The first round of the Women's NCAA Tournament was light on upsets, which is pretty par for the course. The only lower-seeded teams to get wins in the first round this year were No. 9 seed Syracuse over Iowa State, No. 9 seed USC over Clemson and No. 10 seed Virginia over Georgia. Three upsets, and the first two barely count since they were 8/9 games.
There should be more surprises in the second round, as the gap between the two teams on the floor will close dramatically. Here are three upsets I see happening in the second round. This doesn't include an upset I thought would happen pre-tournament (Michigan State over Oklahoma), because the first round changed where I stand on both teams.
(5) Maryland over (4) North Carolina
This is a situation where I just think Maryland is better prepared for the gauntlet of March because of how competitive the Big Ten was vs. how non-competitive the ACC was at times.
That, plus Maryland had one of the best offensive performances of the first round, putting up 99 points against Murray State. The three teams to score more than that were all No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.
The fact that the Terrapins won like that in a game where Yarden Garzon wasn't shooting well shows there's also still room for this offense to improve a bit.
And that's where UNC might have issues, because the Tar Heels have struggled against teams that can score buckets. North Carolina has allowed 70 or more points in a game 10 times all season, going 4-6 in those games. Five of those losses were to teams in the NCAA Tournament.
I'm just a little worried that the Tar Heels lack that extra gear needed in a game like this. This is a deep team, but that depth comes at a cost, which is that I'm not sure who the team has to turn to if it has to have a late bucket in a close game. Lanie Grant has been the one really elite outside shooter, but is the sophomore guard ready to step up in a big moment like this?
(5) Ole Miss over (4) Minnesota
The Golden Gophers pulled away from Green Bay late in the first round, but for much of the game, it looked like the Phoenix were capable of pulling off a major upset and knocking off the No. 4 seed. Green Bay actually led entering the fourth quarter before the Golden Gophers remembered they were the better team, running away with a 30-9 advantage in the final frame.
Ole Miss' game against Gonzaga was close at times as well, but that one's probably a little more forgiving, as Ole Miss dominated for much of the game before the Bulldogs went on a bit of a run in the fourth once the game was essentially out of reach. It's a game where the final score doesn't reflect how dominant the winning side was.
All this is to say that I feel much less confident in Minnesota now than I did at the start of this tournament. The Gophers have been a great story this season, but the way the offense got bogged down against Green Bay mixed with the fact that the team was 63rd in defensive rating this season feel like bad signs for this game.
I've been on the record as being worried about Ole Miss this season, as the team sometimes can feel a bit disjointed, but at the same time, I really wonder if Minnesota has what it takes to slow down an offense led by a player as good as Cotie McMahon. This feels like a game where Minnesota has to both be at its best while also hoping McMahon has a cold night fro the floor. The Rebels are 1-4 when McMahon makes under one-third of her shots, and have lost just once when she shot 44 percent or better.
(10) Virginia over (2) Iowa
Even baking in the "Big Ten teams should be better prepared than ACC teams" theory I mentioned above, I think Virginia can be the only double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16 this season and the first No. 10 seed since 2022.
A big part of that isn't about Virginia, but is about Iowa's struggles on Saturday against Fairleigh Dickinson. The Hawkeyes were shooting the 3-ball like it was made of iron. Just miss after miss, resulting in a 1-for-13 night from deep that kept the Knights in the game until late.
The Hawkeyes have one of the best frontcourts in the nation with Ava Heiden and Hannah Stuelke, who combined for 42 of Iowa's 58 points, but you aren't beating good teams if the rest of your team can't score. Kylie Feuerbach was 0-for-5 from deep and scored one point, which just isn't going to cut it.
Especially because Virginia really impressed me on Saturday. The Cavaliers beat Georgia in overtime behind a huge night from Sa'Myah Smith, who scored 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting, and Kymora Johnson, who led the way with 28 points and was 5-for-10 from deep. Overall, Virginia was 10-for-21 from 3-point land.
If both of these teams play like they did on Saturday, Virginia will run away with this one. Now, I do expect improvement from the Hawkeyes because that was definitely Iowa playing close to its floor, but Virginia has more a player in Johnson who can take over from outside, which the Hawkeyes lack. Virginia has also a key athleticism advantage. This can happen.