Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- As portal season kicks off, recent history shows that landing marquee names doesn't guarantee tournament success or even conference competitiveness.
- Key transfers helped Michigan win a national title but other highly ranked transfer classes, like Kentucky and Kansas State, flopped completely.
- The most effective strategies focus on identifying players who complement existing systems rather than chasing the most decorated profiles.
Portal season has arrived and fans throughout the country are keeping an eye on what has become the equivalent of free agency in college basketball. Several teams have already made huge splashes in the portal, with Michigan landing Tennessee big J.P. Estrella and Louisville getting a pair of commitments from Kansas forward Flory Bidunga and Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad.
There is a bit of hyperbole around portal movement with many viewing the arrival of a top player in the portal as the sign a Final Four run is imminent. While Michigan set a new bar for transfer strategy with an all-transfer starting lineup on its run to a national championship, the Wolverines are more of an exception than the rule.
Take note of last year's top 20 transfer classes as ranked by 24/7 Sports. While the Wolverines checked in at No. 2 and No. 1 St. John's reached the Sweet 16, the fourth highest transfer haul belonged to Kansas State, which finished at the bottom of the Big 12 and fired head coach Jerome Tang in season.
Another infamous whiff came from Kentucky, whose ballyhooed class of prospects saw the Wildcats rank fifth on 24/7. Mark Pope's team had an NIL payroll of a whopping $22 million and couldn't even get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament as their pieces never fit together or suffered serious injuries.
Other notable misses from last year's portal ranks include Creighton, Washington, LSU and Maryland. All four of those programs finished in the Top 17 on 24/7's rankings and weren't particularly close to making the NCAA Tournament, showcasing that adding the best talent isn't a guarantee of success in college basketball.
Roster fit matters more than name value in the portal era
Many programs often treat the transfer portal like free agency in pro sports, simply going for the best available talent to enhance their rosters. NFL fans in particular know that building a team in free agency often doesn't work since the open market leads to overhyped bidding wars for players with flaws.
System fit matters in college basketball, which is what made May and Michigan so successful. While Elliot Cadeau and Yaxel Lendeborg were top portal targets for a lot of teams last spring, May made strategic strikes for his front line with Illinois' Morez Johnson Jr and UCLA's Aday Mara, both of whom were role players at their previous programs.
Johnson and Mara were good fits for how Michigan wanted to build a roster, which emphasized length and the ability to defend using verticality. Even though the presence of guys like Lendeborg and Cadeau gave the Wolverines a strong ranking in the portal world, May worked on assembling a group of players that fit together.
Building a roster primarily of transfers is difficult since you won't know how the pieces fit together until they all arrive on campus. Even though St. John's had the top transfer class last spring, Rick Pitino failed to find a point guard in the group and the Red Storm struggled in conference play before Dillon Mitchell entered the starting lineup as a point forward.
The addition of Bidunga at Louisville is another interesting case because the Cardinals had to spend a lot in NIL to outbid the likes of Duke and St. John's for his services. Bidunga is an outstanding defensive player but his offensive game relies primarily on rim running and lobs, meaning Pat Kelsey will need to recruit other players that work around Bidunga's skill set to create enough space offensively.
The best portal strategy involves a lot of scouting work to identify players who fit the system you want to run rather than just getting the flashiest names available. There is a reason Kansas couldn't get far in the NCAA Tournament either year they had Hunter Dickinson, the best portal big in his class, since they couldn't fit the right players around him.
While it is exciting to see a top player in the portal commit to your program, the next logical question needs to be how they fit into the scheme your coach runs. If the answer isn't an obvious one, it is fair to ask if there is a deeper plan at work rather than throwing cash at a problem in hopes of a quick fix.