The Women's NCAA Tournament tends to be chalkier than the men's side of things. Last year, for example, the first round featured just four games where the higher seed lost, and two of those were 8-9 matchups. By the time the Sweet 16 came around, 13 of the 16 remaining teams were seeded among the top 16 teams initially.
So, upsets happen, but they're definitely rare. No team seeded sixth or better lost in last year's first round — you aren't going to win your bracket pool by picking four 5-12 upsets on the women's side, but there are some upsets that look possible over the first two rounds.
Potential WBB first round upsets
(11) Fairfield over (6) Notre Dame
I don't trust this Notre Dame team. I know Hannah Hidalgo is the real deal, but I'm not sold on the team being able to make a deep tournament run if the defense just focuses on stopping her.
Could the Stags be a team capable of doing that? Maybe, as Fairfield's 80.6 defensive rating ranks 13th-best in Division I. Obviously, the team doesn't routinely face offenses as good as Notre Dame's, but it's worth noting that the Stags are undefeated when holding an opponent under 70, so there's a path to victory here.
That path also involves exploiting a mediocre Irish defense. Fairfield has one of the best mid-major scoring duos in the nation in Kaety L'Amoureaux and Meghan Andersen.
PPG | APG | 3P% | |
|---|---|---|---|
Kaety L'Amoureaux | 17.6 | 4.4 | 36.5 |
Meghan Andersen | 16.0 | 1.9 | 40.4 |
Beating a power conference team won't be easy, but Notre Dame ranks just 126th in the nation in defensive rating and 296th in opponent field goal percentage, so it's certainly a possibility.
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois
The Buffaloes come into the NCAA Tournament with a lot of momentum. The team won eight of nine before dropping its final two regular-season games, moving the team down to the bubble. It swiftly played its way off the bubble, beating Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament and then almost upsetting eventual conference champion West Virginia, falling by a single point, 48-47.
While the Illini are favored here, Her Hoop Stats gives Colorado a 39.3 percent chance of winning this game on a neutral site with a projected margin of just 3.2 points, so it's essentially a toss up, right? Illinois has a great offense and a poor defense, while Colorado has a decent defense and an okay offense, so while that likely favors Illinois, I think the quality of the Illinois defense is bad enough to give Colorado a legit chance here at the upset.
(11) South Dakota State over (6) Washington
This should be an incredibly fun one. You can make a good argument that despite the seeding difference, the Jackrabbits are the better team.
Both of these teams love to slow the pace way down, and both are good offensive teams and mediocre defensive teams. What that should theoretically lead to is a lot of high-quality shots on both ends.
South Dakota State has an advantage due to being a more efficient offense.
Offensive Rating | FG% | 3P% | |
|---|---|---|---|
South Dakota State | 109.6 | 48.4 | 35.1 |
Washington | 102.6 | 44.9 | 34.0 |
Obviously, Washington is more accustomed to playing against good offenses as it's in the Big Ten, which has been a gauntlet this year when it comes to offensive production. Even factoring that in, though, I love the Jackrabbits in this matchup.
(12) James Madison over (5) Kentucky
This is more about Kentucky than James Madison, as the Wildcats really faded down the stretch. Of their 10 losses, eight have come since Jan. 18, and over that span, the team had just two wins over that made the NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, James Madison is just always a tough team to face because the program just knows how to build well-rounded teams. The Dukes are 39th in the nation in net rating and rank in the top 50 in both Her Hoop Stats Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.
We don't really see many 12s beat 5s on the women's side, with it happening just 22 times ever, with none in the past two tournaments. The gap between high and mid-majors is huge, but the Dukes are good enough and the Wildcats shaky enough to bridge that gap.
Potential WBB second round upsets
(5) Michigan State over (4) Oklahoma
Oklahoma has the offensive personnel to win any basketball game, but the team's fast-paced style of play leaves the defense winded at times, which is part of why the team ranks 274th in overall scoring defense. Even accounting for pace, it's 48th in defensive rating, which is solid, but exploitable by the right team.
The Spartans may be a team that can exploit that, as MSU is 10th in the nation in scoring ofense and has a higher offensive rating than the Sooners. While Michigan State doesn't get out and run quite as much, it's no slouch in the pace department, ranking 77th. In theory, the team can keep up with Oklahoma if it has to, and that's bad news for Oklahoma.
More bad news for the Sooners? They've struggled against top teams, going just 1-7 against teams seeded fifth or better in this March Madness field.
(6) Alabama over (3) Louisville
Do we trust these ACC teams? IDK! It was a very down year for the conference, so while Louisville did a great job in conference play, I'm not totally sold that conference play prepared the Cardinals for the NCAA Tournament.
Louisville played three SEC teams this season, going 1-2 in those games, with the win coming against Tennessee, a team that might have made the NCAA Tournament but is definitely also a deeply flawed team.
Meanwhile, Alabama has struggled against elite teams, going 0-6 against teams with a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but outside of that, the Tide lost just four times, with big non-conference wins over Minnesota and Clemson. This is a battle-tested team.