It's not easy to make the Sweet 16 in the Women's NCAA Tournament when your team isn't a top-four seed. See, the 16 teams deemed to be the "best" in the country host the first weekend of the tournament at home, giving them a built-in advantage when it comes to advancing. Last season, for example, the only teams to advance to the Sweet 16 from outside the top four seed lines were No. 5 seeds Ole Miss, Kansas State and Tennessee. That's it.
Taking that into account, let's define "Cinderella" in the context of WBB as a team seeded outside of the top 16, which means they'll have to go on the road for the first weekend. What are the lower-seeded teams that can make a Sweet 16 run?
Texas Tech
Coming into this season, it was fair to wonder if former Texas Tech legend Krista Gerlich just wasn't the right fit as head coach for the Red Raiders. Her teams consistently ran up the score early in the season with a weak non-conference schedule, then faltered once conference play arrived.
But this season, Tech managed to avoid falling into that trap, opening Big 12 play up with a huge win over Baylor before also beating West Virginia during a 6-0 start to the conference schedule. Things were a bit rockier from there, but the team added another win over Baylor as well as one over TCU. This is a team that has shown it can beat very good basketball teams.
Between the scoring prowess of the Bailey Maupin, Snudda Collins and Jalynn Bristow trio and the fact that the team has been elite at rim protection all year, Texas Tech has proven it is tough to defeat. Turnovers and fouls are a bit of an issue, but this group has the talent to overcome that.
Rhode Island
The Rams bounced back from a disappointing 2024-25 campaign with a big 2025-26 season, going 28-4 and winning the Atlantic 10. That earned the team a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Rhode Island landed in an interesting spot in the bracket. Its 6/11 first-round matchup is against Alabama, a team that backed into the tournament, losing eight of its final eight regular-season games before picking up a couple of victories in the SEC Tournament. The most likely second-round opponent would be Louisville, a good basketball team that does have some holes, notably on the defensive end.
The Rams will try to exploit that by slowing the game down and looking for their shots. While the team struggled from beyond the arc this season, it limited its turnovers and worked to get the ball inside. A win isn't the most likely outcome, but it's possible.
Green Bay
The Horizon League champs are a well-rounded group that just posted a fourth consecutive 25-plus win season, but the Phoenix have yet to parlay that into a trip beyond the first round. The team's last first-round win came back in 2012.
Could this season be different? We'll see. Having to face Minnesota in the first round isn't great news — the Golden Gophers are ninth in the NCAA's NET ranking — but having an inconsistent Ole Miss team likely waiting in the second round puts the team in a rare spot where its second game would be easier to win than its first.
While the Phoenix went 0-3 against power conference teams this season, each game was decided by 12 or fewer points, and only losing on the road to Washington by five showcased how good this team could be, scoring 74 points against a Huskies defense that's only allowing 62.2 points per game.
Arizona State
Head coach Molly Miller's first season in Tempe has featured a massive turnaround for the Sun Devils. Seriously: this program looked miles away from contention a year ago and now is heading to the Big Dance.
Having to start out in the First Four won't make things easy for Arizona State, but even that extra game isn't a killer. Virginia is a tough matchup, but the Sun Devils have been better defensively and should be capable of slowing down the Cavaliers. Then would come a meeting with a Georgia team that lost two of its final three games by double digits, then an Iowa team that was blown out by UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament final.
The Sun Devils might not stand out in a particular category, but the team is well-rounded as a whole, minus some issues with 3-point shooting, as they rank 248th in Division I shooting percentage from deep. The team makes up for that by its prowess inside the arc, scoring the 29th-most 2-pointers this season.
Fairfield
The Stags have been a popular sleeper pick over the past couple of NCAA Tournaments, but weren't able to put everything together, losing in the first round to Indiana in 2024 and Kansas State in 2025. Neither game was particularly close, so why would this be the year?
Because this is the best Fairfield team we've seen under head coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis. The defense has played at the same strong level as her previous squads, but this Stags group is averaging 75.5 points per game and has posted an offensive rating of 108.3. All that gives these Stags the best net rating of the three recent NCAA Tournament seasons.
Season | Net Rating |
|---|---|
2026 | +27.7 |
2025 | +24.3 |
2024 | +23.9 |
A big part of this success has been Kaety L'Amoureaux taking a step forward as a scorer. Paired with Meghan Andersen, the duo has made Fairfield tougher to defend this season, upping the team's floor and ceiling. We saw that on display in the season opener, a 12-point win over a good Villanova team, and then really saw it in a huge 20-point win against Richmond. Even in the 14-point loss to Iowa, the offense was humming, putting up 72 points, just three shy of the season average.
Fairfield's path also seems...I wouldn't say easy, but managable. The No. 11 seed Stags face a flawed Notre Dame team in the first round, then an Ohio State squad that struggles on defense and lost three of its final five regular-season games.