is, if they're remembered at all.
Which makes a certain amount of sense. One semifinal features a pair of powerhouses in Arizona and Michigan, two absolutely loaded top seeds that spent much of the season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and were barely tested in their respective regions. (Neither won a game by single digits; average margin of victory: Arizona 20.5, Michigan 20.) And Illinois' own opponent on the other side of the bracket? None other than UConn, winners of two of the last three national titles and with a coach that has a knack for remaining at the center of every conversation.
I'm not about to argue that the Illini should enter Indianapolis as the odds-on favorites to cut down the nets. They haven't been as impressive as the Wolverines or Wildcats, and they clearly haven't mastered whatever dark March magic Dan Hurley has managed to harness. I'm simply saying that if you're operating under the assumption that the Michigan-Arizona matchup is a de facto national title game, or that the Huskies are simply unkillable this time of year, you should maybe adjust your priors. Because while Illinois is an underdog, they're not to be ignored, with a unique style that could absolutely lead them to two more victories.
Why Illinois can absolutely win its first national title in Indy
It wasn't that long ago that Illinois was sitting at 20-3 overall, 11-1 in the Big Ten and in line to nab a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. Of course, they wound up as a No. 3 for a reason: The Illini hit the skids over the last month or so of the regular season, dropping five of their last nine games — including a one-and-done at the Big Ten Tournament. But all five of them came against tourney competition, and three of them came in overtime. It's easy to make the case that this team doesn't profile all that differently from the heavyweights they're about to go up against; in fact, they're still No. 4 overall over at KenPom, behind Michigan and Arizona and well ahead of UConn.
The constant is the most ruthlessly efficient offense in the country, with freshman point-forward Keaton Wagler at the controls. An afterthought coming out of high school, the 6-foot-6 Wagler has remade himself into a high lottery pick in this summer's NBA Draft, with a lethal stepback 3, great feel and passing chops and a bit more off-the-dribble juice than you'd expect. Squint, and it looks a bit like the college version of Luka Dončić: a below-the-rim athlete who is nevertheless a one-man offense who can control whole games by dictating tempo.
Which is another way in which Illinois can level the playing field this weekend. No matter how much teams like Michigan and Arizona might want to get out in transition and use a more free-flowing, pro style in which their talent and athleticism can thrive, the Illini make it brutally difficult. Wagler is never in a hurry, and he's surrounded by literally the tallest roster in the country — with 7-foot brothers Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic inside and length at every position, it's no wonder that Illinois ranked No. 3 in the nation in offensive rebound rate this season. Underwood and Co. want to drag you into a half-court game, confident that they can tilt the math in their favor.
The bellwether all year long has been defense. When the Illini are clicking on that end, as they were in the first half of the regular season, they're one of the very best teams in the country. When they're not playing with the force you'd expect of a team with their raw size — as they were during their late-season swoon, giving up 84 or more points in all five of their losses from February on — they're all too beatable. But the former is what we've gotten so far in the NCAA Tournament: After holding both VCU and Houston to just 55 points, Illinois hounded Iowa's Bennett Stirtz into an uncharacteristically poor performance, constantly putting arms in his line of sight and forcing more turnovers in one game (2) than he'd had all tournament to that point (1).
The road will only get tougher from here. UConn has championship DNA and a perpetual motion machine of an offense that can wear down just about anybody. Michigan and Arizona both look like buzzsaws. But the combination of Wagler and a monstrous frontcourt are great equalizers, two things that no one else in the country — not even the Wolverines and Wildcats — can boast. And after the run they've had so far, why wouldn't they believe?