Miami (OH) went undefeated through the regular season, 31-0. That placed the program in rarefied air and established it as everyone's favorite Cinderella well before the NCAA Tournament actually begins. That said, the underlying metrics never quite painted the RedHawks as a serious contender, considering their complete lack of quality wins and tissue-soft non-conference schedule (though the latter point isn't exactly their fault). They would have a chance to remove all doubt and guarantee an NCAA Tournament bid as the No. 1 seed in the MAC Tournament.
Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Miami (OH) entered the MAC Tournament as the top seed with a perfect 31-0 regular season record.
- The RedHawks suffered an upset loss in their opening game against a team with a sub-.500 conference record.
- This unexpected result could force the selection committee to leave out a traditional bubble team next week.
Unfortunately, Miami fell 87-83 to a 17-15 UMass squad on Thursday in their MAC tourney opener. A Quad 4 loss leaves Travis Steele's squad in a somewhat precarious position ahead of Selection Sunday, but it could have even more severe implications on other bubble teams.
Will Miami (Ohio) make March Madness?
Almost certainly, yes. The selection committee has never left out a team with at least 29 regular-season wins, much less a perfect 31-0 record. While the RedHawks have zero Quad 1 wins and a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 362 out of 365 teams, their strength of record is 21st. No matter the competition, it's hard to win 31 straight, especially as a mid-major team under an unusually large microscope.
This means the MAC will be a multi-bid conference, once Akron or somebody else claims the autobid. That is not normal, and it could have significant implications on the rest of the tournament field. The RedHawks just opened the door for a classic bid thief, with ESPN's Joe Lunardi projecting them among the first four teams in. Miami (OH) is probably in Dayton for the First Four early next week.
For bigger-market teams with less convincing at-large résumés, this Miami (OH) loss adds an extra layer of uncertainty ahead of Selection Sunday. There's always a chance the committee breaks with precedent and decides to leave the RedHawks out for reasons largely outside their control — it's not Miami's fault nobody wants to schedule a MAC team that wouldn't add much to the resume with a win but could cripple it with a loss — but that would qualify as a genuine shock. Which means that some other bubble team will be left out to make room for the RedHawks.
Here are some of the teams who could suffer because of Miami's untimely first loss.
Bubble teams who could miss the NCAA Tournament because of Miami (OH)
Auburn Tigers
Auburn went 4-12 against Quad 1 opponents this season and finished 7-11 in the SEC, tied for ninth in the conference. Steven Pearl is a first-year head coach. He has a talented roster, with a handful of future NBA players in Tahaad Pettiford, Keyshawn Hall and Sebastian Williams-Adams. But for all the Tigers' offensive firepower, the defense has suffered massively this season, and Johni Broome's absence has left an unfillable void. The Tigers are really straining credulity as a bubble team right now, although a win over Tennessee in the SEC Tournament on Thursday could change the calculus considerably.
Texas Longhorns
Another questionable SEC bid comes from Austin. The Longhorns were bounced early in their conference tournament, finishing at 18-14 overall with a 6-9 Quad 1 record. Their non-conference strength of schedule this season ranked 183rd, with a home win over N.C. State being their only real achievement before SEC play began. Sean Miller's team has a case, still, but the Longhorns are playing with fire.
Indiana Hoosiers
Darian DeVries went from Drake to West Virginia to Indiana in a three-year span. Tasked with building the Hoosiers' roster from scratch, he leaned heavily on the transfer portal — with his son, fifth-year senior Tucker DeVries, among his biggest additions. The Hoosiers won 18 games this season and were bounced by bottom-feeder Northwestern in their Big Ten Tournament opener, a bad loss this team can ill afford right now. Indiana only has three Quad 1 wins, with a weak non-conference schedule working against them. There is very little on Indiana's résumé to solidify their claim — 41st in NET, 42nd in offensive rating and 65th in defensive rating at KenPom. This season is probably a wrap, a potential NIT bid notwithstanding.
SMU Mustangs
SMU lost four straight to finish out the regular season. After bouncing Syracuse in the first round of the ACC Tournament, the Mustangs fell flat against a Mikel Brown-less Louisville squad in round two. Boopie Miller went 0-for-8 from deep in what could be a season-ending loss. SMU has four Quad 1 wins and 20 victories overall, which could be enough to sneak in. But with Miami (OH) squeezing the bubble, the Mustangs are in a precarious position despite a talented, veteran backcourt and plenty of offensive firepower.