It felt as if the Miami Hurricanes' fate was already sealed entering Saturday's conference championship matchups. The Hurricanes were on the outside looking in when discussing the College Football Playoff following the latest controversial rankings from the committee, and they did not get to play in a conference championship game. Multiple things would seemingly have to go their way for them to make it to the playoff.
Fortunately, the Alabama Crimson Tide not only lost on Saturday, but they were blown out. How much stock will the committee put in a conference championship game? It's entirely possible that since the Crimson Tide were uncompetitive, they'll be bumped from the playoff picture entirely. That opens the door wider for the Hurricanes to sneak in.
Miami's CFP scenarios after Alabama's SEC title game loss
To be clear, the odds of Miami getting into the playoff even after Alabama's loss are slim. Still, there are more possibilities of this happening following the loss. Let's dive into the scenarios.
Miami gets in if the committee punishes Alabama harshly for SEC title game loss
The easiest way for Miami to get in would be for the committee to punish Alabama very harshly for losing in the SEC title game. This would mean Alabama misses out entirely, allowing both Notre Dame and Miami, two at large schools, to get in.
This probably isn't likely. Alabama does have three losses now, but how much should they be penalized for losing in a title game that teams like Miami and Notre Dame won't even be participating in? Sure, they did get blown out, and that makes it more likely that they'd be bumped from the playoff, but isn't it better that Alabama got to play in the game to begin with? Miami failed to even qualify for the title game in a much worse conference.
Miami gets in if the committee favors head-to-head matchups
Perhaps the most controversial ending to this saga would be for the committee to put Miami in over Notre Dame. Again, this probably isn't likely, since Notre Dame ranked ahead of Miami in the previous rankings and neither team played this week, but it's still a possibility.
The reason for the committee to switch this up would be that Miami defeated Notre Dame head-to-head earlier this season. If two teams are close in the rankings like Miami and Notre Dame are, shouldn't head-to-head be a major factor? Notre Dame has looked better, particularly lately, and Miami's losses look worse than Notre Dame's, but still head-to-head has to have some meaning, right?
Prioritizing head-to-head would also give the committee an excuse to put Miami in as the lone representative of the ACC. Duke's win over Virginia in the ACC title game could cost the conference a single bid. It would be the first time a Power Four conference was left out.
Miami gets left out if the committee overlooks these factors
As mentioned above, a lot will have to break Miami's way for the Hurricanes to make it to the playoff. You can disagree with the committee's decision to have Notre Dame ranked above them, but would it make much sense for there to be a switch-up there, allowing Miami to leapfrog the Irish? Probably not.
The committee also can punish Alabama for their performance in the SEC Title game, but again, would it be fair to knock them out of the playoffs, especially since the teams taking their spot aren't even playing in a conference title game? Notre Dame isn't in a conference, so they're excused, but Miami, again, failed to make the ACC title game.
Alabama losing, particularly in the fashion that they did, opens the door a little wider for Miami to sneak in, but it'd be rather tough to imagine the committee going out of its way to allow the Hurricanes to compete for a National Title.
Projected Miami college football playoff bracket
If (and it's a huge if) the Hurricanes were to make it to the college football playoff, here's a look at what the bracket would probably look like.
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs |
3 | Indiana Hoosiers |
4 | Texas Tech Red Raiders |
5 | Oregon Ducks |
6 | Ole Miss Rebels |
7 | Texas A&M Aggies |
8 | Oklahoma Sooners |
9 | Alabama Crimson Tide |
10 | Miami Hurricanes |
11 | Tulane Green Wave |
12 | James Madison Dukes |
This bracket has Miami taking Notre Dame's spot and earning the No. 10 seed in the college football playoff. This outcome would set up a first-round matchup between the Hurricanes and No. 7 Texas A&M on the road. The odds would be against them to advance to the second round, but Miami fans would like a shot. The committee giving them a break to get in would give them a shot.
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