The only other conference with a lot to figure out not named the ACC is the American Conference. Between Tulane, Navy and North Texas, the American title game hasn't been decided. Tulane is the favorite to win the conference, but as we’ve seen this year, the American teams have no problem beating one another. That’s why North Texas and Navy still have a shot.
Let’s dive into the tiebreaker scenarios for the top teams in the conference, as well the ones still in the hunt.
Tulane Green Wave
Remaining schedule: vs. Charlotte
Scenarios
- If Tulane wins, they clinch the title game.
- If Tulane loses, they’re out if both North Texas and East Carolina win.
- They own the tiebreak over ECU.
- They lose the tiebreak to North Texas.
The Green Wave handled business against Temple on Saturday and are one win away from locking down a trip to the American Conference title game. But what happens if the 49ers stun Tulane in the season finale? Well, they’d most likely miss out on the CFP and conference title game — if North Texas and East Carolina win. They have the head-to-head win over East Carolina, so they’d still be ahead of them, but North Texas has already beat Charlotte, so they’d be below the Mean Green.
Navy sits atop the American standings, but their spot isn’t secure. They still play Memphis and Army, and because North Texas owns the head-to-head tiebreak over them, a Navy loss combined with North Texas winning out would push the Mean Green into the title game instead.
North Texas Mean Green
Remaining schedule: vs. Temple
Scenarios
- If North Texas wins out while Navy and Tulane both lose, North Texas can reach the title game.
- If Tulane wins out, North Texas still gets in if Navy drops one game.
- A loss to Temple eliminates them unless Tulane and Navy also lose.
- They own the tiebreak over Navy.
North Texas still has a chance to crash the CFP party, but they’d need help. For one, they would need to win out and then need Navy and Tulane to lose as well. If Tulane wins out, North Texas would just need Navy to lose to either Memphis or Army to reach the American title game. North Texas is still on the outside, but they’re not completely out of the race.
If the Mean Green lose to Temple, it would almost certainly knock them out of the American title game contention. The only way they get in with a loss is if Tulane and Navy both lose too.
Navy Midshipmen
Remaining schedule: vs. Army
Scenarios
- If Navy wins out, they reach the title game.
- If Navy loses, they need both Tulane and North Texas to lose.
- They lose the tiebreak to North Texas.
- A two-loss Navy team is almost certainly out.
The easy thing for Navy is that they win out and they get in, but that’s easier said than done. If they do lose, they’d need at least Tulane to lose and definitely need a loss from North Texas. The Mean Green are the Midshipmen’s only conference loss, so the only way they get in with a loss is if North Texas loses too.
The American Conference most likely won’t have a team with two conference losses get into the CFP. The biggest thing for every contender is to simply win out. If every top team loses, the conference would essentially play itself out of the CFP race.
East Carolina, South Florida, Memphis likely out of American Conference title game hunt
East Carolina Pirates
Scenarios
- Must win out to stay alive.
- Needs Navy and Tulane to both lose. Loses the tiebreak to Tulane.
- Still alive mathematically, but very unlikely.
South Florida Bulls
Scenarios
- Losses to Memphis and Navy block any path forward.
- Cannot jump Navy under any outcome.
- Only alive in extreme multi-team chaos.
Memphis Tigers
Scenarios
- Three conference losses remove them from contention.
- Too many teams to leap and not enough games left.
- Only incentive remaining is playing for a 10-win season with a bowl victory.
South Florida was the favorite from the American after they stormed into Gainesville and left with a win. They were even ranked multiple times this year. But when conference play began, the Bulls simply fell apart, and with their collapse left their CFP hopes. They have conference losses to Memphis and Navy. Losing to Navy means they can’t get in over them if they win out. Their other loss is to Memphis, who also played themselves out of contention.
The Memphis Tigers had so much promise this season, but losses to UAB, East Carolina and Tulane squandered their win over South Florida. If South Florida can’t get in at two losses, there’s no way a three loss Memphis team sneaks in, there aren’t enough games for the teams ahead of them to lose. The good thing for Memphis is they can play for the second-straight, 10-plus win season if they win out and win their bowl game. That’s about all they have left to play for.